Overachieved

[GVol1966]

It’s 100% a hypothetical. Someone doesn’t understand statics or the term hypothetical.

If you have 3 60/40 games that you’re favored in, the odds are that you’ll lose one. If you failed stats, I can do the exact math for you. But no, the odds of 3 60/40 propositions all coming through is low (around 21%). That’s why parlays pay off so well if you hit one

So no, the expectation for a team slightly favored in 3 games (60/40 propositions) would not be that they win all three. It would be that they go 2-1.

This is the part you guys don’t understand when you claim 10-2 should be expected

You don’t understand football.
You play 1 game at a time.
You’re expected to win or you’re not.
If you win the game you’re not expected to win and all the games you’re expected to win then you overachieved.

Odds, Vegas and all the other bs You posted doesn’t change that.

 

[Vol8188]

You don’t understand football.
You play 1 game at a time.
You’re expected to win or you’re not.
If you win the game you’re not expected to win and all the games you’re expected to win then you overachieved.

Odds, Vegas and all the other bs You posted doesn’t change that.

I know the game very well.

If you picked 5 teams that are all favored by 1 point on a parlay, would you expect all 5 to win? If so, you don’t understand basic probability.

 

[GVol1966]

I know the game very well.

If you picked 5 teams that are all favored by 1 point on a parlay, would you expect all 5 to win? If so, you don’t understand basic probability.

I’m done.
You started the thread:
Overachieved

Talking about the UT Vols season.
Stop with the bs about 5 teams, odds , and bs.
It has nothing to do with whether or not UT Vols overachieved.
Did they win more games than they should based on quality of opponents and roster talent? No

 

[Vol8188]

I’m done.
You started the thread:
Overachieved

Talking about the UT Vols season.
Stop with the bs about 5 teams, odds , and bs.
It has nothing to do with whether or not UT Vols overachieved.
Did they win more games than they should based on quality of opponents and roster talent? No

Odds have everything to do with over/under achieving. If I told you there was an 80% chance we finish with 9 wins or less, then we would all agree we overachieved.

You’re only dismissing odds because you don’t understand them.

And yes, we did. Florida, Bama, Georgia, and Oklahoma are all considered to have superior rosters.

But even so, to pretend roster talent is the only variable is 100% ignorant. Playing on the road matters. And how much better your roster is matters.

If I play 5 teams and I only have a slight roster advantage over all 5, odds are I’m going to drop at least one of those games.

 

[GVol1966]

Odds have everything to do with over/under achieving. If I told you there was an 80% chance we finish with 9 wins or less, then we would all agree we overachieved.

You’re only dismissing odds because you don’t understand them.

And yes, we did. Florida, Bama, Georgia, and Oklahoma are all considered to have superior rosters.

But even so, to pretend roster talent is the only variable is 100% ignorant. Playing on the road matters. And how much better your roster is matters.

If I play 5 teams and I only have a slight roster advantage over all 5, odds are I’m going to drop at least one of those games.

I guess you’re just ignorant;
7-5
6-6 lost
6-6
6-6
4-8 lol you called them a good team
2-10
That’s the records of the SEC team’s we beat not named Bama.
And no need to mention the non conference teams, they were trash.
So in which games did we overachieve by beating them??
None.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Good post. I've been wondering if anyone was going to reference that. Of the people in this thread claiming we didn't overachieve, I think only one or two of them were on record predicting 10+ wins.

When Vegas plus the majority of media outlets, pundits, and fan base polls predict you to win 8-9 games; then it's reasonable to say you've overachieved at 10-2.

As you laid-out, Heupel has done an outstanding job, but I've got a few concerns. I'm not calling for anyone's job on our staff, or claiming they should be on the hot seat, but next year is show time for Pope and Elarbee IMHO. Show time in that I want to see significant contributions from players we recruited out of HS. They've done great with developing a few inherited players and portal pickups, but the portal alone isn't sustainable. I would have loved if those were my biggest concerns 4-5 years ago, lol.

I agree on all counts, but would add that Pope has developed talent they just don't play much yet. Matthews is starting to shine in his very limited playing time...Squirrel should have gotten a medical redhsirt this season with his torn labrum and let the 2 talented guys behind him in Nimrod and Staley play. It has hurt the team...and I LOVE SQUIRREL so it pains me to say that to such a tough and formerly clutch guy. Staley may eventually get more PT than Nimrod at the slot. The kid is good. We have more badazz freshman WR enrolling soon. Like 20 out of this class are EE kids that will be here this winter. Thats the new norm.

Next year will tell alot abouy Ellarbee...we have landed about 8 offensive linemen that are 4* or above in 2023 and 2024. These guys need to play eventually. Satterfield is next years center...but what about Gage Gunther, Warren , etc ? We will definitely add a couple portal Olinemen again. Every year. This is the new norm. Our recruits have to start panning out though or guys like Sanders wont come here anymore.

Banks...Garner..and Coach Chop ALL need raises to make sure we keep them. Coach Inge and the much maligned Martinez have done really well too. Inge is under a new contract, but Martinez is due a new contract after this season IMO. Pay the man. Defense travels. Defense wins championships

 

[OHvol40]

I guess you’re just ignorant;
7-5
6-6 lost
6-6
6-6
4-8 lol you called them a good team
2-10
That’s the records of the SEC team’s we beat not named Bama.
And no need to mention the non conference teams, they were trash.
So in which games did we overachieve by beating them??
None.

He’s not talking about one individual game or group of games, he’s talking about the outcome of the entirety of the season up to this point. The likelihood that any team will lose to an underdog, especially with a ton of variables like injuries, playing on the road (especially at night), coaching, travel, etc. is very high over a 12 game stretch. Our projected win total O/U was 8.5. We overachieved based on that metric, recruiting/roster talent metrics, or basically any other measurable you want to use. Period.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

It's no question that Vols have overachieved.

Most of us were content and in an overwhelming majority going into this year as 9-3. Sure, we had no idea the defense was going to make the leap it did. Sure, we had no idea Dylan was going to be the record breaking force we saw. Sure, the rest of the offense fell below expectations. I think most of us assumed Nico and the veteran receiving core would carry us.

Reality surpassed our perceived picture of 24, for the most part. Most of us picked a UGA loss. Most of us picked an Arky win.

We were about 60/40 in favor of OU. Bama was 40/60 in their favor.

This thing surpassed most pre-season calls. What counts? 10 and effing 2 with a possible CFP host game.

NegaVols need to sit and spin on this

 

[GVol1966]

He’s not talking about one individual game or group of games, he’s talking about the outcome of the entirety of the season up to this point. The likelihood that any team will lose to an underdog, especially with a ton of variables like injuries, playing on the road (especially at night), coaching, travel, etc. is very high over a 12 game stretch. Our projected win total O/U was 8.5. We overachieved based on that metric, recruiting/roster talent metrics, or basically any other measurable you want to use. Period.

Him and you must work for CNN.
You can spin any story how you want,
Use your underestimated projections that were way off as your metric and say we overachieved sure.

I’ll take the facts as they are , not what someone thought we should do in August and the facts are we played 12 games and 11 we’re absolutely winnable and we won 10.
I’ll except that you’re probably gonna lose one of the 11 along the way and take the 10 wins and be happy with what we did.
It’s not overachieving, it’s doing what you should of done.

 

[OHvol40]

Him and you must work for CNN.
You can spin any story how you want,
Use your underestimated projections that were way off as your metric and say we overachieved sure.

I’ll take the facts as they are , not what someone thought we should do in August and the facts are we played 12 games and 11 we’re absolutely winnable and we won 10.
I’ll except that you’re probably gonna lose one of the 11 along the way and take the 10 wins and be happy with what we did.
It’s not overachieving, it’s doing what you should have done.

There is no spin, you just choose to ignore what’s in front of your face in favor of some phantom narrative that allows you to be miserable.

 

[Mccage]

Negs winning this thread 103 to 82

 

[GVol1966]

There is no spin, you just choose to ignore what’s in front of your face in favor of some phantom narrative that allows you to be miserable.

You’re confused.
What’s in front of my face is 4 out of conference cream puffs, 6 SEC teams with only one better than 6-6 and that’s 7-5 Florida plus Bama and UGA.
Not “phantom narrative “ ! Facts , it’s not arguable.

The Phantom narrative was 8.5 predictions based on speculation.

Can’t argue with fools. Y’all gonna stick with your wrong argument, doesn’t matter how many times I shoot it down with facts.
Y’all have fun today with your coloring books and LEGO’s,
Us adults have work to do.

 

[Firebirdparts]

When I look at Tennessee's offensive productivity, I have to admit that it's not been very good. A reasonable person might ask how in the world are we here? This is just a year where everybody else has a problem. NO TEAM in the SEC has great quarterback play this year. It's a strange year. Alabama and Georgia in particular just don't have very good quarterbacks at the same time. Texas has been more productive, but of course we don't play them. Even their offense's numbers have gotten worse as the season went on. All the "great" teams have also suffered butterfinger receivers this year too.

 

[OHvol40]

You’re confused.
What’s in front of my face is 4 out of conference cream puffs, 6 SEC teams with only one better than 6-6 and that’s 7-5 Florida plus Bama and UGA.
Not “phantom narrative “ ! Facts , it’s not arguable.

The Phantom narrative was 8.5 predictions based on speculation.

Can’t argue with fools. Y’all gonna stick with your wrong argument, doesn’t matter how many times I shoot it down with facts.
Y’all have fun today with your coloring books and LEGO’s,
Us adults have work to do.

No need to get emotionally hurt.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

When I look at Tennessee's offensive productivity, I have to admit that it's not been very good. A reasonable person might ask how in the world are we here? This is just a year where everybody else has a problem. NO TEAM in the SEC has great quarterback play this year. It's a strange year. Alabama and Georgia in particular just don't have very good quarterbacks at the same time. Texas has been more productive, but of course we don't play them. Even their offense's numbers have gotten worse as the season went on. All the "great" teams have also suffered butterfinger receivers this year too.

The offense has looked a lot better the last couple of weeks and Nico is the reason. He will continue to get b3etter every game he plays. Some of this is because the offensive line is also playing better which has given him more time to throw the ball. He still needs to find the open receivers and more receivers have been becoming open. If we can eliminate the 10 penalties, we can win the whole thing. Oh, we also need to eliminate the every game fumble. Our secondary has become one of the best in the Nation and our kicking game is top notch, if we kick the kickoffs into end zone.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

It's no question that Vols have overachieved.

Most of us were content and in an overwhelming majority going into this year as 9-3. Sure, we had no idea the defense was going to make the leap it did. Sure, we had no idea Dylan was going to be the record breaking force we saw. Sure, the rest of the offense fell below expectations. I think most of us assumed Nico and the veteran receiving core would carry us.

Reality surpassed our perceived picture of 24, for the most part. Most of us picked a UGA loss. Most of us picked an Arky win.

We were about 60/40 in favor of OU. Bama was 40/60 in their favor.

This thing surpassed most pre-season calls. What counts? 10 and effing 2 with a possible CFP host game.

NegaVols need to sit and spin on this

Much of that overachieving can be because the the greatly improvement in the defensive secondary. What some thought was our weakest link has become one of our strongest strengths. Another strength has been the running game ; one which has become one of our mot strongest positions. Just think what our defense would have been if Pili and Heard had not been injured and if Heard did not have to play himself into better condition. I think we would have beaten Georgia with Pili in the lineup.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

It's no question that Vols have overachieved.

Most of us were content and in an overwhelming majority going into this year as 9-3. Sure, we had no idea the defense was going to make the leap it did. Sure, we had no idea Dylan was going to be the record breaking force we saw. Sure, the rest of the offense fell below expectations. I think most of us assumed Nico and the veteran receiving core would carry us.

Reality surpassed our perceived picture of 24, for the most part. Most of us picked a UGA loss. Most of us picked an Arky win.

We were about 60/40 in favor of OU. Bama was 40/60 in their favor.

This thing surpassed most pre-season calls. What counts? 10 and effing 2 with a possible CFP host game.

NegaVols need to sit and spin on this

Exactly.

The "Legions of the Miserable" as Coach Majors dubbed them, currently known as NegaVols or Negas are a miserable lot. They will never be happy, and always find ways to pick apart our beloved VOLS. Not just in football...the same mental midgets call for Barnes job every year that our BasketVols do not make the Final Four, or win it all...which is every year. Nevermind the fact that he is the best mens Bball coach we have ever had. That he is a HOF coach that is universally respected by players and coaches alike.

Fortunately the NegaVols are a very small (but disproportionately loud) portion of our fanbase. In real life, at games whether on the field or in the arena, their tiny number are easily drowned out by those of us who deeply love UT and strongly support our athletes. The only place the Miserable have any voice is here online, and thankfully nobody really takes them seriously here, either.

"Misery loves company."

Fortunately the rest of us have better things to do with our time.