Official Global Warming thread (merged)

#7,927
#7,927
AM64 said:
Since the earth has already had a few glacial and warm periods, it would make sense to include the cyclic nature of things. The ramp up in a sine wave could look pretty alarmingly like a spectacular trend if you fail to consider the cyclical nature, and that means the measurement has to do with the period (multiples actually) - not a snapshot. Before determining that the climate is a one way ride orchestrated by man; it would make sense to first clearly understand what reversed previous trends. That would imply considering a lot more than a couple of hundred years.
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I believe the Holocene Epoch is enough. 12,000 years. But hey, we've got 420,000 years!

https://www.livescience.com/28219-holocene-epoch.html

Paleoclimatologists can and do use ice cores and other methods such as sea bed sediment deposition to determine temperatures with completely acceptable small margins of error over hundreds of thousands of years.

https://globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/labs/Lab10_Vostok/Vostok.htm

Also, pissing and moaning over the minor deviations in various temperature records is non productive.

http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-cores/ice-core-basics/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/reports/all?dataTypeId=7&search=true

See the chart below. Study it. Understand it. It is from 2.25 miles of compacted snow ice cores over Lake Vostok in Antartica.

NO ONE CAN SAY A REAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IS NOT OCCURING.... WHEN THEY DO, THEY PROVE THEMSELVES TO BE UNPREPARED TO ENTER THE DISCUSSION, OR SADLY, WITHOUT THE MENTAL CAPACITY.

The chart is the Vostok Ice Research Station data for 420,000 years.

Also note that commentaries on the same Vostok Ice Station readings claim the climate change trend as a results of CO2 and CH4 may not be entirely caused by humans as the decrease in carbon dioxide and methane trail the decrease in temperature. The opposite of the expected cause and effect. But, also note the commentarie's charts do not include the data set curves shown on the far righthand side of the chart I included below. These distinctly show unexpected increases across the data sets off the chart.

http://www.collective-evolution.com...ata-suggestss-global-warming-is-not-man-made/

My self? I think making a fuss over the atmospheric pollution only (which does indeed deserve good science) is not taking into account mankind's severe deleterious effects on the whole of the ecosphere. We are shietting our own nest, we've only got the one, and NO ONE can say for certain that if we do not learn to curtail all forms of hazardous treatment of the ecosystem, our children and theirs might have a habitable earth to live on...but it will hell on earth.
 
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#7,928
#7,928
aaand, magically (because it just couldn't have been me forgetting to load it)the chart didn't appear.
 

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#7,929
#7,929
AM64 said:
Since the earth has already had a few glacial and warm periods, it would make sense to include the cyclic nature of things. The ramp up in a sine wave could look pretty alarmingly like a spectacular trend if you fail to consider the cyclical nature, and that means the measurement has to do with the period (multiples actually) - not a snapshot. Before determining that the climate is a one way ride orchestrated by man; it would make sense to first clearly understand what reversed previous trends. That would imply considering a lot more than a couple of hundred years.
Click to expand...
As it turns out, there is an entire field of science called paleoclimatology which is dedicated to this issue.

Here is the recent warming in the context of the last 2000 years:
Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick

Here’s a look back to the most recent ice age, ~20,000 years ago:
Paleoclimate: The End of the Holocene

Zoom out to 800,000 years:
The three-minute story of 800,000 years of climate change with a sting in the tail

What reversed previous trends is fairly well understood. Basically, small predictable changes in the earth’s orbit cause the amount of sunlight reaching our planet to vary. This temperature change, amplified by feedbacks such as changing greenhouse gas concentrations, is what drives the “natural cycles” of climate change. The thing is, these cycles operate over tens of thousands of years. We were due to continue a long, gradual cooling trend which began ~5000 years ago. We’ve reversed the natural cycle. Now, instead, the Earth is warming 50x faster than when it comes out of an ice age. What we’re doing to the Earth has no parallel in 66 million years. We’re putting CO2 into the atmosphere faster than during the last mass extinction. Future CO2 and climate warming potentially unprecedented in 420 million years

This long-term view also offers a valuable perspective on future climate change. It is well recognised that the climate today is changing at rates well above the geological norm. If humanity fails to tackle rising CO2 and burns all the readily available fossil fuel, by AD 2250 CO2 will be at around 2000 ppm - levels not seen since 200 million years ago.

Professor Foster adds: "However, because the Sun was dimmer back then, the net climate forcing 200 million years ago was lower than we would experience in such a high CO2 future. So not only will the resultant climate change be faster than anything the Earth has seen for millions of years, the climate that will exist is likely to have no natural counterpart, as far as we can tell, in at least the last 420 million years."
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Just some perspective
 
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#7,930
#7,930
BartW said:
As it turns out, there is an entire field of science called paleoclimatology which is dedicated to this issue.

Here is the recent warming in the context of the last 2000 years:
Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick

Here’s a look back to the most recent ice age, ~20,000 years ago:
Paleoclimate: The End of the Holocene

Zoom out to 800,000 years:
The three-minute story of 800,000 years of climate change with a sting in the tail

What reversed previous trends is fairly well understood. Basically, small predictable changes in the earth’s orbit cause the amount of sunlight reaching our planet to vary. This temperature change, amplified by feedbacks such as changing greenhouse gas concentrations, is what drives the “natural cycles” of climate change. The thing is, these cycles operate over tens of thousands of years. We were due to continue a long, gradual cooling trend which began ~5000 years ago. We’ve reversed the natural cycle. Now, instead, the Earth is warming 50x faster than when it comes out of an ice age. What we’re doing to the Earth has no parallel in 66 million years. We’re putting CO2 into the atmosphere faster than during the last mass extinction. Future CO2 and climate warming potentially unprecedented in 420 million years



Just some perspective
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Then next year they'll say their numbers are wrong.

Wash, rinse, repeat.
 
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#7,931
#7,931
LouderVol said:
those last two sentences clash. There is nothing negotiable but we have to be part of it so they will work with us?
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We should be participating in the Paris accord if we want to influence the implementation of the Paris accord. That seems obvious.

What part of the framework of the PCA, specifically, would you (or Trump) want to renegotiate? The goal of limiting global warming to 2C? The administration is mum.

If we’re not even going to fake a good faith effort on climate change then I don’t see why other countries would want to work with us.

DEMrCE2V0AAoiAx.jpg


Once Dominant, the United States Finds Itself Isolated at G-20

(SAD!)
 
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#7,933
#7,933
Orangedogsrule said:
I won't requote all Bart's post. But I take issue with the broad brush stroke painting all conservatives as climate change deniers.
That is false.
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I agree and if that was implied I apologize. FTR, I lean to the right, voted Gary Johnson in the last two elections (despite his climate stance), and voted McCain shortly after becoming a citizen in 2008. I’ve voted for a few D’s in local elections where they were clearly more qualified than the opposition but overall I consider myself conservative (maybe not so conservative by TN standards but I’m way right of center in Seattle…). I’ve discussed conservative solutions ITT such as cap-and-trade, pioneered by Reagan and Bush Sr., and a revenue-neutral carbon tax (e.g. volinbham’s carbon dividends thread).

Not all conservatives are climate change deniers, and not all climate deniers are conservative. This one does skew significantly to the right, though. There are other forms of science denial that skew to the left (anti-vaxxers, opposition to GMOs, etc.) but the right owns this one. The whole market fundamentalist view that the government can do no right and private sector can do no wrong is what’s gotten us to this point (well, that and a well-documented decades-old misinformation campaign funded by fossil fuel interests).
 
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#7,936
#7,936
I don't subscribe to the climate change is caused by humans cause and I also don't dismiss it. I also think we can't change it. There is something on the order of 7+ billion people on this earth, most of which are poor as hell and don't care about CO2 emissions.
Good luck.
 
#7,937
#7,937
Grand Vol said:
What's sad is the media that keeps using this picture as the whole "Trump was ostracized at the G20."
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Yeah, I'm sure he spoke to somebody besides Putin while he was there :p

Globalism is out and isolationism is in, right? I think the picture is fitting.
 
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#7,938
#7,938
BartW said:
Yeah, I'm sure he spoke to somebody besides Putin while he was there :p

Globalism is out and isolationism is in, right? I think the picture is fitting.
Click to expand...

Yeah we should really care much more about every other country but ours. Because we are America and the rest of the world matters much more than us. Signed Obama.
 
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#7,941
#7,941
I believe the planet is getting warmer. It's been getting warmer since the last ice age. Are we contributing? Absolutely. We contribute every time we exhale. So do all mammals. Our factories do it, our cars do it. I don't think we can significantly reduce it right now.

As to the Paris accord, we can lead and gain respect in the world community by giving billions of tax payer dollars or we can lead and gain respect by example which is much more powerful.
 
#7,943
#7,943
VolStrom said:
I don't subscribe to the climate change is caused by humans cause and I also don't dismiss it. I also think we can't change it. There is something on the order of 7+ billion people on this earth, most of which are poor as hell and don't care about CO2 emissions.
Good luck.
Click to expand...

So we should stop trying to change things we can't change and start trying to survive what's coming.

At least that's my opinion
 
#7,945
#7,945
BartW said:
Yeah, I'm sure he spoke to somebody besides Putin while he was there :p

Globalism is out and isolationism is in, right? I think the picture is fitting.
Click to expand...

You still mad at the US (namely Trump) for dropping out of the Treaty?

Put more specifically, are you still mad that individual communities, states and businesses are forging ahead with implementing their own reductions in emissions instead of having a government mandate to do so?

Which one is better? The Federal Government making more laws, regulations and oversight or individuals doing it because they feel it's the right thing to do? Should the federal government also tell them when to go to bed and brush their teeth as well?
 
#7,946
#7,946
MaxamusXIII said:
So we should stop trying to change things we can't change and start trying to survive what's coming.

At least that's my opinion
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Ill start.

Next week I will go sit on a beach. Same beach I have sat on for 40 years. Hasn't gone anywhere yet. I'll keep an eye on it.
 
#7,949
#7,949
InVOLuntary said:
I believe the planet is getting warmer. It's been getting warmer since the last ice age. Are we contributing? Absolutely. We contribute every time we exhale. So do all mammals. Our factories do it, our cars do it. I don't think we can significantly reduce it right now
Click to expand...
No, it hasn’t been getting warmer since the last ice age. We were on a 5000+ year cooling trend until the industrial revolution. Also, I’m not sure you understand the carbon cycle and ramifications of taking organic matter that was accumulated and buried over millions and millions of years and then injecting it into the atmosphere over a span of decades. There is no doubt that the sharp increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to the burning of fossil fuels.

The human fingerprint in atmospheric carbon dioxide

InVOLuntary said:
As to the Paris accord, we can lead and gain respect in the world community by giving billions of tax payer dollars or we can lead and gain respect by example which is much more powerful.
Click to expand...

Or, ya know, we can not lead at all, and pretend the issue is a hoax invented by the Chinese. That'll earn respect :dunno:
 
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