Recruiting Football Talk VIII

#51,178
#51,178
Visidog said:
I don’t think there’s an anti-UT deep state. (Look who had the most penalties called against opponents in 2022). And I also think that what’s frustrating to fans is not the total number of fouls but rather the flags that weren’t thrown at some critical or noticeable moment. But it’s interesting to see that many ranked teams have fewer penalties called against their opponents on average.

A real analysis would have to control for total plays and compare against expected rates for all three phases of play. I don’t have that data.
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I'd looove to see a breakdown of total flags against opponents broken down by home and away. I bet it's a huge gap.
 
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#51,179
#51,179
rikberry31 said:
I can appreciate that. My wife is one of biggest Tennessee fans I know and she never played a down either. She's not big on x"s and o's but she knows a good bit about the game in general. Last weekend during the game she yells out "That's holding!", which it was, followed by "If I noticed it you know it's real bad, these refs really suck!"
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Ive followed recruiting closely since being a member on Gridscape. Posted on VQ; and Scout, then here. Used to do the VQ bbq's, lol met Josh McNeil'a folks and David Crompton, as well as Kevin Simon's Dad, who was a regular poster back in day '@therealviper'. Think Larry @LWSVOL used to attend those.

Anyway, it doesnt take a rocket surgeon to see that Glenn had suffered several recruiting losses in those first few seasons. Even this year, as good as class is. Could really use another G and T depth.

With increase against the 85 number, what are we doing?
 
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#51,181
#51,181
jave36 said:
I'd looove to see a breakdown of total flags against opponents broken down by home and away. I bet it's a huge gap.
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The data is at the link above. There is a gap, but it’s not what I expected (at least this year). UT is getting 2.0 flags per game against opponents in Knoxville but 5.0 on the road.

The issue might be a small sample size. Last year was 6.5 home/4.0 away. 2022 was crazy: 11.2 at home and only 6.5 away.
 
#51,182
#51,182
Visidog said:
The data is at the link above. There is a gap, but it’s not what I expected (at least this year). UT is getting 2.0 flags per game against opponents in Knoxville but 5.0 on the road.

The issue might be a small sample size. Last year was 6.5 home/4.0 away. 2022 was crazy: 11.2 at home and only 6.5 away.
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This year isn't useful yet, we only had 2 cupcakes at home.

Last year it was 6.5 at home and 4.0 on the road. That's insane! Over 50% more flags at home!
 
#51,186
#51,186
Visidog said:
The data is at the link above. There is a gap, but it’s not what I expected (at least this year). UT is getting 2.0 flags per game against opponents in Knoxville but 5.0 on the road.

The issue might be a small sample size. Last year was 6.5 home/4.0 away. 2022 was crazy: 11.2 at home and only 6.5 away.
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I wish we could break out live ball from that. Pre snap you could argue crowd noise creates more false starts on the road, but live ball would help show if refs are calling in favor of the home team.
 
#51,187
#51,187
jave36 said:
I wish we could break out live ball from that. Pre snap you could argue crowd noise creates more false starts on the road, but live ball would help show if refs are calling in favor of the home team.
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Agreed. I don’t know if that data exists for CFB.

In the NFL, they track which side penalties come from, and they find that working the refs helps: flags are thrown more often when play takes place between the 20s, when coaches can stand next to refs.
 
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#51,189
#51,189
Visidog said:
Your eyes aren’t lying. UT’s opponents are flagged 4.3 times per game this year—9th fewest in the nation (126th of 134).

For comparison:

UGA’s opponents are flagged 5.5 times per game on average (89th out of 134).
Bama opponents are flagged 5.6 times per game (86th).
Auburn’s opponents are flagged 9.6 times per game (3rd).
Ohio State’s opponents have the fewest penalties called against them—3.4 per game.

Link here: College Football Stats - College FB Team Opponent Penalties per Game | TeamRankings.com
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Albeit small samples sizes the actual probability of our last two opponents getting as few penalties as they did is .003 or .3%. The probability of Tennessee getting the number of penalties they did is .04 or 4%.
The last two games we have had 10 penalties in each game. If the OU and Arkansas games were played 100 times Tennessee would have between 4 and 8 penalties 95 times. We had 10 in each which is 4 standard deviations above the mean. Translation: No f'ing way.
 
#51,190
#51,190
Jackcrevol said:
Ive followed recruiting closely since being a member on Gridscape. Posted on VQ; and Scout, then here. Used to do the VQ bbq's, lol met Josh McNeil'a folks and David Crompton, as well as Kevin Simon's Dad, who was a regular poster back in day '@therealviper'. Think Larry @LWSVOL used to attend those.

Anyway, it doesnt take a rocket surgeon to see that Glenn had suffered several recruiting losses in those first few seasons. Even this year, as good as class is. Could really use another G and T depth.

With increase against the 85 number, what are we doing?
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I will say this, as easy as our offense is to sell to qbs and wrs, it is a tougher sell to a 300 lb lineman.
 
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#51,191
#51,191
Visidog said:
Agreed. I don’t know if that data exists for CFB.

In the NFL, they track which side penalties come from, and they find that working the refs helps: flags are thrown more often when play takes place between the 20s, when coaches can stand next to refs.
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Ya, and I expect that, but if the nfl or ncaa really cared, they would track which crews have the largest gap between the 20s vs outside the 20s and work to make those officials aware that coaches are influencing them.
 
#51,192
#51,192
jave36 said:
This actually supports my theory that sec refs give huge home field advantages. Auburn has had all home games except for UGA, while we've had 2 cupcakes at home and that's it.

My suspicion is the SEC hires small minded, good ole boy officials who aren't actually the best at their trade, and when the crowd gets rocking, they're not experienced and adept enough to keep a level head and call the game well. The SEC home advantage is probably higher than anywhere else because oirbofficials are so bad and the SEC doesn't pick them based on being the best of the best. Just like if they put an average Joe out there, he's going to call in favor of the home team every time.
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It also gives a reason why top ranked teams seem to get a more favorable whistle than others when on the road. If you can jump out to an early lead and the crowd gets out of it, the officials buttholes don’t clench at the thought of calling a penalty against the home team
 
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#51,193
#51,193
BJHSVol said:
It also gives a reason why top ranked teams seem to get a more favorable whistle than others when on the road. If you can jump out to an early lead and the crowd gets out of it, the officials buttholes don’t clench at the thought of calling a penalty against the home team
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Excellent point. That would be a cool breakout too, what's the flag breakdown when the score isn't close vs when it is close. With all the money in football, they could easily hire a couple analysts to track all that stuff if they really cared about making officiating as good as it can possibly be.
 
#51,195
#51,195
DD4ME said:
Any thoughts or theories on our offensive struggles being a road problem?
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Any SEC road game and even Vandy now (right Little Nicky?) is going to be a challenge for the visiting offense. Communication is such huge part it affects getting the play in, calling the play, the checks, the protections, etc. Then there's travel, routine changes, and just general unfamiliarity.
I believe that playing at home cost the visiting offense at least one score even when it is handled well.
 
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