Playoff Chaos Tomorrow

#26
#26
appyvol said:
If the cards fall right, can any of the three sneak into the playoffs? I say Arizona is the ONLY chance.
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Arizona could, but besides beating Oregon would need some help. They'd have to get some combination of:
  1. Missouri beating Alabama
  2. TCU losing to a 2-9 Iowa State
  3. Georgia Tech beating FSU
  4. Wisconsin beating Ohio State
  5. Kansas State beating Baylor

Arizona would need - were they to win - possibly 2-4 of those things to happen (and for Wisconsin's and Kansas State's victories to not so impressive as to possibly jump Baylor).

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Georgia Tech's a different story, because of having an extra several teams in front of them. They would not only need for probably most (or all) of the above list to happen but for Missouri and ISU to utterly humiliate Bama and TCU in extremely one-sided games. They would then need to do pretty much the same to FSU and do so by enough of a final score margin that the committee would rocket them past Mississippi State, Michigan State, and the losers from the scenarios above.

And those losses to Duke and UNC - while not terrible - aren't really doing them any favors either (especially the one to UNC, who just got blown out by NCST last week 35-7 to end the season with a 6-6 record.



I mean...is there some degree of possibility or feasibility...yeah it could happen.

But the chances of it would be very, very low.

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There's little chance Missouri could. Not only would they need all that help, but they'd have to not only beat Alabama but do so in an overly impressive manner...like in an 80 points scored kind of way (something to very generously rocket them up the polls, were they to win, especially with the number of teams in front of them that are all on bye)...which wouldn't happen, both because of their offense and their coach has had a past tendency to call off the dogs before things get anywhere near that level.

It'd be near impossible this year.
 
#28
#28
RDU VOL#14 said:
Wanted to get some people's opinion of what would happen Sunday if Oregon loses to Zona, Baylor loses to K State, Georgia Tech beats FSU (which I do think will happen), Ohio loses to Wisconsin (which I do think will happen) and Bama loses to Mizzou (I don't see happening)?

This is the ultimate dooms day scenario for the Selection Committee. While unlikely that this occurs, it is not out of the realm of possibility. There is real potential for this to be a ginormous cluster ####.
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So if that happened, we'd have:

1 loss:
TCU - Big 12 co-champs w/ tiebreaker
FSU

2 losses:
Missouri - SEC champs
Arizona - Pac 12 champs
Kansas St - Big 12 co-champs
Wisconsin - Big 10 champs
Ga Tech - ACC champs
Alabama
Oregon
Mississippi State
Michigan State
Baylor
Ohio St

I'd take TCU, Missouri, Arizona, Wisconsin
 
#29
#29
sammyjoey said:
So if that happened, we'd have:

1 loss:
TCU - Big 12 co-champs w/ tiebreaker
FSU

2 losses:
Missouri - SEC champs
Arizona - Pac 12 champs
Kansas St - Big 12 co-champs
Wisconsin - Big 10 champs
Ga Tech - ACC champs
Alabama
Oregon
Mississippi State
Michigan State
Baylor
Ohio St

I'd take TCU, Missouri, Arizona, Wisconsin
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They'd take TCU and Arizona. FSU possibly, it would depend on how close the GT loss was. And then it'd be 1 of (or if FSU got absolutely blown out, 2 of) KSU/Bama/Oregon...would just depend on how bad the losses were.


Wisconsin would have to wreck OSU though.
 
#30
#30
TrueOrange said:
We totally need to be giving those 3 and 4 loss teams a shot at a national championship.
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Again, it happens at every other NCAA level. But the NCAA says it can't happen for FBS because of "missed school time" or too much travel.
 
#31
#31
MSUDuo said:
Again, it happens at every other NCAA level. But the NCAA says it can't happen for FBS because of "missed school time" or too much travel.
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Aren't there also like 13-14 pretty much equal-level conferences in FCS as well? As opposed to the FBS's 5 conferences followed by a massive drop off in quality to the other FBS conferences.



I get you're upset your team's not in there after how the year started. That aside, though, there's no reason that an 8-4 USC, 8-4 Utah, and 8-4 LSU should all have shots at a national championship after having the kind of years they did.
 
#32
#32
bamawriter said:
But you aren't understanding the issue. If you go to a 10 game regular season in order to accomodate an 8 team playoff, there are only 4 teams that would play 12 or more games. There are a bunch of programs that will not be able to survive with a 10 game season.
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How do FCS teams do it on smaller budgets?
 
#36
#36
TrueOrange said:
Aren't there also like 13-14 pretty much equal-level conferences in FCS as well? As opposed to the FBS's 5 conferences followed by a massive drop off in quality to the other FBS conferences.







I get you're upset your team's not in there after how the year started. That aside, though, there's no reason that an 8-4 USC, 8-4 Utah, and 8-4 LSU should all have shots at a national championship after having the kind of years they did.
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No, there are not 13-14 equal conferences. The ignorance is high in this thread.

My board nickname has nothing to do with Mississippi State...

Doesn't have to go to 24. Go to 16. KState, Mizzou, Wisconsin, Michigan St, etc all have shown enough for a chance.

I'm guessing you'd be ok with just a 8 team March Madness field as well then? I mean, how dare the 3rd place team from the AAC win the whole thing with 8 losses?
 
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#37
#37
bamawriter said:
FCS budgets on both sides of the ledger. And they can play a money gamr and make 75% of their yearly budget in one trip.
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The Eastern Michigans of the world are playing money games every year too. If we went to 10 games with the possibility of 15 or more, I would think the money games would stick around as your OOC games. No one would want to play 15-16 weeks vs BCS level opponents.

Unless FCS schools arent giving out full scholarships I don't see how the budgets can't be tightened at the EMU's of the world. The cost of educating, housing and feeding an athlete is going to be marginally different between institutions. They may have to trim their travel means, team meals etc. I just don't see how a UTC can potentially play 3 more games than a TCU, all away from home and survive financially but the smaller "big" schools can't.
 
#38
#38
bowlinggreenvol said:
The Eastern Michigans of the world are playing money games every year too. If we went to 10 games with the possibility of 15 or more, I would think the money games would stick around as your OOC games. No one would want to play 15-16 weeks vs BCS level opponents.

Unless FCS schools arent giving out full scholarships I don't see how the budgets can't be tightened at the EMU's of the world. The cost of educating, housing and feeding an athlete is going to be marginally different between institutions. They may have to trim their travel means, team meals etc. I just don't see how a UTC can potentially play 3 more games than a TCU, all away from home and survive financially but the smaller "big" schools can't.
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Well, FCS schools give out fewer scholarships for one. The conferences are much more geographically manageable as well.
 
#41
#41
Right now, it's probably:

#1 Alabama.
#2 Oregon.
#3 TCU.
#4 FSU.

If FSU, loses, then it's tOSU (if they win), or Baylor (if they win and the Buckeyes lose).

I expect the committee to stick with their current 1-3. #4 will be determined by what happens in the next few hours. FSU's to lose, with Ohio State and Baylor trying to make their argument via margin of victory.

Let the chaos begin...

Go Vols.
 
#43
#43
MyBloodRunnethOrange said:
Oregon is in. The only chaos I see happening is when TCU makes it in over a more deserving Baylor.
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- Baylor won by 3 at home. A win is a win. Advantage Baylor.
- They have 7 common opponents. TCU is 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 27.3; Baylor is 6-1, with a 22.1 AMOV. Advantage TCU.
- TCU played 4 of those 7 on the road; Baylor played 4 of those 7 at home. Advantage TCU.
- TCU's SOS is #45; Baylor's is #64. Advantage TCU.
- Under the old BCS system, TCU would be #4, and Baylor would be #6. Advantage TCU.

The committee got it right. TCU has the edge in a very close comparison.

Go Vols.
 
#44
#44
GreyWolf1129 said:
- Baylor won by 3 at home. A win is a win. Advantage Baylor.
- They have 7 common opponents. TCU is 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 27.3; Baylor is 6-1, with a 22.1 AMOV. Advantage TCU.
- TCU played 4 of those 7 on the road; Baylor played 4 of those 7 at home. Advantage TCU.
- TCU's SOS is #45; Baylor's is #64. Advantage TCU.
- Under the old BCS system, TCU would be #4, and Baylor would be #6. Advantage TCU.

The committee got it right. TCU has the edge in a very close comparison.

Go Vols.
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I fail to see how head to head doesn't trump all those other things. And we're not under the BCS so that point is meaningless.

If that doesn't count more, then why play the games?
 
#45
#45
VolsSportsFan said:
I fail to see how head to head doesn't trump all those other things. And we're not under the BCS so that point is meaningless.

If that doesn't count more, then why play the games?
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Because it's the "body of work". Baylor won a shootout, at home, where a critical penalty put them in place for a game-winning FG. That game, honestly, was a coin toss.

TCU has played a tougher schedule; TCU played better, with a better record, against common opponents.

The games DO count. Baylor lost by 14, on the road, to a 7-5 WVU team. TCU lost by 3, on the road, to a 10-1 Baylor team. And TCU beat that same WVU team, 31-30, on the road. Head-to-head counts for something, but all the metrics except one favor TCU.

I happen to agree with the committee on this one.
 
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#47
#47
GreyWolf1129 said:
- Baylor won by 3 at home. A win is a win. Advantage Baylor.
- They have 7 common opponents. TCU is 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 27.3; Baylor is 6-1, with a 22.1 AMOV. Advantage TCU.
- TCU played 4 of those 7 on the road; Baylor played 4 of those 7 at home. Advantage TCU.
- TCU's SOS is #45; Baylor's is #64. Advantage TCU.
- Under the old BCS system, TCU would be #4, and Baylor would be #6. Advantage TCU.

The committee got it right. TCU has the edge in a very close comparison.

Go Vols.
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That margin of victory is skewed by the fact that TCU hung 82 on Texas Tech. The difference in SOS is a midpack Big 10 team TCU played.
TCU beat Oklahoma by 3 at home. Baylor beat Oklahoma 48-14 on the road.
Baylor beat Kansas 60-14. TCU beat Kansas 34-30.
We can cherry pick and spin the schedule to favor either team. Bottom line is they played and Baylor won.
 
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#48
#48
I may not matter between TCU and Baylor. They could both be out if FSU wins and the way Ohio St. is lookinh right now.
 
#50
#50
The way things are looking, might not be any upsets tonight. Going to be hard to say no to 2 of these teams.
 
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