Predicting our Final Class Ranking - 2016

#76
#76
TriedAndTrueVOL said:
Back counting is kept a secret? Not really lol...it's pretty easy to figure out by looking at class size and EE's. Now blueshirts, etc. are kept quiet for the most part and most info out there is purely speculative until a class is locked in.
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It's not easy to figure out how many they back count. Sure, they can only back count up to the number of EEs. But they can usually back count more than is obvious. And they never state how many they are back counting or let it be known how many they can take in a class. From here forward we will have a pretty good idea because we know that they started forward counting with their 3 blue shirts. Until now, we could have gone back years and speculated how many they back counted in each class.
 
#81
#81
Kristy* said:
It's not easy to figure out how many they back count. Sure, they can only back count up to the number of EEs. But they can usually back count more than is obvious. And they never state how many they are back counting or let it be known how many they can take in a class. From here forward we will have a pretty good idea because we know that they started forward counting with their 3 blue shirts. Until now, we could have gone back years and speculated how many they back counted in each class.
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K
 
#85
#85
TriedAndTrueVOL said:
Back counting is kept a secret? Not really lol...it's pretty easy to figure out by looking at class size and EE's. Now blueshirts, etc. are kept quiet for the most part and most info out there is purely speculative until a class is locked in.
Click to expand...

There were no spots to back count anyone from 2015 back to 2014 class. There was one blue shirt brought forward from 2014 to the 2015 class. They were allowed to back count 6 from 2014 class to 2013 class due to previous back counts in previous classes. That left a full class for 2014 enrollment of 25 which means zero spots to back count 2015 class.

We signed 30 players for 2015. Plus, we have to count RD Abernathy as an initial counter. Plus we have to count Swafford as an initial counter because he went on scholarship last summer. that brought number to 32 for the 2015 class. Thus, we had 7 blue shirts. Only option to get 32 enrolled for 2015 is to count 7 forward.

this is why Butch has told his staff in every meeting, 18 is the number for 2016.

I quoted the wrong post, I apologized.
 
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#86
#86
LWSVOL said:
There were no spots to back count anyone from 2015 back to 2014 class. There was one blue shirt brought forward from 2014 to the 2015 class. They were allowed to back count 6 from 2014 class to 2013 class due to previous back counts in previous classes. That left a full class for 2014 enrollment of 25 which means zero spots to back count 2015 class.

We signed 30 players for 2015. Plus, we have to count RD Abernathy as an initial counter. Plus we have to count Swafford as an initial counter because he went on scholarship last summer. that brought number to 32 for the 2015 class. Thus, we had 7 blue shirts. Only option to get 32 enrolled for 2015 is to count 7 forward.

this is why Butch has told his staff in every meeting, 18 is the number for 2016.

I quoted the wrong post, I apologized.
Click to expand...

Thanks Larry.
I was pretty sure there was little chance we could have backcounted anyone in '15 back to '14
 
#87
#87
Kristy* said:
I see 31 for 2014. That means 8 back counted to let us back count 2 for '15.
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I don't see how you can make that number work..

2009 signing class was 24
2010 was 27
2011 was 27
2012 was 22
2013 was 23
2014 was 32
2015 was 30

There is no way 8 openings can be available over those seasons to back count 8 in any one year. Impossible to make the numbers work.
 
#88
#88
LWSVOL said:
There were no spots to back count anyone from 2015 back to 2014 class. There was one blue shirt brought forward from 2014 to the 2015 class. They were allowed to back count 6 from 2014 class to 2013 class due to previous back counts in previous classes. That left a full class for 2014 enrollment of 25 which means zero spots to back count 2015 class.

We signed 30 players for 2015. Plus, we have to count RD Abernathy as an initial counter. Plus we have to count Swafford as an initial counter because he went on scholarship last summer. that brought number to 32 for the 2015 class. Thus, we had 7 blue shirts. Only option to get 32 enrolled for 2015 is to count 7 forward.

this is why Butch has told his staff in every meeting, 18 is the number for 2016.

I quoted the wrong post, I apologized.
Click to expand...

Thank you, Larry. :hi: I don't know why it's all so difficult to accept. Maybe poster can understand a little better now that there are plenty of people here other than themselves who follow/understand recruiting and have good info.
 
#89
#89
85SugarVol said:
Thanks Larry.
I was pretty sure there was little chance we could have backcounted anyone in '15 back to '14
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This.^ There was no way possible to back count back to '14. 2 huge classes have left us with no choice but taking a small class this year.
 
#90
#90
TriedAndTrueVOL said:
This.^ There was no way possible to back count back to '14. 2 huge classes have left us with no choice but taking a small class this year.
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:good!:

A top 10 - 15 class would actually be acceptable this year based off of numbers taken. Of course we all want top 10 and i suppose it could happen, but this is a solid depth class. Key positions of need. If we take 18 or less it could be difficult to crack the top 10, but that does not mean the players we take are any less talented. That is the part a lot of people seem to not get. Rankings are partially based on numbers of players.

We'll be fine taking less this year. 2017 should be a good year numbers and talent wise though. Just my opinion though.
 
#91
#91
BaldBiker said:
:good!:

A top 10 - 15 class would actually be acceptable this year based off of numbers taken. Of course we all want top 10 and i suppose it could happen, but this is a solid depth class. Key positions of need. If we take 18 or less it could be difficult to crack the top 10, but that does not mean the players we take are any less talented. That is the part a lot of people seem to not get. Rankings are partially based on numbers of players.

We'll be fine taking less this year. 2017 should be a good year numbers and talent wise though. Just my opinion though.
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Agreed.
 
#92
#92
LWSVOL said:
I don't see how you can make that number work..

2009 signing class was 24
2010 was 27
2011 was 27
2012 was 22
2013 was 23
2014 was 32
2015 was 30

There is no way 8 openings can be available over those seasons to back count 8 in any one year. Impossible to make the numbers work.
Click to expand...

Say we started in 2008 class was 18 (+7)
2009 24 (+1 year, +8 total)
2010 27 (-2 year, +6 total)
2011 27 (-2 year, +4 total)
2012 22 (+3 year, +7 total)
2013 22 (+3 year, +10 total)
2014 31 (-6 year, +4 total)
2015 29 (0) (32, -3 if you count the blueshirts)
 
#94
#94
TriedAndTrueVOL said:
Thank you, Larry. :hi: I don't know why it's all so difficult to accept. Maybe poster can understand a little better now that there are plenty of people here other than themselves who follow/understand recruiting and have good info.
Click to expand...

I'm sure poster understands plenty. You simply cannot blueshirt somebody who has signed a letter of intent. Once the letter is signed, the player is part of the recruiting class for the current year unless they can be backcounted.

ESPN's definition: A blueshirt is a player who arrived on campus as a "preferred" or "recruited" walk-on and goes on to earn a football scholarship.

They are promised the scholarship but they haven't received it until they arrive on campus.
 
#95
#95
This year's class will be small based on the over NCAA limit of 85. They will have 15 or so seniors graduate and will have a few go early or transfer. Whatever that number ends up being will determine the class size. Probably around 20. It should be a top 10 to top 15 class. If the number is 20, I think they'll crack the top 10.
 
#97
#97
LWSVOL said:
There were no spots to back count anyone from 2015 back to 2014 class. There was one blue shirt brought forward from 2014 to the 2015 class. They were allowed to back count 6 from 2014 class to 2013 class due to previous back counts in previous classes. That left a full class for 2014 enrollment of 25 which means zero spots to back count 2015 class.

We signed 30 players for 2015. Plus, we have to count RD Abernathy as an initial counter. Plus we have to count Swafford as an initial counter because he went on scholarship last summer. that brought number to 32 for the 2015 class. Thus, we had 7 blue shirts. Only option to get 32 enrolled for 2015 is to count 7 forward.

this is why Butch has told his staff in every meeting, 18 is the number for 2016.

I quoted the wrong post, I apologized.
Click to expand...

Why would RDA IV be an initial counter? He's a grad transfer, no?
 
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#98
#98
Kristy* said:
Say we started in 2008 class was 18 (+7)
2009 24 (+1 year, +8 total)
2010 27 (-2 year, +6 total)
2011 27 (-2 year, +4 total)
2012 22 (+3 year, +7 total)
2013 22 (+3 year, +10 total)
2014 31 (-6 year, +4 total)
2015 29 (0) (32, -3 if you count the blueshirts)
Click to expand...

its not as simple as that..

you can't carry the 7 from 2008 forward forever and then suddenly 5 years later sign a class of 32 and back count 7 kids to 2008. NCAA requires counters to be identified each year.. you can't submit these two names from 2011 go back to 2010 count and these names from 2010 go back to 2009 count and these 3 names from 2009 go back to 2008. As soon as a class hits 25 you reset to zero openings.

you are using simple math but there are other factors..
 
#99
#99
Smokey49 said:
Why would RDA IV be an initial counter? He's a grad transfer, no?
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which you have to count grad transfers is what I was told. Not 100% certain they have determined he is going on scholarship yet because of the counter issues..
 
#100
#100
Kristy* said:
I'm sure poster understands plenty. You simply cannot blueshirt somebody who has signed a letter of intent. Once the letter is signed, the player is part of the recruiting class for the current year unless they can be backcounted.

ESPN's definition: A blueshirt is a player who arrived on campus as a "preferred" or "recruited" walk-on and goes on to earn a football scholarship.

They are promised the scholarship but they haven't received it until they arrive on campus.
Click to expand...

you can sign prospects to a "financial aid agreement" and not a National Letter of Intent which allows you to talk about those players. You do not have to publicly state which recruits sign NLOI or FAAs.

Josh Malone signed a Financial Aid Agreement in November of 2013 which allowed Jones to talk about him in December of 2013 publicly. We know that because Jones talked about him then and it was explained by multiple media outlets. Josh did not sign the LOI..

We don't know which players signed which documents on signing day. It is unclear which players fit the definition of recruited and which do not, outside of Young, Perry and Bruce to the public.
 
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