Official what games to pay attention to thread...

#551
#551
We have been sitting at about the same position for days in the Four Out positon. Why?
Because we have not played. The only changes is because others have fallen or moved. Today we are going to start to see moves but we don't break the door of the NCAA until we win on Friday. Holding it and upgrading seeding depends on 2nd Game and others. All this ball watching is crazy right now until we have the opportunity to take care of buisness.

Right now we are in position to move into the field but don't see the first movement into it until we win Friday. We will leap frog several teams with that win. We are on the radar and where we deserve to be. We are not desperate as others we just have to take care of buisness.
 
#552
#552
golfballs03 said:
Two best games of the day should be Northwestern/Minnesota and Texas/Iowa St

They're basically a coin flip.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. I think Tubby & Co will get Northwestern and I can see Iowa State running away with that game late. Texas just don't have it together.
 
#553
#553
ThatVolGuy said:
Now, I'm obviously not speaking from an unbiased perspective, but I feel like many people who don't follow Missouri closely think they'll be an easy out because of their four-guard lineup. I'm not saying they won't be vulnerable in some ways because of this, but I do feel like they're being underrated by some. If their guards are working together and shooting well (which is the vast majority of the time), their makeup is going to give a lot of teams fits. Shoot, they were housing Kansas by 20 points in Lawrence before two key players got into foul trouble - they're legit.

Although Kansas State (of all teams) seems to have their number this year, Mizzou is a very dangerous team that would almost certainly get a 1 seed with a B12 tournament victory.
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I picked Mizzou to go to the final four. That team is flat out dangerous. Depending on Baylors matchups, I could see them going a long, long ways as well.
 
#558
#558
golfballs03 said:
Here are a few picks of mine for today:

Syracuse - 71
UConn - 64

NC State - 73
Boston College - 59

Colorado St - 73
TCU - 68

Northwestern - 66
Minnesota - 65

Miami - 68
GT - 61

Iowa St - 70
Texas - 69

Miss St - 66
Georgia - 60
Click to expand...

The rest of my predictions:
S Miss - 70
ECU - 64

ND - 59
S Florida - 56

Washington - 76
Oregon St - 73

UCLA - 67
Arizona - 65

Oregon - 70
Colorado - 68

Ole Miss - 64
Auburn - 60
 
#560
#560
Here are the odds of each team reaching the benchmark set by Lunardi to be safe entering selection Sunday:

Cal (avoid bad loss)......................100%
West Va (avoid bad loss)...............100%
Uconn (avoid badd loss).................100%
Saint Louis (avoid bad loss)............74.27%
S Miss (avoid bad loss)..................72.90%
Miss St (1 win).............................61.39%
S Florida (beat ND)........................35.30%
Miami (2 wins)..............................35%
Arizona (make the finals)................34.96%
NC State (2 wins).........................34%
Washington (1 good win)................33.55%
Colorado St (2 wins)......................32.68%
Oregon (2 wins)............................27.19%
Tennessee (2 wins).......................26.39%
Xavier (2 wins).............................21.13%
Northwestern (2 wins)...................18.69%
St Joes (make the finals)...............15.96%
Texas (2 wins).............................15.71%
Dayton (make finals).....................12.07%
Seton Hall (2 wins)........................0.00%

This isn't necessarily a reflection of who will get in or not. But just for ****s and giggles, if we apply this to his s-curve, Tennessee would be the last one in. In reality, anyone below Miss State is going to be at the mercy of the bubble.
 
#561
#561
again, it's not a good reflection of who will get in, because if Arizona and Washington match up, the loser could very well be outside of the bubble.
 
#562
#562
It's far from over if we lose to Vandy/MSU on Saturday. Way too much up in the air
 
#565
#565
golfballs03 said:
Here are the odds of each team reaching the benchmark set by Lunardi to be safe entering selection Sunday:

Cal (avoid bad loss)......................100%
West Va (avoid bad loss)...............100%
Uconn (avoid badd loss).................100%
Saint Louis (avoid bad loss)............74.27%
S Miss (avoid bad loss)..................72.90%
Miss St (1 win).............................61.39%
S Florida (beat ND)........................35.30%
Miami (2 wins)..............................35%
Arizona (make the finals)................34.96%
NC State (2 wins).........................34%
Washington (1 good win)................33.55%
Colorado St (2 wins)......................32.68%
Oregon (2 wins)............................27.19%
Tennessee (2 wins).......................26.39%
Xavier (2 wins).............................21.13%
Northwestern (2 wins)...................18.69%
St Joes (make the finals)...............15.96%
Texas (2 wins).............................15.71%
Dayton (make finals).....................12.07%
Seton Hall (2 wins)........................0.00%

This isn't necessarily a reflection of who will get in or not. But just for ****s and giggles, if we apply this to his s-curve, Tennessee would be the last one in. In reality, anyone below Miss State is going to be at the mercy of the bubble.
Click to expand...

This is a true picture of the moment. Win 2 and we are in. One may make it for us. Depends on the others results. I can see this changing quickly with these 19 teams. Especially at the S. FL line and below. I have no idea when he did this but why even list Seton Hall. Did you make the adjustment?
 
#566
#566
USM's collapse has been super ugly.

Also, 2 seeds in recent history with a Mizzou-esque SOS (80 or lower) have performed terribly in the tournament. Typically a second-round exit.
 
#567
#567
Sudden Impact said:
This is a true picture of the moment. Win 2 and we are in. One may make it for us. Depends on the others results. I can see this changing quickly with these 19 teams. Especially at the S. FL line and below. I have no idea when he did this but why even list Seton Hall. Did you make the adjustment?
Click to expand...

Lunardi set the benchmarks I listed to the left of each team.

I added the calculated odds of reaching that benchmark (becoming a lock) to the right.

Seton Hall didn't reach their benchmark and they're done playing. That means they have a 0% chance of becoming a lock.
 
#568
#568
Cal, West Virginia, and UConn met the benchmarks, so therefore, they should be locks according to Lunardi
 
#569
#569
Essentially, it's unlikely that any of the teams below Miss State will be locks to get in the tournament come Sunday.
 
#570
#570
golfballs03 said:
Lunardi set the benchmarks I listed to the left of each team.

I added the calculated odds of reaching that benchmark (becoming a lock) to the right.

Seton Hall didn't reach their benchmark and they're done playing. That means they have a 0% chance of becoming a lock.
Click to expand...

Understood. Its good info and you prefaced it well for craps and grins which is understandable....got it.
 
#572
#572
I think come selection Sunday, there will be about 10 teams with viable shots for about 5 spots.
 
#575
#575
govols120 said:
USM's collapse has been super ugly.

Also, 2 seeds in recent history with a Mizzou-esque SOS (80 or lower) have performed terribly in the tournament. Typically a second-round exit.
Click to expand...

I'd love to see the names of some of these 2 seeds. I'm not baiting you or anything - I'm honestly very curious.
 
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