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The Vols are were busy over the weekend, presoaking and scrubbing their uniforms to get the blood stains of poor little Kent State out of our beautiful Orange britches. Having that tremendous feat accomplished, it is on to the armpit of America to do battle with the Sooner or Laters of Oklahoma University. It has been a few year since we made this journey westward, but the last time we went we were led by incompetence and though our boys battelled they were ultimately defeated. Things are a little different this time around. We have a top notch coaching staff that knows what they are about, and we have a roster full of talent that we have not had in quite awhile. Also, this is not Bob Stoops' Oklahoma that we go to face, but the new look Brent Vegetables OU and they have not been the dominant team that they have been in years past. The Vols enter this week as road favorites by 7.5, so when you add in the ~ TD that teams like OU get for the home field factor and this is one that the Vols appear to be heavily favored by the folks in Vegas to win and win handily. So what do we need to do to ensure our betting brethren can pay their mortgages and provide food for their families?
1. OU Defense vs Vols Offense
Brent Vegetables is known to be as much of a defensive savant as Heup is as the offensive counterpart. He usually fields a solid defense that is sound and plays fast fundamental defensive football. They have 11 sacks on the year but their level of competition has not been much better than what we have faced. Over half their sacks came against the powerhouse Temple Owls (6), while Houston and Tulane both only allowed the Sooners to get home to the QB 2 and 3 times respectively. They are only allowing 11.3 pts, 77 rushing yards, and 167 passing yards per game, but again...competition has been meh. By comparison, against equally meh competition, the Vols offense has been scoring 63.7 pts, 336 rushing yards, and 299 passing yards per game. Something will have to give. The Vols have play makers all over the field on offense and will force OU to pick their poison. If they do what others have done this year and choose death by a thousand cuts, then the Vols will run the ball, use the WR screens, and let the TE's eat in the middle of the field while Nico uses his accuracy to eat them alive. If they come up and try to stop the short stuff, Nico and the WR's have shown they can hit the deep stuff down the sidelines and across the middle. The key will be our OL keeping their DL out of our backfield giving Nico a clean pocked and opening holes for DSamp and the RB's to run. If they do that and Nico makes good decisions, which he has shown he tends to do, I don't think the OU D will be able to hold us below 30 points over the course of this game. I think the Vols will get to 35 on the offensive side of the ball just by forcing OU to choose how they want to play us and then hitting them in another way.
2. Vols Defense vs OU Offense
While the OU defense has been shutting down their lesser opponents, their offense has been less than impressive. They have scored 33 pts per game, but have done so with only 159 rushing yards and 152 passing yards per game. Their DL has produced 11 sacks, but their OL has allowed 9 and they are riddled with injuries and inexperience. When it comes to their rushing attack, their QB Jackson Arnold is their leading rusher with 159 yards for the season and 2 TD's. They are only averaging 4.3 YPC and have only scored 4 rushing TDs against the afore mentioned meh competition. When it comes to their receiving corps, they are probably less talented that NC State. They have Deion Burks.... and then not much else. They have talent, but Jackson Arnold is not getting them the ball.
Meanwhile, the Vols defense allowing less than 3 points, 55 rushing yards, and 98 passing yards per game. That is certainly against inferior opponents, but is still very impressive that they have been so dominant when our 2-4 stringers have gotten a big chunk of playing time in those games along with the starters still being very fresh. We have only recorded 4 sacks this year, but our opponents have not really been on the field offensively all that much and when they have tried to pass it has been 2 step drop short screen stuff to neutralize our pass rushers. Our guys are hungry to show what they can do against a better quality opponent and they will get their chance against OU this weekend. I think that our pass rush and stout run defense will more than stifle the meaty okra offensive performance that the Sooners will be able to put together and our defense will further establish that they are not the Vols defenses of the previous 15 years. They are becoming the elite defenses that Heup mentioned in his PC a couple weeks ago.
3. First True Road Game
The Sooner fans will be showing up this weekend, and we should have no doubt that they will do their best to affect our guys, Nico in particular. Being a freshman and getting his first big road start in a raucous environment like Norman, OK will be a tough test. If Nico is up to it and can be the calm confident leader he has shown himself to be so far, I think that we can quiet the road crowd and remove the one true advantage that I see for OU in this game. Along with that, if our Defense can stifle their offense into a steady diet of 3 and outs putting the Vols high powered offense back on the field and forcing their D to stop us time and time again then the crowd will be making their way for the exits shortly after halftime. If their crowd gets in Nico's head and starts impacting the game for OU, they will just get louder and could be a factor in how this game goes.
4. Final Thought
All in all, I think that this game matches up well for us. Their defense is good, but they have not had to face down what our offense brings to the table and with our run game and Nico dropping dimes I think we win that side of the ball. Their offense has not shown me much to be worried about so far against the comp they have faced. Our defense is rested and hungry to show that they are good and not just because we haven't really played anybody with a terribly good offense yet. They will be looking to harass Arnold early and often. If our DL can rattle him and force him into some early bad decision making this game could be over before it really gets going. I think they put up a fight, but I think this Vols team is focused and is going to handle their business in Norman.
Score Prediction:
Vols - 42 (Including a defensive score)
Laters - 20 (Including a late score to make it look more respectable than it actually will be)
