Official what games to pay attention to thread...

#301
#301
bleedingTNorange said:
But their SOS is not even comparable to Drexel

Their rpi is much better

12-6 in big east is very impressive

20+ wins with that SOS is impressive as well

USF has beaten 3 NCAA teams, how many has drexel beaten?
Click to expand...

They've played 2 and beaten 1. I'm aware that the SOS is a significant point in USF's favor, but you need to win games. Villanova has the #4 SOS but they didn't beat anybody.

I understand what you're saying about 12-6 in the big east but their schedule was significantly skewed. Beating Pitt, Nova, St. John's and Providence isn't better than beating Goerge Mason, Old Dominion, Georgia St. and Delaware.

That's strictly based on RPI numbers.
 
#303
#303
My thinking is simply just those teams could
A. Play a much better schedule
B. join a big boy conference

They do either of those and they'd be in.
 
#306
#306
Yeah, Lunardi had Drexel as one of his last 4 in and Texas as the first one out with UT right behind them.
 
#307
#307
bleedingTNorange said:
My thinking is simply just those teams could
A. Play a much better schedule
B. join a big boy conference

They do either of those and they'd be in.
Click to expand...

It's obviously hard to tell when they play such vastly different schedules. Here's one final point:

USF and Drexel have 3 common opponents: VCU, Cleveland State, Old Dominion.

USF lost by 23 at VCU, beat Cleve St at home by 15, lost to ODU by 2 on a neutral court.

Drexel beat VCU at home by 6, lost to them on the road by 3, won at Cleve st by 20, won at ODU by 1, beat ODU by 17 on a neutral court.
 
#309
#309
Cro said:
It's obviously hard to tell when they play such vastly different schedules. Here's one final point:

USF and Drexel have 3 common opponents: VCU, Cleveland State, Old Dominion.

USF lost by 23 at VCU, beat Cleve St at home by 15, lost to ODU by 2 on a neutral court.

Drexel beat VCU at home by 6, lost to them on the road by 3, won at Cleve st by 20, won at ODU by 1, beat ODU by 17 on a neutral court.
Click to expand...

I understand it, there's an argument both ways.

Lunardi now has them in so they must have done something right.
 
#311
#311
zansdad said:
Just saw that number, but the one I saw was closer to 275. Either way, it's probably a resume killer.
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A little info on the VCU win.

VCU got a .0061 bump and jumped from 49 to 39.
Can you do the math on them and see how your figures compare.
 
#314
#314
calban said:
A little info on the VCU win.

VCU got a .0061 bump and jumped from 49 to 39.
Can you do the math on them and see how your figures compare.
Click to expand...

Ok so if they were 53 and beat a 63 in Drexel and jumped ten spots

We are 75 playing say ole miss 50...we'd have to jump atleast 10 right?
 
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#315
#315
We will not know until Sunday. The SOS was noted on ESPN as being the highest to ever make it in the tourney if they did. It was listed as highly unlikely. Espn did state the only other team to make it with that High of a SOS was Nationally ranked 6th. George Washington or George Mason. Lunardi misses on some this maybe one of them.
 
#317
#317
bleedingTNorange said:
Ok so if they were 53 and beat a 63 in Drexel and jumped ten spots

We are 75 playing say ole miss 50...we'd have to jump atleast 10 right?
Click to expand...

I was trying to get Zansdad to do the math on it.
he calculated a .0045 bump which seems kind of low for tourney games.
The average bumps I've seen are .006 to .008.
With a .006 and our current rpi .5585 adding the .006 our first jump would be to .5645.
This of course varies on the rpi board you use.
Go to the board you use and add the .006 to the rpi.
Then see where it lands you with a static jump.
Then you can estimate the total jump by looking at the teams above that will hopefully lose and estimate their drop.
Drexel only dropped .002 but I've seen some that have dropped as much as .008.
Time consuming but will give you an idea.
Rpi forecast is now at 58 with 2 wins. I think that's a little generous but we'll see very soon.
 
#322
#322
calban said:
A little info on the VCU win.

VCU got a .0061 bump and jumped from 49 to 39.
Can you do the math on them and see how your figures compare.
Click to expand...

Based on Cbssports VCU had a RPI of .5784 yesterday Which they had at 50 ( I had to use these numbers because rpiforcast had already updated). A .0061 bump would make them .5845 which is 39. All that is just me repeating what you said ( just trying to be clear). However based on win percentage alone they should have only moved .0018 points (assuming the game was an away game). So for it to have jumped .0061 that would mean their strength of schedule component changed by .0043 which I guess is possible considering Drexel's record was 27-6 and VCU's SOS before the game was 173. In that case I guess a gaudy record and a bad SOS can move the needle. But it means it would have changed VCUs SOS by about .0063, so from .4938 to about .5002. I would have missed this by a bunch. Drexel benifitted from the same thing apparently. Their winning percentage took a huge hit by losing at home but VCU's great record and their own terrible SOS offset the loss and they only fell 5 or so spots.

Side note. This was considered a road game for VCU. All of UT's tourney games will be neutral.
 
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#323
#323
updated for 3/5 games.

if you have any that should be added please post them, and the impact they have on tennessee.

thanks.
 
#324
#324
The expert Shawn Siegel at collegehoops.net has just added Tennessee to the field. He removed Arizona after that garbage loss to AZ St. South Florida was removed.
UConn was added also. Alot of hoops to play.
 
#325
#325
in all honesty i almost think the RPI no longer matters to tennessee.

we know we have to win atleast 1 to get a shot. with 1 win we are inside of 70 and the committee can justify that.

2 wins and we should be a lock, and our rpi should be inside of 60 and the committee can easily justify that.

i really dont think the RPI matters anymore with this team. we are at the point that it's just barely good enough to get in with another win, which we have to have atleast one more win anyways. two more, and their really should be no issue what so ever.
 
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