Recruiting Football Talk VII

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#92,776
#92,776
The interesting thing to me about Deboer is whether his record is fool's gold or not.

Analysts likes Phil Steele have poured over hundreds of coaches over the years and believe one thing is true (over enough time) - variances even out (such as winning a lot of close games - those will tend to reverse in future years and regress to the mean eventually).

In Deboer's 2 seasons, he had to win 60% of his games by single digits. 45% in Y1 and 71% last year. Aka a lot of games that really could have gone either way.

For comparison - Heupel has only had to win 15% of his games by single digits. Meaning, there really weren't many "lucky" wins over 3 years.

Since 2020, Saban's rate is only 18%.

This is something the very best coaches do - they dominate and don't rely on luck over the long-run...because they can't. No one can given enough games.

Alabama fans are in for a lot of heart attack games and more losses over the long haul.
 
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#92,780
#92,780
screenthis said:
I grew up in East Tennessee. Beautiful area. The 'tri-cities' are great but just a little too small and disconnected for me. I honestly preferred Tampa for day to day life.
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You must be a city boy...lol..I love Tri-Cities and I couldn't give a crap about being too connected...the fact I love T-Bay so much is actually a quandary to me....I hated Atlanta, I hated D-FW, I hated Charlotte....however I do love Pheonix and San Antonio..and I like Cincinnati ok.

I've always preferred living in, or close to mid-sized towns like Tri-Cities, Knoxville and Chattanooga, and Amarillo or Midland-Odessa Texas.

But I think it's because T-Bay has so many distinct communties...like a whole bunch of smaller towns that just abut each other.
 
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#92,781
#92,781
Devo182 said:
The interesting thing to me about Deboer is whether his record is fool's gold or not.

Analysts likes Phil Steele have poured over hundreds of coaches over the years and believe one thing is true (over enough time) - variances even out (such as winning a oot of close games - those will tend to reverse in future years and regress to the mean).

In Deboer's 2 seasons, he had to win 60% of his games by single digits. 45% in Y1 and 71% last year. Aka a lot of games that really coule have gone either way.

For comparison - Heupel has only had to win 15% of his games by single digits. Meaning, there really weren't many "lucky" wins over 3 years.

Since 2020, Saban's rate is only 25%.

This is something the very best coaches do - they dominate and don't have luck over the long-run.

Alabama fans are in for a lot of heart attack games and more losses over the long haul.
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KD is a great coach on record, but look at his resume. Aside from Sioux Falls, which he last coached in 2009, he was at Fresno for 2 years and Washington for 2 years. None of that is long enough to prove whether he’s a sustainable, long term winning head coach. If I were a Bama fan, I would be highly skeptical of this hire. Not overly enthusiastic or utterly pissed, just very skeptical. Personally, I don’t think he has success outside of year 1 and maybe year 2, but 3+, I think he struggles.
 
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#92,782
#92,782
Devo182 said:
The interesting thing to me about Deboer is whether his record is fool's gold or not.

Analysts likes Phil Steele have poured over hundreds of coaches over the years and believe one thing is true (over enough time) - variances even out (such as winning a lot of close games - those will tend to reverse in future years and regress to the mean eventually).

In Deboer's 2 seasons, he had to win 60% of his games by single digits. 45% in Y1 and 71% last year. Aka a lot of games that really could have gone either way.

For comparison - Heupel has only had to win 15% of his games by single digits. Meaning, there really weren't many "lucky" wins over 3 years.

Since 2020, Saban's rate is only 18%.

This is something the very best coaches do - they dominate and don't have luck over the long-run.

Alabama fans are in for a lot of heart attack games and more losses over the long haul.
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I find it funny that Bama fans are touting his career W/L record when the bulk of it is NAIA.

Granted, he dominated NAIA for five seasons. But...it's NAIA. They would be laughing at any fanbase that tried to use an NAIA record to hype up their coach pre-Saban retirement.
 
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#92,783
#92,783
BigSteve09 said:
View attachment 611136

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You Gonna Cry Saturday Night Live GIF - You Gonna Cry Saturday Night Live Cry Baby - Discover & Share GIFs
 
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#92,787
#92,787
Aesius said:
I find it funny that Bama fans are touting his career W/L record when the bulk of it is NAIA.

Granted, he dominated NAIA for five seasons. But...it's NAIA. They would be laughing at any fanbase that tried to use an NAIA record to hype up their coach pre-Saban retirement.
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I'm a little surprised that DeBoer passed the "test" of being deemed worthy enough for their fanbase. In fact, I very seriously doubt he passes that test if he didn't make the playoff this year.

An interesting question for their AD would be "before this most recent season, was DeBoer on your radar as a potential replacement for Saban in the event he retired?" You likely wouldn't get a straight answer to the question, but I find it hard to believe that he was. I'm sure he shot up their coaching hot board very quickly, as opposed to a number of other guys who had been on there for a while.

I don't think DeBoer is a bad coach - in fact, to the contrary, I think he's a good coach. I honestly don't know if he's the best, or even a good, guy for this job though. It seemed like Lanning or Sark would be a much better fit, but I guess neither of them were interested. Good for them.
 
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#92,789
#92,789
BearCat204 said:
**** em, I didnt hear their cries when they raided rosters for the past 15 years.
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Listening to Paul to hear the delicious Bama tears.

Paul pushed back in a couple Bama callers by highlighting this exact hypocrisy. The Bama callers had no response but a gasp at the audacity to point that out and then crickets. They realize the chickens are coming home to roost.
 
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#92,792
#92,792
Ulysees E. McGill said:
You must be a city boy...lol..I love Tri-Cities and I couldn't give a crap about being too connected...the fact I love T-Bay so much is actually a quandary to me....I hated Atlanta, I hated D-FW, I hated Charlotte....however I do love Pheonix and San Antonio..and I like Cincinnati ok.

I've always preferred living in, or close to mid-sized towns like Tri-Cities, Knoxville and Chattanooga, and Amarillo or Midland-Odessa Texas.

But I think it's because T-Bay has so many distinct communties...like a whole bunch of smaller towns that just abut each other.
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Yes, I knew you were familiar with both areas. My brother and I couldn't wait to get out of the tri-cities growing up. We thought it was too small. Now? I am much more favorable to the area (guess it's a young person thing). Now, I do tend to prefer an area with a lot going on but hey, I may end up in Wenatchee Washington so what do I know.
 
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#92,795
#92,795
05_never_again said:
I'm a little surprised that DeBoer passed the "test" of being deemed worthy enough for their fanbase. In fact, I very seriously doubt he passes that test if he didn't make the playoff this year.

An interesting question for their AD would be "before this most recent season, was DeBoer on your radar as a potential replacement for Saban in the event he retired?" You likely wouldn't get a straight answer to the question, but I find it hard to believe that he was. I'm sure he shot up their coaching hot board very quickly, as opposed to a number of other guys who had been on there for a while.

I don't think DeBoer is a bad coach - in fact, to the contrary, I think he's a good coach. I honestly don't know if he's the best, or even a good, guy for this job though. It seemed like Lanning or Sark would be a much better fit, but I guess neither of them were interested. Good for them.
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When your head coaching record is 104-12, you must have some chops. He may not have been on the top of the list but who, on the list, has a better record? I think that record alone, made him a candidate. Keep in mind, if you believe what's been reported, he was probably their third choice.
 
#92,796
#92,796
Batman1948 said:
When your head coaching record is 104-12, you must have some chops. He may not have been on the top of the list but who, on the list, has a better record? I think that record alone, made him a candidate. Keep in mind, if you believe what's been reported, he was probably their third choice.
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104 wins is impressive, but let’s remember that 67 of those are NAIA wins that last occurred almost 20 years ago. Not taking away from the success, but that 104 is very misleading.
 
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#92,799
#92,799
Batman1948 said:
When your head coaching record is 104-12, you must have some chops. He may not have been on the top of the list but who, on the list, has a better record? I think that record alone, made him a candidate. Keep in mind, if you believe what's been reported, he was probably their third choice.
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😂😂😂😂 you really going to spout that record bama fans have been bragging about on twitter when most of it came during his time in NAIA league. Come on man!
 
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