Overachieved

[Vol8188]

Who wanted to fire "everyone"? That said, I don't think they "overachieved". Nico wasn't great and at times wasn't even very good. Nowhere near the Hooker level the Vols needed to overachieve. The D performed pretty much in alignment with their level of talent and depth in the front 7. Really good for the most part. The secondary overachieved according to expectations but probably not according to talent. There are some really talented guys in UT's secondary. The run game overachieved.

Kind of a mixed bag. Heupel considers it a step in program growth. IMHO, he's right. They have not arrived.

Are you knew here? The oline coach, WR coach, OC, QB coach, and DB coach are frequently stated as coaches who need to be fired.

Lmfao you can’t even admit our defense overachieved?

You don’t have to “arrive” to overachieve. Both the playoffs and 10 wins were not expected of UT this season. Neither was having one of the better defenses in the country.

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

I think if you were told we would only play 3 FBS teams with a winning record at the conclusion of the regular season, then 10-2 would not exceed the expectations. Frankly given the way our opponents looked, 10-2 was the minimum acceptable record.

 

[Vol8188]

That's a baseline based on someone else's perspective. In real life things are fluid.

Vegas had aTm under 8.5 (at -120) wins and last night they were playing for a spot in the SEC CG. Did the over or underachieve in your opinion?

They’re basically right at expectations, but slightly underachieved. Not sure what your point was with that example.

 

[DeepSpringsVol]

Nico wasn't great and at times wasn't even very good.

Kind of a mixed bag. Heupel considers it a step in program growth. IMHO, he's right. They have not arrived.

With Nico saw too many people comparing him to Hendon. Besides the obvious that Hendon was much older many forget he was pretty good in 2021 after taking over for Milton but no way we thought he would be as good as he was in 2022. I am cautiously optimistic Nico will make his big surge in 2025. Another off season to get better at learning Heupels system and put on a tad more pounds to trust putting him in more designed QB run plays. What we got this year we should have expected some growing pains.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

What does no one do…win all the games that they’re supposed to on paper. That’s what makes your 11-1 expectation insane

Keep up the good fight 8188. As usual bro.

All these clowns yapping....but we had preseason polls RIGHT HERE IN THE FF and the vast majority...70% said 9-3. Of the remaining 30% or so there were far more people who said 8-4 than said 10-2.

Vegas put the o/u at 8.5wins for a reason. For millions of reasons actually. $$$ With a freshman QB, questionable Oline and DBs, it was just as likely for us to go 8-4 as 9-3 and thats ONLY IF we avoided injuries at really important positions such as QB, RB, Corner, OTackle, Center etc etc.

Evil little Nick Saban himself could not have turned this program around ANY faster than our staff has. They have done an AMAZING job. I would have said that at 9-3 with a bowlgame too. We lost 8 games just 4 seasons ago for the first time EVER at Tennessee. Ever. Then got put on probation and most of the best players left for places like Oklahoma and UNC, or Bama. Coach Hype didnt even have a full roster of players until this season...yet we won 11 games in 2022 and were even ranked #1 in the nation for the first time in over 20 years. 30 wins now in the last 3 seasons with a chance to add to that total with a HOME PLAYOFF game!!!

We are SO LUCKY to have this staff. Very thankful for them. Need to give Banks, Garner, and Chop big raises to keep them happy. GO VOLS. LETS DO THIS 2024

 

[sjt18]

Are you knew here? The oline coach, WR coach, OC, QB coach, and DB coach are frequently stated as coaches who need to be fired.

Am I "knew"? LOL. I guess that goes to your definition of "frequently". There are a few pretty dumb people who have taken shots at the OC. The rest seem to be even more rare than that.

Lmfao you can’t even admit our defense overachieved?

Laugh all you want. UT has one of the deepest and most talented Ds in the country. You can be really, really good and not be considered to have "overachieved".

You don’t have to “arrive” to overachieve. Both the playoffs and 10 wins were not expected of UT this season. Neither was having one of the better defenses in the country.

Expected by who? I expected it. A lot of the talking heads liked UT's chances of making the playoffs. And frankly... most didn't expect some of UT's opponents to be as flat out bad as they are. NCSU was supposed to be great. OU was expected to be much better. Bama wasn't as good as expected at the start.

It was a great achievement... but "overachieved" doesn't apply unless you are using some BVS standard.

BTW, "overachieving" doesn't lose to a really pretty bad Arkansas on any day... anywhere on the planet.

 

[sjt18]

What does no one do…win all the games that they’re supposed to on paper. That’s what makes your 11-1 expectation insane

Nothing "insane" about it. UT should not have lost to Arkansas and would have been 11-1 with really no "surprise" wins had they done so. Bama wasn't a reach at Neyland by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Vol8188]

Am I "knew"? LOL. I guess that goes to your definition of "frequently". There are a few pretty dumb people who have taken shots at the OC. The rest seem to be even more rare than that.

Laugh all you want. UT has one of the deepest and most talented Ds in the country. You can be really, really good and not be considered to have "overachieved".

Expected by who? I expected it. A lot of the talking heads liked UT's chances of making the playoffs. And frankly... most didn't expect some of UT's opponents to be as flat out bad as they are. NCSU was supposed to be great. OU was expected to be much better. Bama wasn't as good as expected at the start.

It was a great achievement... but "overachieved" doesn't apply unless you are using some BVS standard.

BTW, "overachieving" doesn't lose to a really pretty bad Arkansas on any day... anywhere on the planet.

Lmfao if you think our oc is the one who people have called to fire the most and that it’s only been a few, youre not worth the time

 

[sjt18]

Lmfao if you think our oc is the one who people have called to fire the most and that it’s only been a few, youre not worth the time

What time period? Martinez took a lot of heat but I think that's died down this year.

FWIW, I've answered the call to "fire the OC" myself. That's essentially calling for Heupel's head. It is a display of ignorance by those saying it.

 

[mudhen]

No, they EARNED this.

 

[Vol8188]

What time period? Martinez took a lot of heat but I think that's died down this year.

FWIW, I've answered the call to "fire the OC" myself. That's essentially calling for Heupel's head. It is a display of ignorance by those saying it.

Go to a game thread and hit refresh anytime the other team catches a pass.

Go to the recruiting forum and look that the David Sanders thread from the this week.

Go to the WR threads over the last two weeks.

 

[Vol8188]

No, they EARNED this.

lol what? Overachieving doesn’t mean “unearned”

 

[Boca Vol]

They’re basically right at expectations, but slightly underachieved. Not sure what your point was with that example.

How about Clemson? They backdoored into the ACC CG. 90+% of Clemson fans see this season (so far) as a failure...based on preseason predictions. Getting hammered by UGA and beat by USC to bookend the season.

And they have a "shot" to win the natty. Go figure.

Point is, again, these things are fluid.

 

[Vol8188]

How about Clemson? They backdoored into the ACC CG. 90+% of Clemson fans see this season (so far) as a failure...based on preseason predictions. Getting hammered by UGA and beat by USC to bookend the season.

And they have a "shot" to win the natty. Go figure.

Point is, again, these things are fluid.

Yes, they underachieved. Projected win total was 9.5 regular season games.

Sure they have a shot to win a title. But that’s a different question. You can underachieve in the regular season and still win a national championship.

 

[GVol1966]

10 wins and a playoff birth, both are more than was expected in the preseason.

Y’all still wanna fire everyone?

Not sure it’s more than was expected.
Only really expected to lose to UGA and Bama.
Beat Bama but lost to Arkansas, who we definitely expected to beat.
I’d say on track.

 

[Vol8188]

Not sure it’s more than was expected.
Only really expected to lose to UGA and Bama.
Beat Bama but lost to Arkansas, who we definitely expected to beat.
I’d say on track.

Coming into the season most thought Oklahoma was a likely loss. NC State, Florida, Kentucky and several other teams were considered possible losses.

 

[GVol1966]

Coming into the season most thought Oklahoma was a likely loss. NC State, Florida, Kentucky and several other teams were considered possible losses.

So.
Coming into the season most thought those teams were good.
None were at the time we played them.

If the pre-season expectations were accurate then I’d say we overachieved.
They weren’t.

 

[Vol8188]

So.
Coming into the season most thought those teams were good.
None were at the time we played them.

If the pre-season expectations were accurate then I’d say we overachieved.
They weren’t.

Outside of NC St, those teams were good. Kentucky beat Ole Ms at home. Vandy beat Bama. Florida beat everyone it felt like at least.

Florida and Vandy for sure were better than expected. Same with Arkansas.

You seem to want to remove credit for beating teams who didn’t play up to expectations while simultaneously denying credit for beating teams who outplayed their expectations.

Either way we beat our expectations

 

[MemphisVol77]

Keep up the good fight 8188. As usual bro.

All these clowns yapping....but we had preseason polls RIGHT HERE IN THE FF and the vast majority...70% said 9-3. Of the remaining 30% or so there were far more people who said 8-4 than said 10-2.

Good post. I've been wondering if anyone was going to reference that. Of the people in this thread claiming we didn't overachieve, I think only one or two of them were on record predicting 10+ wins.

When Vegas plus the majority of media outlets, pundits, and fan base polls predict you to win 8-9 games; then it's reasonable to say you've overachieved at 10-2.

Evil little Nick Saban himself could not have turned this program around ANY faster than our staff has. They have done an AMAZING job. I would have said that at 9-3 with a bowlgame too. We lost 8 games just 4 seasons ago for the first time EVER at Tennessee. Ever. Then got put on probation

As you laid-out, Heupel has done an outstanding job, but I've got a few concerns. I'm not calling for anyone's job on our staff, or claiming they should be on the hot seat, but next year is show time for Pope and Elarbee IMHO. Show time in that I want to see significant contributions from players we recruited out of HS. They've done great with developing a few inherited players and portal pickups, but the portal alone isn't sustainable. I would have loved if those were my biggest concerns 4-5 years ago, lol.

 

[GVol1966]

Outside of NC St, those teams were good. Kentucky beat Ole Ms at home. Vandy beat Bama. Florida beat everyone it felt like at least.

Florida and Vandy for sure were better than expected. Same with Arkansas.

You seem to want to remove credit for beating teams who didn’t play up to expectations while simultaneously denying credit for beating teams who outplayed their expectations.

Either way we beat our expectations

Kentucky was awful.
Florida, most on here had Billy fired midseason, they were not good.when we played them.
Oklahoma couldn’t score against a HS team when we played them.
They were not good.

I deal with facts. Not hypotheticals.
Any teams like Vandy and Arkansas who were better than expected were not better than us or nearly as talented so we should have beaten both.
I stand by my original statement.
Our record was what it should have been.
No more, no less.

 

[Vol8188]

Kentucky was awful.
Florida, most on here had Billy fired midseason, they were not good.when we played them.
Oklahoma couldn’t score against a HS team when we played them.
They were not good.

I deal with facts. Not hypotheticals.
Any teams like Vandy and Arkansas who were better than expected were not better than us or nearly as talented so we should have beaten both.
I stand by my original statement.
Our record was what it should have been.
No more, no less.

Lmfao yes, florida was good when we played them.

When you say “we should have beaten both”….thats a hypothetical. So yes, you obviously deal in hypotheticals. The entire exercise of projecting who should win is a hypothetical.

What people like yourself fail to understand is basic statistics. Everyone of the games we’ve mentioned had an x% chance of us losing. Maybe they were 70/30 or 60/40. But the point is if you have a lot of 70/30 and 60/40 matchups…even if it’s 60/40 in your favor, you’re going to lose some of those.

So you look at it and think with your orange glasses “we are better than everyone but Georgia and maybe Bama”…and fail to ask the question “how much better?”. If the answer is a lot of 60/40 or 70/30 propositions, youre likely to lose at least one of those

That’s why the Vegas odds made by people who understand statistics are far better ways to gauge over/under achievement than the views of random fan x

 

[Vols1891]

A lot of people were ready to fire Heupel in the first quarter of the Vandy game. Butch is just a phone call away. He’s got Arkansas State at 7-5 and bowling again.

 

[GVol1966]

Lmfao yes, florida was good when we played them.

When you say “we should have beaten both”….thats a hypothetical. So yes, you obviously deal in hypotheticals. The entire exercise of projecting who should win is a hypothetical.

What people like yourself fail to understand is basic statistics. Everyone of the games we’ve mentioned had an x% chance of us losing. Maybe they were 70/30 or 60/40. But the point is if you have a lot of 70/30 and 60/40 matchups…even if it’s 60/40 in your favor, you’re going to lose some of those.

So you look at it and think with your orange glasses “we are better than everyone but Georgia and maybe Bama”…and fail to ask the question “how much better?”. If the answer is a lot of 60/40 or 70/30 propositions, youre likely to lose at least one of those

That’s why the Vegas odds made by people who understand statistics are far better ways to gauge over/under achievement than the views of random fan x

You lost the argument on your last post,
When you said Kentucky was a good team.
LMAO!!

Saying we should have beaten them is not hypothetical.
It’s based on we were better and more talented, hence we are in the playoffs and they are no where near.

Give up even your statistics argument supports me.
So we’re only 60/40 or 70/30 better,
We should still be expected to win and losing to them is NOT, repeat NOT overachieving!
Or did you forget that was the original statement.
Overachieving.

 

[Vol8188]

You lost the argument on your last post,
When you said Kentucky was a good team.
LMAO!!

Saying we should have beaten them is not hypothetical.
It’s based on we were better and more talented, hence we are in the playoffs and they are no where near.

Give up even your statistics argument supports me.
So we’re only 60/40 or 70/30 better,
We should still be expected to win and losing to them is NOT, repeat NOT overachieving!
Or did you forget that was the original statement.
Overachieving.

It’s 100% a hypothetical. Someone doesn’t understand statics or the term hypothetical.

If you have 3 60/40 games that you’re favored in, the odds are that you’ll lose one. If you failed stats, I can do the exact math for you. But no, the odds of 3 60/40 propositions all coming through is low (around 21%). That’s why parlays pay off so well if you hit one

So no, the expectation for a team slightly favored in 3 games (60/40 propositions) would not be that they win all three. It would be that they go 2-1.

This is the part you guys don’t understand when you claim 10-2 should be expected

 

[CR-vol]

Unlikely to see SEC officials at least in the 1st game. Not sure if it is intentional bias or something subconscious but I don't believe that penalty on #19 gets called on any other SEC team. I am certain that the Vols routinely get called for holds that are standard fare for UGA.

The holds are what they are - they could call one after every snap right? But maybe if we weren't always lining up offsides on defense for goodness sakes. I mean if the team is already commiting a bunch of dumb mistakes they're gonna get closer scrutiny overall. Clean football ain't too much to expect I don't think. Cleaner anyways.