Our chances at Oregon.....

#1
BigOrangeBob

BigOrangeBob

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#1
are better than most think. Admittedly, I always drink the kool-aid, and wear orange tinted glasses. I have been thinking about this game for a while, trying to think of a reason we can hang with this team. I decided to do a little checking/research, and this is what I found interesting, and hopeful.

Over the past four recruiting years, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, Tennessee and Oregon are exactly even, both averaging finishing at number 15. We keep hearing of the differences in talent, but they have lost quite a bit also. Our defense was not as bad as it appeared on the field(Sunseri), and our team is not void of talent(but it is void of Dooley, thankfully). Oregon is also void of Chip Kelly, and their head coach is completely unproven, and could be their Dooley.

Given the closer overall talent, and I believe a coaching advantage for UT, I believe it will be a MUCH closer game than people think. With a fortunate defensive score, or couple of turnovers, who knows. If UT can score 1st, and get momentum, Oregon may not respond as well as they hope. You never know with kids, new coaching staff, etc.....

Here's to hope! (flame away.......):crossfingers:
 
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#2
#2
I think Oregon beats us worse than Bama. JMO. Its early in the season and we will be a bit shaky.
 
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#4
#4
I think with the fast pace that both offences will run, that it may end up being who is in the best shape physically. I hope all that we have heard is true about the rigors of the S&C program this summer.
 
#5
#5
Way too much expect us to compete offensively this early in the season. New QB and a stable of new receivers will make it extremely difficult to match pts with Oregon. Unless we win the TO battle with a few TDs, I suspect this will be a loss, but great experience playing in a hostile environment before SEC play.
 
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#7
#7
Realistically, it wouldn't surprise me if the coaches aren't devoting much time to gameplanning for Oregon. This game was scheduled back when we did all our Pac-10 home/aways which started in 2007. Back then, Oregon wasn't the Oregon of now and we weren't the UT of now.

We're just simply not in a position to compete at that level nationally and then turn around and play in Florida against another Top 10 team.

Coaches only have so much time to prepare and install our Off/Def and Oregon is such a departure in terms of Offense/Defense... Florida just makes more sense to gameplan against given they run a much more similar offense to just about every other team on our schedule.

So, long story short, I'm not expecting much. I'm not saying I don't think our team will compete. I think it will. I'm just saying the coaches, at least from a strategic point of view, in my mind will focus on more realistic and important games than @Oregon for the 2nd game of Jones' tenure.

And I'm also not saying Florida is an easier game... it's just a much more logical team to prepare for in terms of impact on recruiting, standing in the SEC and also how far it will carry fan opinion.

I'd far rather beat Florida than Oregon.
 
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#10
#10
Anything can happen.

But they have a lot of speed, a talented offense, and we'll be at their house on the other side of the country.

Interesting point about recruiting though. Last year, Tennessee and Notre Dame, for instance, had the same 4 year rolling recruiting rankings, and both lost to Bama by 31. So I do think 4 year recruiting rankings can be a good measure of comparable teams.
 
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#11
#11
DC Vol said:
Realistically, it wouldn't surprise me if the coaches aren't devoting much time to gameplanning for Oregon. This game was scheduled back when we did all our Pac-10 home/aways which started in 2007. Back then, Oregon wasn't the Oregon of now and we weren't the UT of now.

We're just simply not in a position to compete at that level nationally and then turn around and play in Florida against another Top 10 team.

Coaches only have so much time to prepare and install our Off/Def and Oregon is such a departure in terms of Offense/Defense... Florida just makes more sense to gameplan against given they run a much more similar offense to just about every other team on our schedule.

So, long story short, I'm not expecting much. I'm not saying I don't think our team will compete. I think it will. I'm just saying the coaches, at least from a strategic point of view, in my mind will focus on more realistic and important games than @Oregon for the 2nd game of Jones' tenure.

And I'm also not saying Florida is an easier game... it's just a much more logical team to prepare for in terms of impact on recruiting, standing in the SEC and also how far it will carry fan opinion.

I'd far rather beat Florida than Oregon.
Click to expand...

You play to win every game. If we went into to the game with this mindset, then we might as well forfeit. For the sake of Tennessee football, I hope the coaches aren't using this logic.
 
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#12
#12
OREGON - OFFENSE

QB – Marcus Mariota (So.) 3
RB – De'Anthony Thomas (Jr.) 5
WR – Josh Huff (Sr.) 4
WR – Keanon Lowe (Jr.) 4
SLOT – Bralon Addison (So.) 4
TE – Colt Lyerla (Jr.), 5
LT – Tyler Johnstone (So.) 4
LG – Mana Greig (Sr.) 2 (no rating, so plugged "2")
C – Hroniss Grasu (Jr.) 3
RG – Hamani Stevens (Jr.) 4
RT – Jake Fisher (Jr.) 3

Average ranking - team 3.73

TENNESSEE - OFFENSE

Justin Worley 3
Raijion Neal 4
Jason Croom 4
Vincent Dallas 3
Pig Howard 4
Woody Quinn 2
LT - Tiny Richardson 4
LG - Alex Bullard 4
C - James Stone 4
RG - Zach Fulton 3
RT - Juwuan James 4

Average ranking - team 3.55

OREGON - DEFENSE

DE – Taylor Hart (Sr.) 3
NT – Wade Keliikipi (Sr.) 2
DT – Ricky Havili-Heimuli (Sr.) 4
DROP – Tony Washington (Jr.) 3
SAM – Bo Lokombo (Sr.) 3
MIKE – Tyson Coleman (So.) 3
WILL – Derrick Malone (Jr.) 3
CB – Terrance Mitchell (Jr.) 3
CB – Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Jr.) 4
S – Erick Dargan (Jr.) 4
S – Brian Jackson (Sr.) 3

Average ranking - team 3.18

TENNESSEE - DEFENSE

Marlon Walls 4
Dan McCullers 4
Maurice Couch 4
Jacques Smith 4
Curt Maggitt 4
A.J. Johnson 4
Dontaviss Sapp 2
Rhiyad Jones 3
Justin Coleman 4
Brian Randolph 3
Byron Moore 4

Average ranking - team 3.64


OVERALL

Oregon Average - 3.45

Tennessee Average - 3.59
Click to expand...

I posted this in a different thread, thought I'd post here. I wanted to see average by starter. I took a two-deep depth chart posted in the FF by an Oregon fan for Oregon and looked up the (expected) starter's average ratings on Rivals out of highschool. I also looked at the same information for Tennessee (based on my very rough guess of our first team at this point - WR was the hardest, I think).

Maybe there's something to be said for being evenly matched based on talent. Our defense is clearly more talented than theirs. I also started doing the 2-deep, but didn't finish - based on where I got with that, I think the results would be similar (i.e., equivalent rankings between us and Oregon). I figured our attrition would really hurt us, but maybe it hasn't.

Thought this was interesting and didn't take long (although I wonder if someone else already has done this on VN and I've just not seen it).

I think we hang with them a while and give them a much better game than many expect. In the end, though, I think they wear us down and pull away. They are in the preseason top 5 for a reason.
 
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#13
#13
It is such a shame that we had the "Dooley era/error). They say "you are what your record says you are", but I honestly think we have more talent than our record has shown. I also honestly believe Dooley will go down in history as one of the worst coaches to ever coach at this level. Who knows about Oregon's new coach? The football takes funny bounces quite often, we are OVERDUE for a bounce to go our way. I am in NO WAY predicting a win, but I am expecting it to be a closely contested game.
 
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#14
#14
I would like to think we can stay with them but don't see it happening.. looking at the schedule we could lose to ducks gators and dogs and that is going to make for a long season.. and a thousand threads on once we get by SC we will be OK..

Cbj has to make a statement of some sort in a win or loss against the big boys to prove that he can play with them even with less talent if we have to wait till back side of schedule it will get ugly with the fans.. IMO. They r just lurking n waiting...lol
 
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#15
#15
AllVolForLife_16 said:
You play to win every game. If we went into to the game with this mindset, then we might as well forfeit. For the sake of Tennessee football, I hope the coaches aren't using this logic.
Click to expand...

If you could either gameplan equally for both Oregon/Florida and lose both or gameplan for only Florida and have a much better chance to win..



What would you do? And drop the naive idealism. UT isn't in the position to realistically expect to compete and win every game. 10 years ago? Sure. Now? No.
 
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#16
#16
All I know is that our offense better make some progess before we go out to oregon. We know they will score some points and we know the acoustics of their stadium make it loud.
 
#17
#17
I'm not expecting us to win, but according to your logic, we shouldn't prepare and gameplan as hard as we should for Florida. I'm sorry, but that is stupid.

The main reason why the Florida game ranks higher in terms of importance is because a win over them puts us in position to win the East, but according to you, we're years away from that. So what makes you think we're going to beat Florida? I believe we stack up better against Florida yes, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't go all out on preparations for the Oregon game.

If we somehow, some way pulled out a win in Eugene on a national stage, the media attention would be ridiculous and it would only better our recruiting. This is still a huge game, regardless if it's an OOC game. In the end, I'm not expecting a win, but if we're in a position to win the game then you never know what can happen.
 
#21
#21
With our offensive line, I do believe we should shorten the game, keep pounding the rock. Oregon has been hurt by the run in the past, most teams get behind early, and start airing it out, trying to keep up. I know our new philosophy is to speed up, but I trust this coaching staff, they will have a plan. I also believe Chip Kelly was the one calling the plays, and may turn out to be one of the better coaches of this decade. Who knows how Oregon would respond to adversity, with a new staff. Things could go our way, like I said earlier, we are LONG overdue for a bounce or two to go our way. What would be considered a "win"? 7 point loss, 10 point loss, close game?

Who knows? The only "win" I consider is a W in the win column. It is time to quit expecting failure, upsets happen every week....Why not us?
 
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#22
#22
BigOrangeBob said:
are better than most think. Admittedly, I always drink the kool-aid, and wear orange tinted glasses. I have been thinking about this game for a while, trying to think of a reason we can hang with this team. I decided to do a little checking/research, and this is what I found interesting, and hopeful.

Over the past four recruiting years, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, Tennessee and Oregon are exactly even, both averaging finishing at number 15. We keep hearing of the differences in talent, but they have lost quite a bit also. Our defense was not as bad as it appeared on the field(Sunseri), and our team is not void of talent(but it is void of Dooley, thankfully). Oregon is also void of Chip Kelly, and their head coach is completely unproven, and could be their Dooley.

Given the closer overall talent, and I believe a coaching advantage for UT, I believe it will be a MUCH closer game than people think. With a fortunate defensive score, or couple of turnovers, who knows. If UT can score 1st, and get momentum, Oregon may not respond as well as they hope. You never know with kids, new coaching staff, etc.....

Here's to hope! (flame away.......):crossfingers:
Click to expand...

The biggest advantage is what Oregon returns on offense and their offense isnt changing. I do think going back to the 4-3 will help and we have more depth than the last meeting and it definitely should be more competitive. But going out there against that offense and their speed will not be an easy task.
 
#25
#25
Just noticed I have picked up my 6th star!!!!! Too bad I don't any eligibility left.:rolleyes:

(Just noticed my post total, need to get out more often):hmm:
 
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