Rankings Pre-post season

#3
#3
Ok @fryeguy93 …this is what I love talking about…which one do you think the selection committee goes by the closest….if Vols are anywhere near 1 and assuming teams like Wake don’t really hurt themselves further there would be no way we would face each other prior to Omaha…also looks like MsSt could be the only Sec team we could face as well…of course this is not factoring in upsets etc from 2-3 seeds…Nc State looks like a strong probability super regionals…Texas is nowhere to be seen in the RPI, East Carolina is pretty low in the KPI and so on…
 
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#4
#4
I know the RPI and KPI are not the deciding factor but these charts show something potentially significant to the College World Series.

Every season, it's been almost impossible for SEC teams to match up in Super Regional play. With so many SEC teams being set up as national seeds (1-8) and few teams in the 9-16 range. It's not implausible that there could be a record number of SEC teams making it to Omaha. Mississippi State may be the sticking point.

Using and last week's projections lets see who would match to who.

I think Kentucky keeps the #1 seed because no one is taking a close look at their Q1 wins and how the top half of those Q1 were at home.

Miss State's RPI plummeted 6 spots with their home loss to Mizzou. D1 predicted them as a #14 seed host last week. I think that's out the window

1......Kentucky.................16.....San Diego
2......Tennessee...............15.....Louisiana
3......Texas A&M.............14.....UC Santa Barbara
4......Arkansas..................13.....Virginia
5......North Carolina......12.....East Carolina
6......Clemson..................11.....Indiana State
7......Oklahoma...............10.....Florida State
8......Oregon State.........9.......Georgia

In fact, No SEC Teams nor ACC would match up in against each other in Supers. Georgia and Oregon State are interchangeable. Their series loss at home this weekend was tought to recover from. UGA could be anywhere from 8-12 which would still keep them from matching up against an SEC foe in Supers. Unless an SEC #2 seed beats a national seed.

As per the other SEC teams getting bids. I don't think 10 teams will get bids.


My landing spots for the other SEC teams?

Mississippi State at Louisiana seems obvious
South Carolina at East Carolina equally so
Vanderbilt at Virginia or Florida State
Alabama or LSU at North Carolina or Clemson (LSU will need to steal Alabama's place)
 
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#5
#5
volplaya8 said:
Ok @fryeguy93 …this is what I love talking about…which one do you think the selection committee goes by the closest….if Vols are anywhere near 1 and assuming teams like Wake don’t really hurt themselves further there would be no way we would face each other prior to Omaha…also looks like MsSt could be the only Sec team we could face as well…of course this is not factoring in upsets etc from 2-3 seeds…Nc State looks like a strong probability super regionals…Texas is nowhere to be seen in the RPI, East Carolina is pretty low in the KPI and so on…
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It's funny you mentioned Mississippi State. I was working on my next post when you posted this. I actually picked Mississippi State to go on road to Louisiana. They could win that region and would likely play an SEC team in Supers.

I don't think Mississippi State has the resume or RPI to be a host, but they would be a #2 seed in a local regional with a low seed. Louisiana fits that bill.

Texas's KPI is high at 19 but not high enough to be host. We would all be stunned if they don't go the College Station.

For SEC teams to play in Supers, I think a #2 seed SEC team would need to beat a host.
 
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#6
#6
fryeguy93 said:
It's funny you mentioned Mississippi State. I was working on my next post when you posted this. I actually picked Mississippi State to go on road to Louisiana. They could win that region and would likely play an SEC team in Supers.

I don't think Mississippi State has the resume or RPI to be a host, but they would be a #2 seed in a local regional with a low seed. Louisiana fits that bill.

Texas's KPI is high at 19 but not high enough to be host. We would all be stunned if they don't go the College Station.

For SEC teams to play in Supers, I think a #2 seed SEC team would need to beat a host.
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Does this mean you have Wake slotted at 15 even though they are inside the top 11 in both RPI and KPI or NC State and one of them doesn’t get to host at all? Also where are you getting Louisiana from? They aren’t on that list…I know they are the top team in their conference but they are nowhere to be seen in RPI/KPI…

When it comes to Florida/Vandy…does a Florida win there hurt Vandy at all or are they getting in regardless…surely Florida beating Vandy and beating us or another team along the way gets them in…2-2 in Hoover and I think they are in..their RPI/KPI numbers are strong, they have star power to watch in Cags, and they have a good baseball history…that is too much going for them for the Ncaa to say no imo

Opening game of Sec tournament is LSU playing to keep their season alive vs UGA trying to be a national seed…that is quite a way to open things!
 
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#7
#7
Wake Forest is 15-15 and 8th in the ACC
The committee is not letting that resume host a regional

Similar issues with Florida making the tourney at all at 28-26 and 13-17.

Their RPIs are high but don't tell the story.

Wake had ONE good weekend - last weekend against Clemson, where they pulled it all together. Then they promptly laid an egg in Raleigh.

I don't feel good about Vanderbilt or Florida making the tourney. Especially if Vanderbilt goes 1-and-'cue on Tuesday. Florida has a higher RPI than VU (24 to 27) because of UF's Non-conference SOS is 23 compared to 170 for Vandy. However, Florida didn't win many of those games. UF was only 19-13 at home. If Florida makes the semis they will likely get in. But I don't think they should.

Without looking, Florida is #24 in the RPI; How low do you have to get on the RPI list before you find another team with 28 or fewer wins?
How much further to get to another team?

Florida is below .500 against Q1 (13-17) and Q2 (2-6) teams and .500 (2-2) against Q3. Gators are only above .500 because they are 11-1 against Q4. This shouldn't even be close

UGA has to be 2-1 to be a national seed.
 
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#9
#9
Only way Wake is going to host at this point is if they win the ACCT. A win over Pitt will do nothing for them, but wins over UNC, Virginia/FSU, and Clemson/NC State would boost them right back up. I just don’t think they have the horses to go win 4 games though. They will be a 2 seed at best imo. If they go 0-2 in their pool play with a loss to Pitt then they risk dropping to a 3 seed. Probably get in as a 2 though.
 
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#11
#11
fryeguy93 said:
I know the RPI and KPI are not the deciding factor but these charts show something potentially significant to the College World Series.

Every season, it's been almost impossible for SEC teams to match up in Super Regional play. With so many SEC teams being set up as national seeds (1-8) and few teams in the 9-16 range. It's not implausible that there could be a record number of SEC teams making it to Omaha. Mississippi State may be the sticking point.

Using and last week's projections lets see who would match to who.

I think Kentucky keeps the #1 seed because no one is taking a close look at their Q1 wins and how the top half of those Q1 were at home.

Miss State's RPI plummeted 6 spots with their home loss to Mizzou. D1 predicted them as a #14 seed host last week. I think that's out the window

1......Kentucky.................16.....San Diego
2......Tennessee...............15.....Louisiana
3......Texas A&M.............14.....UC Santa Barbara
4......Arkansas..................13.....Virginia
5......North Carolina......12.....East Carolina
6......Clemson..................11.....Indiana State
7......Oklahoma...............10.....Florida State
8......Oregon State.........9.......Georgia

In fact, No SEC Teams nor ACC would match up in against each other in Supers. Georgia and Oregon State are interchangeable. Their series loss at home this weekend was tought to recover from. UGA could be anywhere from 8-12 which would still keep them from matching up against an SEC foe in Supers. Unless an SEC #2 seed beats a national seed.

As per the other SEC teams getting bids. I don't think 10 teams will get bids.


My landing spots for the other SEC teams?

Mississippi State at Louisiana seems obvious
South Carolina at East Carolina equally so
Vanderbilt at Virginia or Florida State
Alabama or LSU at North Carolina or Clemson (LSU will need to steal Alabama's place)
Click to expand...
If I was on the selection committee... there would be one (8 seed vs 9 seed maybe) bracket with all non-power 5 teams to guarantee one gets to Omaha. Also would try and not put seeded conference teams against each other in the SR...
 
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#12
#12
Feels like Florida and Vanderbilt are playing for a spot in the tournament. LSU is out at the moment as they have already lost all the tiebreakers and slotted as the 11th seed in the SECT. Florida should be out but them and Vanderbilt are essentially neck and neck in the metrics. I really don’t see a path for all five 13-17 teams making the tournament and I don’t see them selecting more than 3 of them. Alabama is safe as they have the trump card of being the only team in the country to win a series vs Tennessee and Arkansas. South Carolina is safe as they swept Vanderbilt and won the series vs Florida. It’s going to come down to head to head whenever they are sorting these teams out. It really seems like this Vanderbilt/Florida game is a de facto play in game.
 
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#13
#13
VolPack22 said:
Feels like Florida and Vanderbilt are playing for a spot in the tournament. LSU is out at the moment as they have already lost all the tiebreakers and slotted as the 11th seed in the SECT. Florida should be out but them and Vanderbilt are essentially neck and neck in the metrics. I really don’t see a path for all five 13-17 teams making the tournament and I don’t see them selecting more than 3 of them. Alabama is safe as they have the trump card of being the only team in the country to win a series vs Tennessee and Arkansas. South Carolina is safe as they swept Vanderbilt and won the series vs Florida. It’s going to come down to head to head whenever they are sorting these teams out. It really seems like this Vanderbilt/Florida game is a de facto play in game.
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I don't think a 13-17 belongs in the field at all.
 
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#17
#17
As of right now I’m not sure any of those teams is fully out or fully in. Lsu is 10-5 in the last half of the Sec schedule…everybody knows they actually belong…whether they get there or not remains to be seen. If they beat UGA then I bet they win at least one more against another top team in Hoover…would be hard to keep them out. Probably cheering for Vandy to beat Florida tomorrow as they feel similar to LSU in some ways in making a Hoover push.

I think Bama might be the worst of those 5 teams as well if we were all just ranking teams by who we think is better. They may actually sit in a better spot than the other 4 though. LSU and Carolina having to play the Mighty Vols on the road really hurt them…dont you love being that team!!! I would probably rank those 5 like this if all things were equal..

1.LSU
2.Vandy
3a.Florida
3b.Carolina
5.Bama
 
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#21
#21
wtmvol said:
Just curious... because they're ranked too high to justify being put in our regional as a 2 seed?
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I would say so…be a tough pill to swallow if you are an overall top 3 seed. We should not be playing any team inside the top 25 in regionals. We have earned that on the field.
 
#22
#22
volplaya8 said:
As of right now I’m not sure any of those teams is fully out or fully in. Lsu is 10-5 in the last half of the Sec schedule…everybody knows they actually belong…whether they get there or not remains to be seen. If they beat UGA then I bet they win at least one more against another top team in Hoover…would be hard to keep them out. Probably cheering for Vandy to beat Florida tomorrow as they feel similar to LSU in some ways in making a Hoover push.

I think Bama might be the worst of those 5 teams as well if we were all just ranking teams by who we think is better. They may actually sit in a better spot than the other 4 though. LSU and Carolina having to play the Mighty Vols on the road really hurt them…dont you love being that team!!! I would probably rank those 5 like this if all things were equal..

1.LSU
2.Vandy
3a.Florida
3b.Carolina
5.Bama
Click to expand...
I just don’t see how you can slot LSU above those teams whenever they lost head to head to Alabama, Vanderbilt at home, and Florida at home. They literally lose every single tiebreaker 😂
 
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#23
#23
VolPack22 said:
I just don’t see how you can slot LSU above those teams whenever they lost head to head to Alabama, Vanderbilt at home, and Florida at home. They literally lose every single tiebreaker 😂
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I am ranking them by how good they actually are…not by metrics. 10-5 down the stretch proves they are the better team and they know how to win when it really matters. If they dug themselves too big of a hole then so be it. When answering honestly you know they are the most dangerous team and most capable of a run amongst those 5.
 
#24
#24
wtmvol said:
Just curious... because they're ranked too high to justify being put in our regional as a 2 seed?
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Yeah they will probably slot as one of the higher ranked 2 seeds so they would be in a regional more in line with the bottom 4 regionals as opposed to one of the top 4 regionals. They aren’t going to give the overall 1 or 2 seed one of the best 2 seeds.
 
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#25
#25
If y'all got to hand-pick 1 team to not make it to the NCAA tournament from this group, who would you pick? I can't decide between the first 2.

LSU
Vandy
Florida
South Carolina
Alabama
 
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