Pons declares for draft

[BruinVol]

Because most of VolNation doesn’t know how the NBA views players.

They think that players getting an extra in college is a good thing when it’s the exact opposite. The older you are the worse it is for you.

I’d Dont often agree with you but getting older is 110% not a good thing when it comes to the draft.

 

[BruinVol]

I think he’s likely very late 2nd to undrafted right now, I think he could be late 1st/early 2nd with another good year.

That’s a wider range than I can buy. I don’t see him going from undrafted to late first round.

especially considering our times we live in now. No one is talking about it but now is the worst time in the world to get better

 

[Rrcox1951]

I’ve only seen one writer, from NBC sports, who has Pons rated highly enough to be drafted. IMO, if there was going to be a draft combine, I could see him wowing the League with his physical attributes and rising onto the second round. However, these are tough, uncharted times, which is why a much smaller number of players this year are declaring for the draft.
Pons has actually been on the NBA’s radar for a long time. I actually read an evaluation of him by a scout before Yves even got to UT.
I would selfishly like to see him come back for his senior year, but considering his age and circumstances (married), I would much prefer him to make a decision that is best for him. If that means leaving UT now, so be it. He’ll still be a VFL, French version!

 

[BruinVol]

This is probably a dumb question but how does pons skill set compare to Rodman ???

we know Rodman was very poor offensively

I know Rodman was a rebounding machine but can Pons be anywhere close to that kind of defender ?

 

[vols 30]

This is probably a dumb question but how does pons skill set compare to Rodman ???

we know Rodman was very poor offensively

I know Rodman was a rebounding machine but can Pons be anywhere close to that kind of defender ?

Hell, can anyone? For all his quirks, no one played defense and gave %100 every single game like him.

 

[vols 30]

I’d Dont often agree with you but getting older is 110% not a good thing when it comes to the draft.

I think it's high. Maybe 90%. I think Bone might have played his way into getting drafted. More money? Maybe more security?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

This is probably a dumb question but how does pons skill set compare to Rodman ???

we know Rodman was very poor offensively

I know Rodman was a rebounding machine but can Pons be anywhere close to that kind of defender ?

Matisse Thybulle is a name I have seen mentioned, picked 20th overall last year as a senior out of Washington. 6’5” 200lbs, senior year 31mpg 9.1ppg 3.1rg 2.1apg 3.5spg 2.3bpg 42%fg 56%2pt 31%3pt 85%ft...was known as an elite defender.

Pons as a junior, 6’6” 215lbs 34mpg 10.8ppg 5.4rpg 1.1apg 0.4spg 2.4bpg 49%fg 56%2pt 35%3pt 64%ft.

FWIW Thybulle was considered a late 2nd rounder/undrafted if he came out as a junior.

 

[livefaith]

This is probably a dumb question but how does pons skill set compare to Rodman ???

we know Rodman was very poor offensively

I know Rodman was a rebounding machine but can Pons be anywhere close to that kind of defender ?

I'm dumb w you then. That's exactly the comparison I've been thinking of w Pons. Same athleticism, good defense, and can rebound. Rodman had a unique mindset and approach. Maybe Pons could carve himself out a niche like Dennis in this "new & improved" type of 3pt arc ball. I've read where scouts like Pons open look 3pt % from last year, so they're seeing him as a possibility parked out there w the rest of the bigs.

 

[BruinVol]

I'm dumb w you then. That's exactly the comparison I've been thinking of w Pons. Same athleticism, good defense, and can rebound. Rodman had a unique mindset and approach. Maybe Pons could carve himself out a niche like Dennis in this "new & improved" type of 3pt arc ball. I've read where scouts like Pons open look 3pt % from last year, so they're seeing him as a possibility parked out there w the rest of the bigs.

Maybe pons can make up the deficit he would have in Rebounding to him, and that’s a large one, with being a better shooter. Rodman was just an awful shooter

 

[livefaith]

Maybe pons can make up the deficit he would have in Rebounding to him, and that’s a large one, with being a better shooter. Rodman was just an awful shooter

Yep. I just saw the other day where Rodman never played HS basketball! Only FB and then got some kid of invite to play BBall at a tiny school. Defense and RB gets him a shot in the league and the guy went nuts with it. Pons would do well to get @ 100 game tapes of the guy and just study the heck out of his play. Especially rebounding. He has the athleticism and fearlessness I believe.

The guy is a psycho, but when he stepped on the court. Dang! Check the 1:00-1:05 mark ... who does that?!?

 

[walkenvol]

Barnes is bring in two top 40 guard players, Vescovi is coming back, and Walker can handle the ball a little bit. You think Rick Barnes is going to let Yves handle the ball more? Give him more opportunities to make plays and create?

It is ludicrous.

If Pons shows CRB some success handling the ball then definitely yes. It’s on Pons to improve his skills in the off season. Don’t remember exactly, but I think it was against Gonzaga where Pons was driving to the basket intending to slam and was blocked cold. The announcers went ape shat. Haven’t really seen him try that since.

 

[Vols8086]

Matisse Thybulle is a name I have seen mentioned, picked 20th overall last year as a senior out of Washington. 6’5” 200lbs, senior year 31mpg 9.1ppg 3.1rg 2.1apg 3.5spg 2.3bpg 42%fg 56%2pt 31%3pt 85%ft...was known as an elite defender.

Pons as a junior, 6’6” 215lbs 34mpg 10.8ppg 5.4rpg 1.1apg 0.4spg 2.4bpg 49%fg 56%2pt 35%3pt 64%ft.

FWIW Thybulle was considered a late 2nd rounder/undrafted if he came out as a junior.

Thybulle was seen as an elite 1 on 1 perimeter defender and won the National Defensive player of the year. Also broke Gary Payton's career steals record. He led the nation in steals in fact his senior. He isn't a great draft comparison to Pons despite the numbers. Thybulle is a much better all around offensive player as well. Very smooth. Has a quick release and good form on his jumper. Solid feel on the offensive end.

Pons is more known for his diversity as a defender, but isn't viewed as a lock down defender yet. I do think Pons profiles better than Thybulle in his ability to guard posts. I don't think Pons offensive game will ever be more than knocking down wide open 3 balls and catching lobs, which limits him ever getting drafted in the first round.

It's really not a good comp if you actually watch their games and understand how the NBA views prospects despite looking close by box score viewing.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Thybulle was seen as an elite 1 on 1 perimeter defender and won the National Defensive player of the year. Also broke Gary Payton's career steals record. He led the nation in steals in fact his senior. He isn't a great draft comparison to Pons despite the numbers. Thybulle is a much better all around offensive player as well. Very smooth. Has a quick release and good form on his jumper. Solid feel on the offensive end.

Pons is more known for his diversity as a defender, but isn't viewed as a lock down defender yet. I do think Pons profiles better than Thybulle in his ability to guard posts. I don't think Pons offensive game will ever be more than knocking down wide open 3 balls and catching lobs, which limits him ever getting drafted in the first round.

It's really not a good comp if you actually watch their games and understand how the NBA views prospects despite looking close by box score viewing.

Curious how you came to that conclusion on the offensive end?

Thybulle shot 55.5% from 2 on 3.3 attempts per game, 30.5% from 3 on 4.2 attempts per game, 85.1% free throws on 1.9 attempts per game.

As a junior....Pons shot 55.5% from
2 on 5.9 attempts per game, 34.9% from 3 on 2.8 attempts per game, 63.8% free throws on 2.2 attempts per game.

Pons likely will be in the running for 2x SECDPOY and also national DPOY aa well...he’s better on the offensive end already and if he makes similar improvement from the FT line that will only become more accurate. You say Pons offensive game is only spot up 3’s yet he took twice the 2 point attempts as Thybulle and shot the exact same percentage....Thybulle is the one who took more 3’s per game.

 

[Vols8086]

Curious how you came to that conclusion on the offensive end?

Thybulle shot 55.5% from 2 on 3.3 attempts per game, 30.5% from 3 on 4.2 attempts per game, 85.1% free throws on 1.9 attempts per game.

As a junior....Pons shot 55.5% from
2 on 5.9 attempts per game, 34.9% from 3 on 2.8 attempts per game, 63.8% free throws on 2.2 attempts per game.

Pons likely will be in the running for 2x SECDPOY and also national DPOY aa well...he’s better on the offensive end already and if he makes similar improvement from the FT line that will only become more accurate. You say Pons offensive game is only spot up 3’s yet he took twice the 2 point attempts as Thybulle and shot the exact same percentage....Thybulle is the one who took more 3’s per game.

You're just comparing box scores and not actually looking at their individual game and how it translates at the next level.

UW would run plays for Thybulle on the offensive end, with him curling off screens looking to shoot/score. You can watch his footwork on those screens and shooting form/quick release and see that he has a chance to be more than just a wide open catch and shoot guy offensively. He doesn't need as much space to get his shot off. Not to mention he has a decent feel on offense and has some (albeit limited) ability to create for others.

Now compare that to Pons. He isn't coming off of screens and shooting. All of his 3's are wide open. He did a lot of damage from being the trailer on the play and then shooting. His release is on the slower side. As for your comment on his 2 point attempts, what were they? Dunks from lobs or someone created for him, or him posting someone up on the block and shooting that fadeaway. How does that project at the next level, especially if he is the "5" in small ball lineups? He won't get that shot off in the NBA with any sort of regularity. He is one of the best athletes in college basketball. He won't be that in the NBA. He won't be able to just rise up and shoot fadeaway jumpers from the block. Pons has absolutely zero ability to create for others and needs more space to actually get his jump shot off than he will get in the NBA.

Lastly the NBA game used to be built around the dominant big man and a dominant post game. It couldn't be further from that today. So when you're making projections at the next level, the guard is viewed as having higher value than the post. Pons is going to be viewed as an undersized 4 with defensive versatility. Not the same as Thybulle who was viewed as a 2 at the next level. Not to mention that free throw % is viewed as how good a shooter someone can develop into at the NBA level. Pons at 64% says he is what he is. Thybulle at 85% says he has room to grow.

 

[JelloPuddinPup]

Not to mention that free throw % is viewed as how good a shooter someone can develop into at the NBA level. Pons at 64% says he is what he is. Thybulle at 85% says he has room to grow.

That's the biggest thing I see from the box scores that tells me the difference. I think @Vols8086 is pretty spot on. Nothing he's saying is a knock to Pons, it's just not a good comparison for him.

 

[JelloPuddinPup]

One thing that I hadn't really thought of because it's not done much anymore. Pons could be a great candidate as a "draft and stash" player. Despite the college playing career he is a foreign-born player and the NBA team that drafts him (would assume 2nd round at best) could help him get into a better league that would emphasize developing him and he could earn $ while being monitored by the team. Obviously that's not any guarantee that he'd ever develop and make it to the NBA but it's a possibility and keeps him on NBA radars while being overseas as opposed to just going directly overseas and working to build those relationships from the outside-in.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

That's the biggest thing I see from the box scores that tells me the difference. I think @Vols8086 is pretty spot on. Nothing he's saying is a knock to Pons, it's just not a good comparison for him.

I think as far as recent comps go it’s about as accurate as you’ll find...Thybulle maybe “looks” like he has more offensive game, but the numbers don’t really support that at all. For someone that Washington was “running plays for” Pons was still managing to get even more looks, so what does that say about their offensive ability? Thybulle was also only 71% from the free throw line as a junior, improved to 85% as a senior...so what happens if Pons makes a similar jump from 64% to 79%?

I feel like my main point is being missed though, I wasn’t trying to say they are identical players...he’s a guy that is known for defense, wasn’t considered a 1st rounder by anyone as a junior, came back to school and got a year older and went 1st round while his offensive game actually took a step backwards. Many on here are trying to say that returning to school and getting a year old is guaranteed to hurt your draft stock, especially if the offense doesn’t take a big jump.

 

[golfballs]

I think Thybulle is a better defender for his position than Pons is for his.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think Thybulle is a better defender for his position than Pons is for his.

I think 1-1 yes, but I think Pons probably is more versatile in the positions he can effectively defend.

 

[Vols8086]

I think as far as recent comps go it’s about as accurate as you’ll find...Thybulle maybe “looks” like he has more offensive game, but the numbers don’t really support that at all. For someone that Washington was “running plays for” Pons was still managing to get even more looks, so what does that say about their offensive ability? Thybulle was also only 71% from the free throw line as a junior, improved to 85% as a senior...so what happens if Pons makes a similar jump from 64% to 79%?

I feel like my main point is being missed though, I wasn’t trying to say they are identical players...he’s a guy that is known for defense, wasn’t considered a 1st rounder by anyone as a junior, came back to school and got a year older and went 1st round while his offensive game actually took a step backwards. Many on here are trying to say that returning to school and getting a year old is guaranteed to hurt your draft stock, especially if the offense doesn’t take a big jump.

Returning to school isn't a guarantee his draft stock slips, but I don't think Pons will be able to make the leap all the way to a first round prospect. Kobe Bryant is one of the hardest workers in all of sports and he would talk about only being able to add 1 or 2 things to his game in an offseason. Pons needs to speed up his shot and maybe even work on the mechanics a little as he still has a tendency to push it some and not just shoot it. That would probably take an entire offseason to master alone. If he can shoot 80+% from the FT line and 40% from 3 (teams will break that down further and look at his wide open percentage which probably needs to be around 45%) to even be considered as a high to mid 2nd rounder. To be in the conversation for round 1, he needs to improve his ball handling and play making abilities, show an ability to come off screens ready to score, and develop a better dribble drive attack. That is in addition to the improved shooting. He still has to show he can be a lock down defender as well 1 on 1, and on the perimeter. If Kobe thinks you can only master 1 or 2 with as hard as he worked (not to mention the talent he had) what makes you think Pons can double or triple what Kobe could do in an offseason?

As far as your first paragraph, I really don't know what to tell you. You're literally cherry picking a couple stats. Check out the advanced metrics. Look at Thybulle's career as a whole. Just go watch some video on Thybulle and let me know if you still think him and Pons are good comps as prospects. You're basically on here trying to say a dump off for a wide open dunk that was generated by a point guard (Vescovi to Pons) is somehow more impressive to an NBA scout than a guy coming off the "floppy action" (if you don't know google it, one of the oldest plays in the NBA). I'm not sure if it's homerism or you genuinely don't understand, but regardless it's just not a great comp.

 

[JelloPuddinPup]

Many on here are trying to say that returning to school and getting a year old is guaranteed to hurt your draft stock, especially if the offense doesn’t take a big jump.

There's really only a few reasonable cases that staying helps that I see and I'm sure I'm missing some but these come to mind the quickest.

1. You look completely and utterly lost on one end of the court and don't have elite physical talents to suggest you will overcome them in time.
2. You're undersized and need to drastically improve your conditioning as well as another year of tape to prove you can play against high end competition.
3. Your ceiling is a solid rotation player that does a lot of things well but no one skill is elite. Ex: You're a potential 3-and-D style player but need to have a full season of solid 3p%, etc. (This applies to older , 2/3/4yr college players in my opinion.)

But to agree with your overlying point, no it's not a guarantee that staying will hurt your draft stock. I'm curious though if there's any studies that have #s on those types of situations yet. As far as we are into analytics in sports there's got to be a good amount of data to begin drawing correlations on that.

 

[LeannaVol]

Returning to school isn't a guarantee his draft stock slips, but I don't think Pons will be able to make the leap all the way to a first round prospect. Kobe Bryant is one of the hardest workers in all of sports and he would talk about only being able to add 1 or 2 things to his game in an offseason. Pons needs to speed up his shot and maybe even work on the mechanics a little as he still has a tendency to push it some and not just shoot it. That would probably take an entire offseason to master alone. If he can shoot 80+% from the FT line and 40% from 3 (teams will break that down further and look at his wide open percentage which probably needs to be around 45%) to even be considered as a high to mid 2nd rounder. To be in the conversation for round 1, he needs to improve his ball handling and play making abilities, show an ability to come off screens ready to score, and develop a better dribble drive attack. That is in addition to the improved shooting. He still has to show he can be a lock down defender as well 1 on 1, and on the perimeter. If Kobe thinks you can only master 1 or 2 with as hard as he worked (not to mention the talent he had) what makes you think Pons can double or triple what Kobe could do in an offseason?

As far as your first paragraph, I really don't know what to tell you. You're literally cherry picking a couple stats. Check out the advanced metrics. Look at Thybulle's career as a whole. Just go watch some video on Thybulle and let me know if you still think him and Pons are good comps as prospects. You're basically on here trying to say a dump off for a wide open dunk that was generated by a point guard (Vescovi to Pons) is somehow more impressive to an NBA scout than a guy coming off the "floppy action" (if you don't know google it, one of the oldest plays in the NBA). I'm not sure if it's homerism or you genuinely don't understand, but regardless it's just not a great comp.

Someone being unnecessarily argumentative and condescending to BTO. How the tables have turned.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Returning to school isn't a guarantee his draft stock slips, but I don't think Pons will be able to make the leap all the way to a first round prospect. Kobe Bryant is one of the hardest workers in all of sports and he would talk about only being able to add 1 or 2 things to his game in an offseason. Pons needs to speed up his shot and maybe even work on the mechanics a little as he still has a tendency to push it some and not just shoot it. That would probably take an entire offseason to master alone. If he can shoot 80+% from the FT line and 40% from 3 (teams will break that down further and look at his wide open percentage which probably needs to be around 45%) to even be considered as a high to mid 2nd rounder. To be in the conversation for round 1, he needs to improve his ball handling and play making abilities, show an ability to come off screens ready to score, and develop a better dribble drive attack. That is in addition to the improved shooting. He still has to show he can be a lock down defender as well 1 on 1, and on the perimeter. If Kobe thinks you can only master 1 or 2 with as hard as he worked (not to mention the talent he had) what makes you think Pons can double or triple what Kobe could do in an offseason?

As far as your first paragraph, I really don't know what to tell you. You're literally cherry picking a couple stats. Check out the advanced metrics. Look at Thybulle's career as a whole. Just go watch some video on Thybulle and let me know if you still think him and Pons are good comps as prospects. You're basically on here trying to say a dump off for a wide open dunk that was generated by a point guard (Vescovi to Pons) is somehow more impressive to an NBA scout than a guy coming off the "floppy action" (if you don't know google it, one of the oldest plays in the NBA). I'm not sure if it's homerism or you genuinely don't understand, but regardless it's just not a great comp.

I appreciate your insight and opinion...I’m curious what 2-3 things Thybulle mastered when he came back as a junior that made him a 1st rounder? What metrics can you point to and say he made huge improvements on (mastered) from year 3 to 4?

Also, if Pons “improves his ball handling and play making abilities, show an ability to come off screens ready to score, and develop a better dribble drive attack. That is in addition to the improved shooting. He still has to show he can be a lock down defender as well 1 on 1, and on the perimeter.” You are talking about a lottery pick, not a fringe 1st rounder.

 

[Vols8086]

I appreciate your insight and opinion...I’m curious what 2-3 things Thybulle mastered when he came back as a junior that made him a 1st rounder? What metrics can you point to and say he made huge improvements on (mastered) from year 3 to 4?

Also, if Pons “improves his ball handling and play making abilities, show an ability to come off screens ready to score, and develop a better dribble drive attack. That is in addition to the improved shooting. He still has to show he can be a lock down defender as well 1 on 1, and on the perimeter.” You are talking about a lottery pick, not a fringe 1st rounder.

I never said Thybulle mastered anything, but he also showed significantly more at this stage in his career than Pons has overall. Especially as it projects to his role in the NBA and his offensive abilities. Thybulle already had a season where he shot 40% from 3. He already had an 84% FT mark for a season. He was already considered an elite perimeter defender. What he needed to beef up was his physicality and all the little things he would be expected to do as a 3 and D guy.

Here are some advanced metrics on Thybulle from his JR to SR year and how that compares to Pons.

Thybulle's Def rating increased by 11%, which is impressive because he was already viewed as an elite defender. Pons same number increased by 3% this past season.
Thybulle's Steal % increased by close to 50% while his block % increased by close to 100%. In fact, Thybulle's block % his senior year was better than Pon's this past season.
His PER continued to increase every year as a player, and in comparison to Pons, Thybulle's PER was almost 20% higher his junior year than Pons this season, and 25% higher his senior year. In fact Pons just barely beat Thybulle's sophomore season in PER by 3%.
His defensive rebounding % increased by about 50%.
While Pons had a nice increase in his numbers this year, it came at his minutes per game tripling. Thybulle pretty much played around 30 minutes per game from his sophomore season on. So the fact his numbers increased that dramatically despite him actually playing about 1 minute less is very impressive.

Thybulle's senior year defensively put him in rare company in terms of steals and blocks. The only 2 other players that have ever averaged 2 blocks and 2 steals per game were both top 10 picks in the NBA draft. Thybulle is the first (and only) in college basketball history to average 3 steals and 2 blocks per game for an entire season.

Thybulle was a pretty sure bet to be a 2nd rounder after his junior season. He clearly understood what his role would be at the next level and made some solid improvements in the areas a 3 and D player needs to improve in to increase his stock. Add to that he had shown an ability to knock down the 3 at a high clip, you can see the total package coming together at the next level to warrant a late first to a contender. Especially when you consider the 76ers drafted him and they don't have any cash left to spend due to the huge contracts for Embiid, Simmons, and Tobias.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So a guys 3pt% decreasing by nearly 10% over 2 years with the same number of shot attempts is somehow seen as a positive? Interesting spin you did there, somehow if Pons 3pt percentage drops at all next year I doubt you would spin it as a positive. Pons shot 42% on catch and shoot 3’s, which is exactly what the NBA is looking at right now, he’s not going to be a guy any team is looking at to be an offensive weapon. Thybulle sure wasn’t asked to be a main offensive weapon this year, he’s asked to be a knock down shooter and an elite defender, something Pons as a junior is already being acknowledged as. Maybe 1-1 he’s not the elite perimeter defender, but Thybulle also doesn’t have the same versatile as a defender as Pons does either. I’ve already acknowledged Pons needs to improve, but if he does that even marginally on the offensive end, say...38% overall from 3, and 45%+ on open 3’s, 75%+ from the free throw line while maintaining his 2pt% and defensive play then I definitely could see him sneaking into the back end of the first round.

All of those are very doable things, especially considering he’s improved on most of those already each year...I don’t think he needs to drastically improve his ball handling, play making abilities, show he can come off screens, develop his dribble drive, continue to improve his shooting and also become an elite 1-1 defender...again he does all that at his size and his elite athleticism and you are talking a Top 15 pick.