mrmax86
Fight. Strain. Compete.
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Yes this is the right logic path.You have fewer options with the traditional route.
If you fail the 2 pt conversion after the 2nd TD, you've lost. Game over.
If you go with this strategy and fail the 2 pt attempt, then you have a 2nd attempt as well to go to OT.
You have to accomplish all the same things in either case, so better to have that information now rather than later and have more opportunities.
Here is the flowchart I've had for some years that makes it make sense:
View attachment 585111
And the EV of going for 2 down 8...becomes a clear GO through the late game stages
View attachment 585112
This assumes 100% chance of making any XPs (which is fine for rounding).
If you kick 2 XPs you play for OT, which you can assume you have a 50% chance of winning. This way (per your numbers) is 62.5%.
Even better if your offense individually is more capable of converting 2PTs than the average, or if your kicker is maybe not having the best day.
Edit: Also, there’s a sliver of a chance that you have time for an onside kick to go for a FG If you miss both 2PTs. Or maybe there could be time for a FG drive without an onside kick too.
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