'25 Portal Thread

#853
#853
Vols410 said:
Calculating them myself on top of data from practically everywhere I can get it. A ton of scraping, lots of normalizing, fuzzy-matching with player names, data cleaning.

All the metrics per position are fed into a bunch of models to determine how they impact their team’s performance, points scored/allowed, etc. with adjustments for SOS, usage, alignment, and context. Then each metric has its own set of models to find out how much to weight each year / game and how much to weight recruiting grades to get a forward-locking estimate of points added.

It’s quite similar to Evan Miya’s approach in basketball actually, if you’re familiar. Hopefully life will settle down enough at some point to get it up on a website.
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Spraggjns has been pretty bad this year. How is he so high? Every SEC game I rewatched this year he gets beat several times in pass pro (haven’t rewatched Vandy).
 
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#855
#855
T2P_Priceless said:
Spraggjns has been pretty bad this year. How is he so high? Every SEC game I rewatched this year he gets beat several times in pass pro (haven’t rewatched Vandy).
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Good question! A few reasons:
  1. The SEC is monstrous. OL metrics are adjusted for opponent defense strength, and IOL are also adjusted for the strength of the interior defensive line. Spraggins, as result, doesn’t have the best production stats but he’s got one of the highest SOS boosts.
  2. OL stats are also adjusted for other team factors. In Spraggins case, he gets a slight boost in pass protection metrics because Nico gets a bit more blame for his sacks than most other QBs.
  3. OL stats are quite slow to stabilize, so to get a better predictive stat previous years need to be weighted more heavily. Spraggins did take a step down this year (from an 84 to an 81 I believe) but there’s still a good chunk of last year helping his grade because that’s what the models say is the best way to predict future performance.
  4. He’s still not all that high by SEC standards. Around 40-50th in the SEC which would still put him in the low half of IOL starters in the conference. His grade is relative to the average IOL in all of FBS, and he still grades out as merely above average for that group, though I’d consider him below average for an SEC starter.
Pardon the essay. Hope that helps!
 
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#857
#857
RDU VOL#14 said:
Not surprised. They’re severely lacking playmakers. Who does UGA have lined up after Beck? You didn’t hear anyone clamoring for the star in waiting when Beck was playing so poorly. Sounds like they could have a competition next year.
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IMG_6278.gif
 
#860
#860
SoilVol said:
Heard is going to make a huge jump next year. He's improved so much over the course of this year and that second year jump is a real thing. Especially with linemen.
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Great. Hope all the OL make a huge jump…..
If someone better wants to transfer in, do you turn them down?
 
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#861
#861
peaygolf said:
Great. Hope all the OL make a huge jump…..
If someone better wants to transfer in, do you turn them down?
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If a better OT wants to come, it will be at a huge cost in NIL. Do you want to use a lot of NIL on an OT that MIGHT be an upgrade or land 2-3 good players (OG, DT, S, etc) for that same amount? You have to act like you have a budget...because you do.
 
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#862
#862
peaygolf said:
Great. Hope all the OL make a huge jump…..
If someone better wants to transfer in, do you turn them down?
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That's a bit of a loaded question and it depends on a lot of variables.

I personally think Heard will lock down the left next year and will be our best OL since Wright. Also, Johnson has played well in limited time since that Oklahoma game. I think he's a capable backup and might contend for RT. I think you can bring in someone to compete at RT that only has 1-2 years left. I don't think its necessary or realistic that we will have a chance at or pay for a top transfer tackle though. Sanders, Johnson, Warren, etc will compete for RT and be good imo.

If there's a guard available I think you absolutely bring him in and pay for it. Especially if Karic is done.

the peanut gallery doesnt have the full picture or knowledge of if someone in the portal is better than the young backups though. So whatever the staff does will tell us whats going on there.
 
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#863
#863
Lloyd_Christmas said:
If a better OT wants to come, it will be at a huge cost in NIL. Do you want to use a lot of NIL on an OT that MIGHT be an upgrade or land 2-3 good players (OG, DT, S, etc) for that same amount? You have to act like you have a budget...because you do.
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Exactly, plus does that cause quality depth and development to transfer?

We keep complaining about none of our high school recruits getting snaps and living in the portal in the OL and nows our first real opportunity for those guys to step into starting spots and we are begging for a transfer lol
 
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#864
#864
SoilVol said:
That's a bit of a loaded question and it depends on a lot of variables.

I personally think Heard will lock down the left next year and will be our best OL since Wright. Also, Johnson has played well in limited time since that Oklahoma game. I think he's a capable backup and might contend for RT. I think you can bring in someone to compete at RT that only has 1-2 years left. I don't think its necessary or realistic that we will have a chance at or pay for a top transfer tackle though. Sanders, Johnson, Warren, etc will compete for RT and be good imo.

If there's a guard available I think you absolutely bring him in and pay for it. Especially if Karic is done.
We fans don’t have the full picture or knowledge of if someone in the portal is better than the young backups though. So whatever the staff does will tell us whats going on there.
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Fixed it for you!
 
#866
#866
SoilVol said:
That's a bit of a loaded question and it depends on a lot of variables.

I personally think Heard will lock down the left next year and will be our best OL since Wright. Also, Johnson has played well in limited time since that Oklahoma game. I think he's a capable backup and might contend for RT. I think you can bring in someone to compete at RT that only has 1-2 years left. I don't think its necessary or realistic that we will have a chance at or pay for a top transfer tackle though. Sanders, Johnson, Warren, etc will compete for RT and be good imo.

If there's a guard available I think you absolutely bring him in and pay for it. Especially if Karic is done.

the peanut gallery doesnt have the full picture or knowledge of if someone in the portal is better than the young backups though. So whatever the staff does will tell us whats going on there.
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I think Perry is the RT.
 
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#871
#871
I know there quite a few in here who said “see you in the portal when Seaton committed to Colorado.” So to those who said that, how is that working out?
 
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#872
#872
Lloyd_Christmas said:
If a better OT wants to come, it will be at a huge cost in NIL. Do you want to use a lot of NIL on an OT that MIGHT be an upgrade or land 2-3 good players (OG, DT, S, etc) for that same amount? You have to act like you have a budget...because you do.
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SoilVol said:
That's a bit of a loaded question and it depends on a lot of variables.

I personally think Heard will lock down the left next year and will be our best OL since Wright. Also, Johnson has played well in limited time since that Oklahoma game. I think he's a capable backup and might contend for RT. I think you can bring in someone to compete at RT that only has 1-2 years left. I don't think its necessary or realistic that we will have a chance at or pay for a top transfer tackle though. Sanders, Johnson, Warren, etc will compete for RT and be good imo.

If there's a guard available I think you absolutely bring him in and pay for it. Especially if Karic is done.

the peanut gallery doesnt have the full picture or knowledge of if someone in the portal is better than the young backups though. So whatever the staff does will tell us whats going on there.
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Obviously lots of grey, and what I’m saying is straight black/white.

My whole point was if I can find someone better, I’m getting them if at all possible. No matter who.
Win now.
 
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#873
#873
peaygolf said:
Obviously lots of grey, and what I’m saying is straight black/white.

My whole point was if I can find someone better, I’m getting them if at all possible. No matter who.
Win now.
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It's absolutely a risk/reward situation. I don't take Heupel as being the type to kick a high quality player/kid to the curb for a slight improvement. It has to be a clear and obvious improvement and I don't know where on the line that would be and who in the portal will be available/interested at any line position other than RG.

We see the way Heupel handles underperforming coaches (I think that's due to his history being fired at OU undeservingly) and we've really only seen guys replaced when it was obvious they weren't cutting it as upperclassmen.
 
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#874
#874
peaygolf said:
Obviously lots of grey, and what I’m saying is straight black/white.

My whole point was if I can find someone better, I’m getting them if at all possible. No matter who.
Win now.
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Heard was the top LT in the portal last year. We have a lot of money invested in him. We’re not going to go spend that much more to go get a guy who is this year what Heard was last year.

You have to allocate resources. Spend in the portal where you have needs. We did that on Heard last year. Now you develop him and ride him.
 
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#875
#875
NighthawkVol said:
Heard was the top LT in the portal last year. We have a lot of money invested in him. We’re not going to go spend that much more to go get a guy who is this year what Heard was last year.

You have to allocate resources. Spend in the portal where you have needs. We did that on Heard last year. Now you develop him and ride him.
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I understand that…..
Hypothetically…..if the best LT in the country knocks on your door and says, “ I want to play at UT.” Do you say, “ No. We already have a pretty good LT.”
 
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