Official what games to pay attention to thread...

#326
#326
GBO97 said:
OR, Drexel both lost... :banghead2:
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Do you really think two teams from the Summit Conference are going to make it into the tournament? Oral Roberts may have just lost an at large bid with that loss.
 
#328
#328
calban said:
I was trying to get Zansdad to do the math on it.
he calculated a .0045 bump which seems kind of low for tourney games.
The average bumps I've seen are .006 to .008.
With a .006 and our current rpi .5585 adding the .006 our first jump would be to .5645.
This of course varies on the rpi board you use.
Go to the board you use and add the .006 to the rpi.
Then see where it lands you with a static jump.
Then you can estimate the total jump by looking at the teams above that will hopefully lose and estimate their drop.
Drexel only dropped .002 but I've seen some that have dropped as much as .008.
Time consuming but will give you an idea.
Rpi forecast is now at 58 with 2 wins. I think that's a little generous but we'll see very soon.
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Took me some time to work it all out. I posted a reply. I hope it makes sense. I guess I have to change my theory about playing a team with a great record late in the season. If you have a bad SOS yourself, playing a team with a high winning percentage can drastically help you. To bad UT's is about 34.
 
#337
#337
johnnybravo said:
I think we would want UCONN to win since we beat them.
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True, but at this point how much could them winning drastically help us? It is going to be looked at as a "decent" win I feel unless they do something crazy and win the whole Big East tourny again...where as if they choke in their 1st round game they could find themselves off the bubble which could obviously really help...I don't know, just my perspective.
 
#338
#338
cloftonftw5 said:
True, but at this point how much could them winning drastically help us? It is going to be looked at as a "decent" win I feel unless they do something crazy and win the whole Big East tourny again...where as if they choke in their 1st round game they could find themselves off the bubble which could obviously really help...I don't know, just my perspective.
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I agree. I think we want UConn to lose to Depaul because they're on the bubble (and Depaul is bad enough that the loss would seriously hurt UConn).

As far as their other games go after Depaul, I'm less confident on who to root for. I'm thinking UConn would be in at that point, so I guess rooting for them to win the Big East tournament would be best because of RPI.
 
#340
#340
If you're unsure of who to root for go to the first post. I updated it for games today with the impact each game has.

If I missed any please let me know.
 
#341
#341
zansdad said:
I think we talked about this before. The higher your ranking the bigger a change in RPI, on average, needed to make a significant move.
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I guess my next question would be (and all of this is over my head):
Rpiforecast simulates 2-1 in conference and finishing at 58.5.
Can you justify this with the numbers you posted on your math projection?
 
#342
#342
bleedingTNorange said:
I'm going to try and stay on top of this each day and provide games each day that have an impact on Tennessee in some way.

Please if i miss some let me know and i'll update the OP.

March 6, 2012:

Depaul vs Connecticut 12:00pm Impact: UCONN is currently a 10 seed and a loss to a very bad Depaul team could knock UCONN out of the field.

George Washington vs Dayton 7:00pm Impact: Dayton is a RPI 72 and a loss would result in tennessee moving up a spot.

Providence vs Seton Hall 7:00pm Impact: Seton Hall is one of the Last Four In, and a loss would knock them out and put Tennessee one step closer.

Portland State vs Weber State 7:30pm Impact: Weber State is a RPI 71 and a loss would move tennessee up a spot.

as i said, im sure i will miss some games, PLEASE add any games that will have an impact and i will update the OP each day.
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I think we want UConn, IMO. Especially Since a loss would knock them out. It gives us another win over a tournament team.
 
#343
#343
golfballs03 said:
I think we want UConn, IMO. Especially Since a loss would knock them out. It gives us another win over a tournament team.
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No.

At this point 2 wins we are in regardless of anything else that goes on. Our biggest issue right now is people like Uconn who are on the edge, we need them out.
 
#344
#344
calban said:
I guess my next question would be (and all of this is over my head):
Rpiforecast simulates 2-1 in conference and finishing at 58.5.
Can you justify this with the numbers you posted on your math projection?
Click to expand...

No, and I can't even get close. Look at his projection for going 1-1 in the tourney and for going 2-1. It's a 20 spot difference. That just doesn't seem logical. I just can't see winning one neutral site game bumps them up 20 spots.
 
#345
#345
I won't be able to watch much, if any, basketball today (a friend of mine lost his battle with bone cancer Sunday night and I have a lot of schoolwork to do), but here's a rooting guide aside from those named by the OP:

Pittsburgh vs. St. John's, 2:00 PM, ESPN2 - Fairly inconsequential because neither team is getting in, but we want all of our previous opponents to win and help our RPI.

Penn at Princeton, 7:00 PM, ESPN3 - Princeton, because Penn winning puts them in a tiebreaker game with Harvard this Saturday. If they were to win that Harvard has a good shot at an at-large bid, shortening the bubble by 1.
 
#346
#346
bleedingTNorange said:
No.

At this point 2 wins we are in regardless of anything else that goes on. Our biggest issue right now is people like Uconn who are on the edge, we need them out.
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I think UCONN will be in regardless. Their NC will be enough to give them the nod, even if they lose today. So, might as well root them to win as many as possible.

The new Brackology on ESPN just came out. VCU bumped us back one.
 
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#347
#347
UConn coasting into the tournament after not giving a crap about winning since mid-January would really annoy me. That's basically saying as long as you have name power you can quit playing halfway through the season.
 
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#348
#348
govols120 said:
I won't be able to watch much, if any, basketball today (a friend of mine lost his battle with bone cancer Sunday night and I have a lot of schoolwork to do), but here's a rooting guide aside from those named by the OP:

Pittsburgh vs. St. John's, 2:00 PM, ESPN2 - Fairly inconsequential because neither team is getting in, but we want all of our previous opponents to win and help our RPI.

Penn at Princeton, 7:00 PM, ESPN3 - Princeton, because Penn winning puts them in a tiebreaker game with Harvard this Saturday. If they were to win that Harvard has a good shot at an at-large bid, shortening the bubble by 1.
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Sorry to hear that, prayers go out to you.

Thanks for those added games as well, I will add them. As I said in order for this thread to be most accurate I need everyone help.

Thanks.
 
#349
#349
zansdad said:
No, and I can't even get close. Look at his projection for going 1-1 in the tourney and for going 2-1. It's a 20 spot difference. That just doesn't seem logical. I just can't see winning one neutral site game bumps them up 20 spots.
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I didn't think it made sense either.
Hope they're right though.
 
#350
#350
calban said:
I didn't think it made sense either.
Hope they're right though.
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As far as UT goes, yes. But as far as the RPI goes, not so much. I think I have a pretty good handle on the math. If UT goes 2-1 and jumps to 58, I will have to start over from scratch. 1 gazinta 1 once, 1 gazinta 2 twice, 1 gazinta 3 three times...


Edit: rpiforcast.com updated just a bit ago. Now showing 70 for going 1-1 and 48 for going 2-1. I thought it would change, just didn't think it would actually go higher. Now I truely am confused.
 
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