For the ninth year in a row (and 9 out of the only 10 years I have data for) the team with the best four year recruiting average wins the national championship game. As bowl season concludes, talent averages and the Sagarin ratings were right 56% of the time, while Vegas favorites and ESPN 'FPI' favorites were only right 45% of the time. Admittedly bowl season is more dynamic and harder to predict than the regular season but it appears that the national championship game, with a 90% prediction rate, is the most sure prediction of all (talent averages were the only one of Vegas, ESPN FPI and Sagarin that predicted an Ohio State win).