Official Bubble Watch Thread

[BruinVol]

Wake may win this game. The bubble is getting better and better. 3-1 wouldn't have done it for the Vols.

 

[BruinVol]

Syracuse rpi is 80 even after the Win. Vandy gets in over them.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Syracuse rpi is 80 even after the Win. Vandy gets in over them.

Syracuse
Wake Forest
Rhode Island
Illinois State
---------------------------
Vanderbilt
Kansas State
Illinois

Syracuse and Wake Forest still aren't safe, same for RI and Illinois State, so there are 4 spots still open IMO...3-1 to have the Vols have 17-13 RPI:48 and they'd be right there above Vandy and probably in over RI by a lot of people as well.

 

[BruinVol]

Syracuse and Wake Forest still aren't safe, same for RI and Illinois State, so there are 4 spots still open IMO...3-1 to have the Vols have 17-13 RPI:48 and they'd be right there above Vandy and probably in over RI by a lot of people as well.

One thing we have seen is the rpiforecast was way too aggressive with their forecasts.

If Tennessee had gone 3-1 their rpi would have been 53-55 is my guess.
Everyone else's forecast was way too generous

 

[bleedingTNorange]

One thing we have seen is the rpiforecast was way too aggressive with their forecasts.

If Tennessee had gone 3-1 their rpi would have been 53-55 is my guess.
Everyone else's forecast was way too generous

Vandy and Cuse were both spot on, not sure what you mean?

 

[BruinVol]

Vandy and Cuse were both spot on, not sure what you mean?

No they weren't. Two weeks ago 3-1 for Vandy showed an RPI in the 30s and 2-1 for Syracuse in the low 70s.

Remember when you were mocking me for saying Syracuse was going to get in with an 82 rpi after they lost to Ga Tech?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

No they weren't. Two weeks ago 3-1 for Vandy showed an RPI in the 30s and 2-1 for Syracuse in the low 70s.

Remember when you were mocking me for saying Syracuse was going to get in with an 82 rpi after they lost to Ga Tech?

No, I recall saying that number was gonna be 90, and I remember that 100%

 

[bleedingTNorange]

17-14(9-9) RPI of 90 and they're in? I don't think so.

Bump for Bruin

 

[BruinVol]

No, I recall saying that number was gonna be 90, and I remember that 100%

And you said an 81 was good enough?


Rpiforecast has been proven wrong

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

hopefully this game gives the players some life. Make it to the sect final, and get a high nit seed. I'd love to beat uk one more time.

If you are predicting us to go that far, I'll take it a step further. Win the SECT and get an autobid to the big dance. It's just the difference in winning one more game right? I'd like to see what kind of dance moves RB has left in the tank

 

[BruinVol]

This was part of a story on TOS written on 2/12 using rpiforecast


Syracuse- 16-10, 8-5, 72 RPI, 52 Sos, 18-13(predicted RPI 71), 19-12(predicted RPI 57), 20-11(predicted RPI 46)


You will see RPIforecast was 10 pts off predicting Syracuse at 18-13 as they are currently 81.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

This post was from over 2 weeks ago, below are the only teams who's projected records were correct...

Expected records per rpiforecast...

Michigan State: 18-13(10-8) RPI:46 SOS:11
Kansas State: 19-12(8-10) RPI:61 SOS:58
Georgia Tech: 16-14(8-10) RPI:84 SOS:45
Syracuse: 17-14(9-9) RPI:85 SOS:42

RPI numbers now:

Michigan State: 48 +2
Kansas State: 58 -3
Georgia Tech: 96 +12
Syracuse: 81 -4

So overall on average those projections were off by 1.75, pretty damn accurate and definitely not remotely close to "way too generous" except for 1 outlier.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

And you said an 81 was good enough?


Rpiforecast has been proven wrong

Not sure what one has to do with the other, was I mocking you for saying Syracuse was gonna get in wth a loss to GT and a RPI of 82, or was I mocking you for saying Syracuse was gonna get in with a loss to GT and a RPI of 90 like I said?

 

[BruinVol]

This post was from over 2 weeks ago, below are the only teams who's projected records were correct...



RPI numbers now:

Michigan State: 48 +2
Kansas State: 58 -3
Georgia Tech: 96 +12
Syracuse: 81 -4

So overall on average those projections were off by 1.75, pretty damn accurate and definitely not remotely close to "way too generous" except for 1 outlier.

Lol

Nice try on the cuse but they are 18-13 not 17-14

 

[BruinVol]

Here is another example of the forecast being way too generous


Providence 15-11, 66 RPI, 36 SOS, 18-13(predicted RPI 68), 19-12(predicted RPI 55), 20-11(predicted RPI 45)

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Lol

Nice try on the cuse but they are 18-13 not 17-14

Apolgoies, allow me to correct...

Expected records per rpiforecast...

Michigan State: 18-13(10-8) RPI:46 SOS:11
Kansas State: 19-12(8-10) RPI:61 SOS:58
Georgia Tech: 16-14(8-10) RPI:84 SOS:45

RPI numbers now:

Michigan State: 48 +2
Kansas State: 58 -3
Georgia Tech: 96 +12

So on average rpiforecast overpredicted by 3.67 spots, pretty damn accurate and definitely wouldn't consider that "way too generous".

 

[BruinVol]

BTO

Remember when you said Georgia was good to get in without winning out?

That's because of the rpiforecast was too generous with them. They aren't in the top 50 which you have said was gospel but they are 54. Rpiforecast doesn't work

 

[BruinVol]

Apolgoies, allow me to correct...



RPI numbers now:

Michigan State: 48 +2
Kansas State: 58 -3
Georgia Tech: 96 +12

So on average rpiforecast overpredicted by 3.67 spots, pretty damn accurate and definitely wouldn't consider that "way too generous".

Lol
So in correcting you aren't going to use the Syracuse number now?


I wonder why not.

Well I will use it. That 3.67 number is now 6.17. Tennessee was thought to have had a 48 but add the 6.17 to it and you get an rpi of 54-55 which is exactly what I posted when we started this. That wouldn't have been good enough

 

[FleeceItOut]

I love OK State's arena.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

BTO

Remember when you said Georgia was good to get in without winning out?

That's because of the rpiforecast was too generous with them. They aren't in the top 50 which you have said was gospel but they are 54. Rpiforecast doesn't work

At 17-13 they were projected RPI of 50-51, their RPI is currently 54...another example that is about 3.67 spots off, great example.

 

[BruinVol]

At 17-13 they were projected RPI of 50-51, their RPI is currently 54...another example that is about 3.67 spots off, great example.

So in your mind 3-4 spots isn't significant?

Should we use Providence?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Lol
So in correcting you aren't going to use the Syracuse number now?


I wonder why not.

Well I will use it. That 3.67 number is now 6.17. Tennessee was thought to have had a 48 but add the 6.17 to it and you get an rpi of 54-55 which is exactly what I posted when we started this. That wouldn't have been good enough

Syracuse's record didn't turn out to be what was projected, did you miss that whole part? I eliminated all teams that didn't meet the projected record, Syracuse included, not sure why you aren't following?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So in your mind 3-4 spots isn't significant?

Should we use Providence?

I don't think it's "way too generous", especially when Kansas State is sitting right there as an example that was undersold.

Why would we, they didn't meet projections?

 

[BruinVol]

Syracuse's record didn't turn out to be what was projected, did you miss that whole part? I eliminated all teams that didn't meet the projected record, Syracuse included, not sure why you aren't following?

Lol. I posted thier projections for 3 different records. One of which was 18-13 and it had a projected rpi of 71 on 2/12


Let's settle this this way.

Go to rpiforecast right now and make the Vandy and lsu games wins for the Vols and see what RPI it spits back at you now.......

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So in your mind 3-4 spots isn't significant?

Should we use Providence?

3-4 spots means Tennessee at 17-13 has a RPI of 51-52, which still makes my point valid, they would be ahead of Vandy by just everyone and probably currently in over Rhode Island...that was the whole point of this conversation.