Predictions for the Arkansas game?

[BallerVolFan]

If you win this one, a 3-seed is probably your floor as long as you don't drop a game against Mizzou and Georgia. Winning this on the road means all you have to do is protect home court, and then a one-seed could be in play at that point. But, that probability would be low as it would depend on what other teams do down the stretch.

I don’t think the 1 seed in the NCAAT is in play for us. I think the 2 seed line is the highest we could climb to. And the road to a 2 seed starts this Saturday. A win on the road vs Arkansas would be a massive resume win because we don’t have any wins on the road as big as Arkansas.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I don’t think the 1 seed in the NCAAT is in play for us. I think the 2 seed line is the highest we could climb to. And the road to a 2 seed starts this Saturday. A win on the road vs Arkansas would be a massive resume win because we don’t have any wins on the road as big as Arkansas.

It’s in play theoretically, but it would require running the table and some help in front of us.

 

[BallerVolFan]

It’s in play theoretically, but it would require running the table and some help in front of us.

I mean, I guess so lol these teams ahead of us would have to totally collapse

 

[calban]

I don’t think the 1 seed in the NCAAT is in play for us. I think the 2 seed line is the highest we could climb to. And the road to a 2 seed starts this Saturday. A win on the road vs Arkansas would be a massive resume win because we don’t have any wins on the road as big as Arkansas.

One last chance to beat a KP top 25 away from the home floor in regular season. Need to take the same focus and intensity to Bud Walton. I had KY in the loss column so hopefully they surprise me again.

 

[BallerVolFan]

One last chance to beat a KP top 25 away from the home floor in regular season. Need to take the same focus and intensity to Bud Walton. I had KY in the loss column so hopefully they surprise me again.

Keep Notae in check (he will get his more than likely) and get Williams in foul trouble. Their next biggest post is 6’7”... then we unleash Aidoo and Fulky to attack the glass. Also.. the one thing that will light a firecracker under Bud Walton is turnovers. That will allow them to get out and run. We don’t really want that in that kind of atmosphere.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I mean, I guess so lol these teams ahead of us would have to totally collapse

I wouldn’t call it collapsing. Now, I don’t think we run the table, it’s incredibly unlikely. But, IF we did run the table we’d have beaten Auburn at least once (maybe twice) and have the regular season and tournament crowns. You’d supplant them as a 1-seed easily.

 

[VolArmy74]

I wouldn’t call it collapsing. Now, I don’t think we run the table, it’s incredibly unlikely. But, IF we did run the table we’d have beaten Auburn at least once (maybe twice) and have the regular season and tournament crowns. You’d supplant them as a 1-seed easily.

At 27-6, with 13 wins in a row, I'd be shocked if we weren't a #1 seed if we ran the table. We'd likely have 4+ wins over projected top 2 seeds at that point, along with 0 bad losses all vs likely the #1 SOS in CBB.

 

[BallerVolFan]

I wouldn’t call it collapsing. Now, I don’t think we run the table, it’s incredibly unlikely. But, IF we did run the table we’d have beaten Auburn at least once (maybe twice) and have the regular season and tournament crowns. You’d supplant them as a 1-seed easily.

By no means am I saying it’s impossible either. Even if we did win out and win the SECT, other teams would still have to lose games for us to sniff a 1 seed. They’re not just gonna automatically jump us ahead of Kansas, Purdue, Baylor etc. if they continue to win games. Regardless, it’s more of just a discussion point for us fans to talk about because it’s very very unlikely. Just wanna see this team get better and better and not flame out when it matters the most.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

By no means am I saying it’s impossible either. Even if we did win out and win the SECT, other teams would still have to lose games for us to sniff a 1 seed. They’re not just gonna automatically jump us ahead of Kansas, Purdue, Baylor etc. if they continue to win games. Regardless, it’s more of just a discussion point for us fans to talk about because it’s very very unlikely. Just wanna see this team get better and better and not flame out when it matters the most.

I, personally, disagree. I understand the reasoning, but Baylor we would easily jump if we run the table. Particularly with their injury concerns and with the fact they probably aren't winning the Big 12. The SEC is strong this year. I would be shocked if the SEC doesn't have a 1-seed, but the Big 12 has potentially two.

Kentucky is also ahead of us, and if we run the table we jump both them and Auburn.

Again, I don't think Tennessee runs the table. We very likely might lose this weekend. But, IF we do run the table we're probably a 1-seed. As @VolArmy74 said a few posts above, that resume would be one of the strongest in the country.

 

[BallerVolFan]

I, personally, disagree. I understand the reasoning, but Baylor we would easily jump if we run the table. Particularly with their injury concerns and with the fact they probably aren't winning the Big 12. The SEC is strong this year. I would be shocked if the SEC doesn't have a 1-seed, but the Big 12 has potentially two.

Kentucky is also ahead of us, and if we run the table we jump both them and Auburn.

Again, I don't think Tennessee runs the table. We very likely might lose this weekend. But, IF we do run the table we're probably a 1-seed. As @VolArmy74 said a few posts above, that resume would be one of the strongest in the country.

I’m pretty sure we actually agree on everything other than which teams we’d be able to jump. Do you think the committee would jump us above a 26-5 Kansas, a 25-6 Kentucky, a 27-4 Duke, or a 24-6 Villanova that won 8 straight games to win the Big East? (Who also beat us head to head)... that includes Kansas losing one more game to Baylor, Kentucky losing vs Arkansas, and Duke/Nova winning out.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I’m pretty sure we actually agree on everything other than which teams we’d be able to jump. Do you think the committee would jump us above a 26-5 Kansas, a 25-6 Kentucky, a 27-4 Duke, or a 24-6 Villanova that won 8 straight games to win the Big East? (Who also beat us head to head)... that includes Kansas losing one more game to Baylor, Kentucky losing vs Arkansas, and Duke/Nova winning out.

"Do you think the committee would jump us above...."

25-6 Kentucky --> In this scenario, yes. If you run the table, Tennessee is SEC Regular Season Champions, Tournament Champions, at the worst split the series with Kentucky (maybe win 2-1 depending on SECT), there is no justification for them to be above you at that point.
27-4 Duke --> Yes. The ACC is awful. We have far more opportunities down the stretch for more Q1 wins. We'd probably end up with a better NET and better KenPom if we run the table, too. But, it would depend on the scores of our games.
24-6 Villanova --> Maybe. The Big East is not as strong as it was once perceived to start the year. They do have the head-to-head against us, and their metrics would probably be very close to ours, so this might be the one that would stick ahead of us, but it just depends.
26-5 Kansas --> Maybe. But, you might not have to jump them. I think we'd jump Purdue, so if that's the case you don't have to jump Kansas to get a 1-seed.

Again, this is all probably moot because we almost certainly won't run the table, but I just don't see a situation where we aren't a one-seed if we do.

 

[BallerVolFan]

"Do you think the committee would jump us above...."

25-6 Kentucky --> In this scenario, yes. If you run the table, Tennessee is SEC Regular Season Champions, Tournament Champions, at the worst split the series with Kentucky (maybe win 2-1 depending on SECT), there is no justification for them to be above you at that point.
27-4 Duke --> Yes. The ACC is awful. We have far more opportunities down the stretch for more Q1 wins. We'd probably end up with a better NET and better KenPom if we run the table, too. But, it would depend on the scores of our games.
24-6 Villanova --> Maybe. The Big East is not as strong as it was once perceived to start the year. They do have the head-to-head against us, and their metrics would probably be very close to ours, so this might be the one that would stick ahead of us, but it just depends.
26-5 Kansas --> Maybe. But, you might not have to jump them. I think we'd jump Purdue, so if that's the case you don't have to jump Kansas to get a 1-seed.

Again, this is all probably moot because we almost certainly won't run the table, but I just don't see a situation where we aren't a one-seed if we do.

Okay but then there’s the fact that the committee doesn’t put a lot of weight on the SECT final since it ends a few hours before the bracket is released. So you can never really tell which metric and what games they put more weight into to determine who jumps who. I agree somewhat but you’d be splitting hairs if it came down to that scenario.

 

[Namorto1]

If we put Vescovi on Notae we won't shut him down but we'll take away a lot of his points. Vescovi is a near lock-down defender these days. With Aidoo, Fulky, and Uros in the paint, I don't see them getting a lot done there either. Remember we are the 4th best defense in the country and their offense is rated 67th by Ken Pom. On the other side of the coin, our offensive rating is 27th and their defense is 18th. I like our chances a lot!

In particular Aidoo. Arkansas likes to go to the rim. Aidoo may get a few blocks and change a handful more against the Hogs, if he gets the minutes. Expect we will play a lot of small ball and match up fairly well with them, but beating them on the road may be a 50/50 proposition. Especially given they have won 10 of there last 11 and that one loss was at Bama by only one point.

 

[gohogs14]

Been watching some of Arkansas’ most recent games. They tend to shoot a little better on the road and their big guy (Williams) is becoming a very consistent piece for them. But when he is out of the game, which isn’t very often, their size in the post is insanely small. The next tallest guy is 6’7”. We need to attack the rim and work the offensive glass and try to get him in foul trouble. If he’s out, we will have a big size advantage in the post. I believe this game will be more of a drive and kick type of game. Can’t afford to sit on the perimeter and hope to win off the 3-ball. The more I watch of them the better I feel because if they get in foul trouble, things start to change in a hurry.

Should have added this to my post earlier because it's a really good point - I feel like Tennessee has more post depth than Arkansas does. Williams has quietly been one of the best big men in the SEC this year but Arkansas just doesn't have much outside of him down low so if he gets in foul trouble then rebounding/defense will really suffer.

Should be fun to watch if Zeigler ever gets matched up with 5'7 Chris Lykes for us lol.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Should have added this to my post earlier because it's a really good point - I feel like Tennessee has more post depth than Arkansas does. Williams has quietly been one of the best big men in the SEC this year but Arkansas just doesn't have much outside of him down low so if he gets in foul trouble then rebounding/defense will really suffer.

Should be fun to watch if Zeigler ever gets matched up with 5'7 Chris Lykes for us lol.

I appreciate your insight. You, at least, are one of the more level-headed, insightful rival posters I've seen lately. Too many Kentucky knuckleheads that come around here and spew nonsense. It should be a good game tomorrow. We haven't won in Bud Walton since 2009, so I expect us to be humbled a bit and take the L, but either way it should be a great game.

 

[realmenwearorange]

I believe it may be the toughest environment they play in all year. They will have to weather a storm early. I believe Arkansas will get the edge and the win in a close game. I believe Tennessee will be a bit flat after the big win over Kentucky. The home crowd combined with the typical home cooking that occurs in all SEC arena will be the difference. Tennessee will return the favor when Arkansas comes to Knoxville.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Great read from Will, quick takeaways from me: find Notae in transition, stop the ball and force them into half court sets, they struggle mightily there. Offensively, have to take care of the ball, hit our open shots from 3, Chandler needs to drive the lanes.

 

[JRVOL11]

if they can slow down notae kind of like they did against miss. st, they have a real good chance. also don’t let jaylin williams just kill us in the post.

 

[NEO]

Definitely going to be a bad beat. Too jacked after last night. Plus, we a very poor 3-ball shooting team on the road games.

That should be our last loss before we go on to win the SEC Tournament and NCAA Championship.

Wait? You don’t believe we can beat Arkansas buy you do believe we win the both the SEC tournament and NCAA tournament against the best teams in the nation


That’s some unusual logic.

 

[VolArmy74]

Wait? You don’t believe we can beat Arkansas buy you do believe we win the both the SEC tournament and NCAA tournament against the best teams in the nation


That’s some unusual logic.

That's just how tough life is in true road games vs good teams. Alabama lost there last year by 15, then ran off 8 in a row, winning the SECT and two games in the NCAA T before losing in OT in the S16 to a red hot UCLA Final 4 team.

 

[cncchris33]

KenPom just installed Tennessee as a 1-pt favorite. Now is the chance for all the doubters to go cash in on easy money, right?

 

[NEO]

That's just how tough life is in true road games vs good teams. Alabama lost there last year by 15, then ran off 8 in a row, winning the SECT and two games in the NCAA T before losing in OT in the S16 to a red hot UCLA Final 4 team.

All tourney games are road games. They won the sec tourney and got bounced in the 16. The tourney is tough. I just found the comment funny. That’s all.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

KenPom just installed Tennessee as a 1-pt favorite. Now is the chance for all the doubters to go cash in on easy money, right?

Which set of doubters? I am losing track.

 

[TNBV]

"Do you think the committee would jump us above...."

25-6 Kentucky --> In this scenario, yes. If you run the table, Tennessee is SEC Regular Season Champions, Tournament Champions, at the worst split the series with Kentucky (maybe win 2-1 depending on SECT), there is no justification for them to be above you at that point.
27-4 Duke --> Yes. The ACC is awful. We have far more opportunities down the stretch for more Q1 wins. We'd probably end up with a better NET and better KenPom if we run the table, too. But, it would depend on the scores of our games.
24-6 Villanova --> Maybe. The Big East is not as strong as it was once perceived to start the year. They do have the head-to-head against us, and their metrics would probably be very close to ours, so this might be the one that would stick ahead of us, but it just depends.
26-5 Kansas --> Maybe. But, you might not have to jump them. I think we'd jump Purdue, so if that's the case you don't have to jump Kansas to get a 1-seed.

Again, this is all probably moot because we almost certainly won't run the table, but I just don't see a situation where we aren't a one-seed if we do.

More unrealistic than us running the table is us running the table and every team on this list doing the same. We run the regular season out with 5 more wins and we are at least a high 3 seed, but likely a 2 seed as most likely someone else stumbles a little. If we then run the table in the SEC, that means Kentucky and Auburn would have another loss (plus we would have just beaten Auburn). I agree that in the UNLIKELY scenario we run the table we would have a decent, 50/50 shot at a 1 seed.

 

[Volfan1000]

I imagine this game is a sellout.

I think a trio of Bailey, Chandler and eigler guard Aluma while Mashack and Vescovi and James take turns guarding Notae tomorrow afternoon.