Predict the East

#301
#301
BeattieFeathers said:
No way jose! Get real! Nick saban wins because he has the best players. All coaches will tell you it's the Jimmy's and joes not X's and O's.
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You are wrong... and have you REALLY surveyed "all" coaches? I doubt it. Of course they will publicly give their players credit.

The "great" programs are the ones that combine elite talent with elite coaching. Saban has it going. Carroll had it going.

There are numerous examples of coaches who failed because they were great salemen to recruits... but could not coach effectively.

Texas had zero players drafted this season. If you think missouri has average players because of rivals rankings you are sadly mistaken. 75 percent talent, 15 percent coaching, 10 percent luck, but I'm sure you'll tell me luck has nothing to do with it and you will ignore comments from every coach that has ever coached that you need material.
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You don't speak for "every" coach... and I have not denied that you need talent.

Mizzou didn't have elite talent across the board. If you had any discernment on this at all, you would recognize what he does. He has some stars then fills in around them with role players with mediocre talent.

Depending on the coach, system, et al... talent may account for anything from 40% to 90% of a team's results. I'd put Miles pretty close to 90% and Pinkel pretty close to the low end. It is worse than ignorant for you to attempt to claim some "one size fits all" rule on this... but fairly consistent with your other stuff.

Coaching is either a drag on talent or an enhancer of it. Great coaches get more out of their talent than bad coaches. That is self-evident.

And... there is no such animal as "luck". It belongs in the same box as fairy tales. Cause => Effect.
 
#302
#302
sjt18 said:
You are wrong... and have you REALLY surveyed "all" coaches? I doubt it. Of course they will publicly give their players credit.

The "great" programs are the ones that combine elite talent with elite coaching. Saban has it going. Carroll had it going.

There are numerous examples of coaches who failed because they were great salemen to recruits... but could not coach effectively.

You don't speak for "every" coach... and I have not denied that you need talent.

Mizzou didn't have elite talent across the board. If you had any discernment on this at all, you would recognize what he does. He has some stars then fills in around them with role players with mediocre talent.

Depending on the coach, system, et al... talent may account for anything from 40% to 90% of a team's results. I'd put Miles pretty close to 90% and Pinkel pretty close to the low end. It is worse than ignorant for you to attempt to claim some "one size fits all" rule on this... but fairly consistent with your other stuff.

Coaching is either a drag on talent or an enhancer of it. Great coaches get more out of their talent than bad coaches. That is self-evident.

And... there is no such animal as "luck". It belongs in the same box as fairy tales. Cause => Effect.
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You got dome weird ideas bro.
 
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#306
#306
sjt18 said:
Do I really need to produce data showing that teams with lots of talent but poor coaching don't win championships? Is it really necessary to do that?

You said that talent was the "single" most important factor. If that were true then Charlie Weiss would have gone down as an ND legend. Kiffin would still be HC of USC. Ron Zook would have been fine. Mack Brown would certainly still be at Texas. Talent is necessary but so is elite coaching. The FACT that teams with talent don't always win big... demonstrates that coaching is a coequal component of success... and especially if you consider that recruiting is a function of coaching and a coach's demonstrated success.

Elite coaching, not talent, put Oregon on the national stage. Poor coaching, not poor talent, sunk Texas, USC, and others.

Missouri won the East. Overall, they were at best the 5th most talented team in the East.
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As for Pinkel, he was thought to be on the hot seat going on to last season. Did he and his staff just become coaching sensations over night? Or was it the fact that his team suffered a terrible injury the year before? But I forgot, you think coaching should be able to rescue a team from a horrific injury?
 
#307
#307
LWSVOL said:
talent alone doesn't equal automatic wins.. Carolina was more talented than Tennessee last year. Tennessee was more talented than Vanderbilt last year.

If football was as simple as most talented team wins, you and I could coach.
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I think Auburn is a good example. In 2012 they had a very talented team but had lost their offensive coach. They won 3 games. They regain that same coach and elevate him to the top job and they have one of the best offenses in the nation, making it all the way to the national championship game. Their defense sucked beyond compare but their offense was lights out. I don't think there's a better offensive coach in the league than Malzahn. He's had incredible success his entire career. I honestly think what was said of Bear Bryant at least on offense may apply to Malzahn, "He could take his'n and beat your'n or he could take your'n and beat his'n."

I think Butch is a first class program manager. I like the culture, the APR performance, and the recruiting. I'm not sold on either of our coordinators one way or the other but I know he believes in them. One of Dooley's issues in 2011 was disharmony among some of the staff. He alluded to it in at least one interview that I saw. I think maybe Wilcox didn't approve of some of the position coaches he was saddled with. I think Butch built his staff for unity. Malzahn had issues with head coaches when he was an offensive coordinator. They sometimes butted heads. After the season he'd move on to a new job and continue to enjoy success. The head coach he left behind inevitably got exposed and was fired.

I'd like Butch to stay with us indefinitely but if the time comes that he has to upgrade coordinators I hope he'll be able to do that. jmo.
 
#311
#311
BeattieFeathers said:
I'm sure our friend will expound on how great coaching can make up lack of speed.
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Players coached well will read plays better and faster. Players coached will will be in position and will line up more effectively. So yes, great coaching in fact CAN make up for a lack of speed.

This happens ALL THE TIME AT EVERY LEVEL OF FOOTBALL.
 
#312
#312
BeattieFeathers said:
As for Pinkel, he was thought to be on the hot seat going on to last season. Did he and his staff just become coaching sensations over night? Or was it the fact that his team suffered a terrible injury the year before? But I forgot, you think coaching should be able to rescue a team from a horrific injury?
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Nice. How many deceptive debate tactics did you use in that one post? I see at least 3. I see a false premise, one or two straw men, and probably a fallacy of limited alternatives. Congratulations. Most people have to work pretty hard to engage in that much false reasoning. You seem to have a real talent for it.

Pinkel was on a hot seat? According to who? I live in MO. People here expected it to be several years before he competed for the SEC.

Their record and system speaks for itself. When they have the right pieces, they can compete.

His team DID have injuries to key players in the previous year.... just like they HAVE NOW lost players to leaving the program.
 
#313
#313
BeattieFeathers said:
It will take a while for the oline to jel.
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Why? Serious question. The guys who just left never seemed to quite gel though they seemed to be close off the field and do many of the right things to be close.

This is another of those things where if the chemistry is right then it doesn't take long but if the chemistry is wrong... it never happens.

So why exactly do you think it "will take a while"? Could it? Yes. But it might not take that long also... or it may never happen.


In a way, I can understand why Jones might not have wanted to replace any of the Sr's from last year's OL. But all other things being equal, I hope that guys who aren't performing either as individuals or as a unit will NOT be kept as starters like that. The chemistry of that group definitely needed some "hot sauce". They didn't have anyone who was really aggressive. The new group may not have as much talent... but a couple of them have a nasty streak.
 
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#314
#314
We have Florida and Missouri at home and those are games we need to win.
I'll say we win both and the East will look like this:

Georgia
SC
Tennessee
Florida
Missouri
Vandy
Kentucky
 
#315
#315
sjt18 said:
Why? Serious question. The guys who just left never seemed to quite gel though they seemed to be close off the field and do many of the right things to be close.

This is another of those things where if the chemistry is right then it doesn't take long but if the chemistry is wrong... it never happens.

So why exactly do you think it "will take a while"? Could it? Yes. But it might not take that long also... or it may never happen.


In a way, I can understand why Jones might not have wanted to replace any of the Sr's from last year's OL. But all other things being equal, I hope that guys who aren't performing either as individuals or as a unit will NOT be kept as starters like that. The chemistry of that group definitely needed some "hot sauce". They didn't have anyone who was really aggressive. The new group may not have as much talent... but a couple of them have a nasty streak.
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You seem to be saying that Butch Jones better be an elite coach. I don't believe Dave Hart shares your expectations. Butch jones is neither an offensive guru like Spurrier or a defensive guru like Saban. Butch jones is a CEO coach like Coach Fulmer. He must be able to continue to recruit well enough to put us in position to compete with the better teams in this league. I noticed that Vegas has the over and under for the Vols at 4.5 wins. Honestly, we could lose a so called winnable game and it would not change my opinion on a Butch Jones. It has been a long time since we have lost to a Rutgers,Virginia at homecoming, or go forbid Georgia Souhern. There is a reason that Vegas does not think much of us and it's got nothing to do with coaching. We don't have the players. :lolabove:
 
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#316
#316
sjt18 said:
Nice. How many deceptive debate tactics did you use in that one post? I see at least 3. I see a false premise, one or two straw men, and probably a fallacy of limited alternatives. Congratulations. Most people have to work pretty hard to engage in that much false reasoning. You seem to have a real talent for it.

Pinkel was on a hot seat? According to who? I live in MO. People here expected it to be several years before he competed for the SEC.

Their record and system speaks for itself. When they have the right pieces, they can compete.

His team DID have injuries to key players in the previous year.... just like they HAVE NOW lost players to leaving the program.
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Right pieces? But butch is supposed to be a miracle worker? That is your expectation, sir. You expect butch jones to work miracles and be the best coach in football. I don't.....I expect him to coach his players up but I also realize he was left very little to work with by the last guy.
 
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#317
#317
BeattieFeathers said:
Right pieces? But butch is supposed to be a miracle worker? That is your expectation, sir. You expect butch jones to work miracles and be the best coach in football. I don't.....I expect him to coach his players up but I also realize he was left very little to work with by the last guy.
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True. Also it's not just about talent either. CBJ has had to change the attitude, culture, and psyche of the players and fans, which under Dooley were awful. Even with talent, things like that take time, so if we're 6-6 or 5-7 this year, it's not really fair to instantly assign the blame on coaching. (In the unlikely event of 4-8, I would question though)
 
#318
#318
BeattieFeathers said:
Right pieces? But butch is supposed to be a miracle worker?
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Winning 6-8 games this year makes him a miracle worker... and especially when he will have more talent than six opponents? You REALLY need to work on having more respect for facts... and what people actually say. Your strawman arguments are too obvious.

Jones needs to be a championship caliber coach unless losing seasons and an occasional Music City Bowl meets your standard. Of course that's what you seemed to have suggested a while back so maybe we should just agree that our expectations are different.

That is your expectation, sir. You expect butch jones to work miracles and be the best coach in football.
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I don't expect miracles. I am unsure you can say there is one guy worthy of the title "best coach in football"... but, YES, I would like to see the UT head coach mentioned in that conversation.

I don't.....I expect him to coach his players up but I also realize he was left very little to work with by the last guy.
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No. You expect to lower the bar and have no one call you on it.

The first part of that statement is obvious. You expect mediocrity. You long for the days when UT was an also ran. You definitely cannot be confused with someone who expects the UT standard for its coach and football team to be "championship caliber".

Fortunately for me... Jones and guys who write big checks seem to disagree with your low expectations.
 
#319
#319
GBO97 said:
True. Also it's not just about talent either. CBJ has had to change the attitude, culture, and psyche of the players and fans, which under Dooley were awful. Even with talent, things like that take time, so if we're 6-6 or 5-7 this year, it's not really fair to instantly assign the blame on coaching. (In the unlikely event of 4-8, I would question though)
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It does not take years to change attitude or even culture. It doesn't take more than one meeting to change "psyche"... it just takes clear expectations and consistency.

It is completely fair to "blame" the coaching if UT loses to another team this year with less talent. Championship caliber coaches don't make a habit of doing that.
 
#320
#320
I hate vn. I get in here to get some uplifting news and nothing but a bunch if bickering and crying, arguing bs! And I fall right into it
 
#321
#321
Vol8188 said:
Why USC jr over UT?
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Is this a serious question? They have16 starters back, 9on O and 7 on D. They lose Shaw on offense,but return a veteran QB, entire OL, every RB, all TE's and all but 1 WR. Their OL is ranked #2 in SEC for 2014. RB Mike Davis is a stud. On D, they lose Clowney, Quarles and 2 CB's. They are loaded at expeienced DT's and LB's. They have some serviceable DE's, two great S's and will be relying on their highly touted CB recruits to fill in immediatelly at CB, which though not ideal, is the same thing many schools do with some success occasionally. Most of all, they have Spurrier back. He is 33-6 ovrpast three years. Finished ranked #4 last year, top 10 three straigh now. They have been recruiting top 15-20 type classes since spurrier has been there. He obviously gets enough talent to do the job. Kids like Shaw and many of his other 3 star ratd players ae inthe league now, so they were poorly rated to begin with. It is fine to be optimistic, but to act incredulous when someone picks a recent 11-2 squad to place ahead of a recent 5-7 squad that has even fewer returning players is just silly.
 
#322
#322
WilliamDuVOL said:
"4. South Carolina-they haven't been able to recruit with the rest of the pack, and will suffer from major loses on the dline."

Does this perhaps sound like a familiar theme? Perhaps what our competition is saying about us?
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Ding Ding Ding!
 
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#323
#323
Boca Vol said:
DAJ's data that you're speaking of really only states that the more talented team will win almost 70% of the time. That's not some earth-shattering stat. Hell, I can pick 70% winners most of the time just looking at the teams....which is all DAJ is really saying.

The contrary teams to what DAJ's data says are Oregon and Stanford.

On paper, UT and Oregon were about even. On paper, UT and South Carolina were about even (maybe a slight edge to UT).

To the eye test, there is no way UT and Oregon were even. That disproves DAJ's data.

On the other hand, the UT/ S. Carolina game proved DAJ's data.

When you look at recruiting rankings, you have give more weight to the upper classes vs the newer players. Also, there really isn't that much difference between teams ranked 6-10, 11-15, etc. That's where the coach comes in!
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Correct.
 
#325
#325
sjt18 said:
Nice. How many deceptive debate tactics did you use in that one post? I see at least 3. I see a false premise, one or two straw men, and probably a fallacy of limited alternatives. Congratulations. Most people have to work pretty hard to engage in that much false reasoning. You seem to have a real talent for it.

Pinkel was on a hot seat? According to who? I live in MO. People here expected it to be several years before he competed for the SEC.

Their record and system speaks for itself. When they have the right pieces, they can compete.

His team DID have injuries to key players in the previous year.... just like they HAVE NOW lost players to leaving the program.
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Yes and no. He kind of was, but it was in an odd way

Locally, no he was mostly okay in Missouri.

Regionally (being the area covered by the conference) and nationally, however, there was an odd media push that "Missouri wasnt ready for the SEC" and that "Pinkel clearly wasn't the guy Missouri needed if it really wanted to compete in the SEC."

It was one of those that he shouldn't be on the hot seat, but media was insisting the fans should be pushing for a new coach.
 
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