Official what games to pay attention to thread...

#1,476
#1,476
bleedingTNorange said:
IF XAVIER WINS...IMO it comes down to this....

The last four in will be out of this group IMO:

USF
MARSHALL
TENNESSEE
NC STATE
SETON HALL
DREXEL


I'm gonna say the last four in are:

USF
MARSHALL
NC STATE
SETON HALL

My homer pick is:

NC STATE
SETON HALL
USF
TENNESSEE

I think it really comes down to Marshall, Tennessee, USF and Drexel for that last spot.
Click to expand...

I don't think Marshall will end up in play. I may be putting too much stock in Iona, however.
 
#1,477
#1,477
TennesseeFan07 said:
I tried to quickly type out how I think this will go. I'm sure a lot of glaring errors exist, but I'm going to try to get a decent bracket projection up by tomorrow afternoon.

SOUTH

1)North Carolina
16) Lamar

8) Notre Dame
9) Iowa State

4) Indiana
13) North Carolina State/Seton Hall

5) Murray State
12) Long Beach State

3)Georgetown
14) Davidson

6) Wichita State
11)Xavier

7) Cincinnati
10) Texas

2)Missouri
15) Long Island


 
EAST

1) Syracuse
16) Stony Brook/Norfolk State

8) Purdue
9) UConn

4) Florida State
13) Ohio

5) Vanderbilt
12) VCU

3)Michigan
14) Belmont

6) UNLV
11)West Virginia

7) Memphis
10) Harvard

2)Ohio State
15) Lehigh


 
MIDWEST

1)Kentucky
16) WKU/Mississippi Valley

8) Gonzaga
9) Saint Louis

4) Wisconsin
13) South Dakota State

5) Temple
12) South Florida

3)Marquette
14) Loyola (MD)

6) New Mexico
11) BYU

7) Kansas State
10) Southern Miss

2)Duke
15) UNC-Asheville 


WEST

1)Kansas
16) UNC-Asheville

8) San Diego State
9) Alabama

4) Louisville
13) New Mexico State

5) Florida
12) Colorado

3) Baylor
14) Montana

6) Creighton
11) Colorado State/Miami

7) Saint Mary’s (CA)
10) Virginia

2)Michigan State
15) Detroit


Last Four In: Colorado State, North Carolina State, Miami and Seton Hall
First Four Out: Drexel. Mississippi State, Iona and Tennessee
Next Four Out: Washington, Marshall, Mississippi and Northwestern

Edit: I haven't checked for conflicting matchups yet. This is just a guideline to go by.
Click to expand...
u think miami is in?
 
#1,480
#1,480
MSUDuo said:
Makes sense. I guess you can know the 37 teams in some capacity with several different scenarios playing out...

FWIW, if this bubble team is left out I'm going to be mad...

22 wins
Top50 RPI
BPI is around other bubble teams
4-6 v top50
6-8 v top100

It's stupid that the names on the jerseys keep a lot of teams in the discussion. If a BCS team had this resume, they'd be a lock and comparable BCS teams are (Purdue)

You can't tell me other bubble teams match it, especially USF, Miss State, Drexel, NW
Click to expand...

Who is it?
What's their SOS?
Their OOC SOS?
 
#1,482
#1,482
I do think Miami will get in. I'm sure some will argue that Mississippi should get the nod since they defeated the Canes head-to head. However, Miami doesn't have any terrible losses and they have defeated the teams they were supposed to. The deciding factor is the win over Duke. Most of the bubble teams don't have marquee wins, but Miami does. The biggest weakness for Miami is a lack of any big OOC wins.
 
#1,483
#1,483
Here's Miami's problem:
Vs top 25: 2-5
Vs top 26- 50: 0-4
Vs top 51-100: 1-2

Total vs top 100: 3-11

They racked up wins against lesser teams. The problem this year is you have about 8 teams competing for final four spots, and all eight have MAJOR flaws somewhere in their resume.
 
#1,485
#1,485
bleedingTNorange said:
Here's Miami's problem:
Vs top 25: 2-5
Vs top 26- 50: 0-4
Vs top 51-100: 1-2

Total vs top 100: 3-11

They racked up wins against lesser teams. The problem this year is you have about 8 teams competing for final four spots, and all eight have MAJOR flaws somewhere in their resume.
Click to expand...

That's true, but they have taken care of business against the lesser teams. The good for them is that a lot of the losses they suffered were close defeats. I guess a close defeat against good teams has to count for something, right?
 
#1,486
#1,486
Originally Posted by MSUDuo:
Makes sense. I guess you can know the 37 teams in some capacity with several different scenarios playing out...

FWIW, if this bubble team is left out I'm going to be mad...

22 wins
Top50 RPI
BPI is around other bubble teams
4-6 v top50
6-8 v top100

It's stupid that the names on the jerseys keep a lot of teams in the discussion. If a BCS team had this resume, they'd be a lock and comparable BCS teams are (Purdue)

You can't tell me other bubble teams match it, especially USF, Miss State, Drexel, NW

Ummm

Marshall has 20 not 22 wins
6-9 vs top 100
Kenpom is 69
BPI 55


They deserve a look, and I have them in, but to say they should be a lock is a stretch.
 
#1,487
#1,487
TennesseeFan07 said:
That's true, but they have taken care of business against the lesser teams. The good for them is that a lot of the losses they suffered were close defeats. I guess a close defeat against good teams has to count for something, right?
Click to expand...

This is why a teams name is keeping them in the discussion.

If a mid major goes 2-9 against the top100, there is no way they are talked about for an at-large. But because it's Miami and they play in the ACC and have played teams close, they should be in? Tell me that isn't wrong...
 
#1,488
#1,488
TennesseeFan07 said:
That's true, but they have taken care of business against the lesser teams. The good for them is that a lot of the losses they suffered were close defeats. I guess a close defeat against good teams has to count for something, right?
Click to expand...

Ive always heard no, but who knows.

Honestly I see NC STATE and SETON HALL getting 2 of the last 4.

The last 2 is anybody's guess:
Tennessee
Marshall
Miami
Drexel
Iona
USF
Northwestern
 
#1,489
#1,489
MSUDuo said:
Marshall
SOS is 24 but SOS don't mean crap unless you actually win and beat someone which they have done.

Not sure of non-con SOS, the site I use doesn't list it...
Click to expand...

Admittedly, I've probably Marshall play less than any other team on that list other than Drexel. That's just my own personal bias. However, they don't have that one marquee win like Miami does that could put them in. That's just how I feel about it. The bad thing for them is that they basically lost to all of the top four teams in Conference USA, including blowouts to Memphis both times.
 
#1,490
#1,490
MSUDuo said:
This is why a teams name is keeping them in the discussion.

If a mid major goes 2-9 against the top100, there is no way they are talked about for an at-large. But because it's Miami and they play in the ACC and have played teams close, they should be in? Tell me that isn't wrong...
Click to expand...

I'm not disagreeing at all. The negative for Marshall is that they haven't had as many opportunities to prove how good they are because of a lesser schedule. Also, Miami has had a lot of ESPN games this season. How many has Marshall had? I'm not saying it's right, but that's part of it.
 
#1,492
#1,492
bleedingTNorange said:
Ive always heard no, but who knows.

Honestly I see NC STATE and SETON HALL getting 2 of the last 4.

The last 2 is anybody's guess:
Tennessee
Marshall
Miami
Drexel
Iona
USF
Northwestern
Click to expand...

I think it's safe to say that Northwestern won't be making it. I know the committee says it starts fresh each year, but I wonder how much the Big East's choke job from last season will factor into the Seton Hall and South Florida decisions?
 
#1,499
#1,499
TennesseeFan07 said:
If the committee looks at the final month or two of the season, Seton Hall will be in trouble. If they don't, Seton Hall will be right on the edge.
Click to expand...

8-10 since January...

See that's what I'm talking about a these final teams have flaws.

The question becomes what will the committee weigh?


Tennessee last 2 months dwarf seton hall, but then again aspects of seton halls resume dwarf tennessees.
 
#1,500
#1,500
bleedingTNorange said:
Still has northwestern in?!?!
Click to expand...

I can't make a case for Northwestern at all. That said, compare resumes of both Seton Hall and Northwestern. Both teams started out strong, picked up some quality wins, but have somehow managed to choke bad enough to even be in consideration for missing. It's a little hypocritical of me to diminish Northwestern for having a losing conference record and still somehow find a way to include Seton Hall into the field.
 
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