I mentioned earlier that I’d dive a bit into the stats behind Heupel’s tenure at UCF. If y’all want to talk more about numbers/methodologies we can do that, but I wanted to give a overview tonight.
Over the past couple years, I’ve tweaked a rating system I’ve made to evaluate coaches based on two criteria:
1. Overall performance. Better coaches generally have better teams. Obvious enough.
2. Performance relative to talent on the roster. We can talk for days about the state of development, but raw talent is something we can account for, via 247’s composite. Basically, more talent leads to a higher expectation of performance, and I want to see what coaches outperform their expected values the most.
To measure performance, I’m not going with wins and losses, but ESPN’s efficiency metrics. These are adjusted for SOS and pace, so we can avoid all the “they ain’t played nobody” and total-offense pitfalls. These metrics should tell us just how “good” the team was that year.
After evaluating performance and measuring against what they should’ve done according to their talent level, I’ve placed the values on a classic school grading scale. Saban gets a solid 100/A+, guys like Herman/Doeren are in the C+ range, and Pruitt comes in at a D+.
So now, based on the years 2015+, here are the results. I’ll list a few candidates here.
Freeze
Overall: 80
Offense: 87
Defense: 72
Herman
Overall: 79
Offense: 76
Defense: 80
Fleck
Overall: 78
Offense: 81
Defense: 71
Napier
Overall: 78
Offense: 86
Defense: 66
Chadwell
Overall: 74
Offense: 78
Defense: 67
Kiffin
Overall: 74
Offense: 81
Defense: 65
Dykes
Overall: 73
Offense: 80
Defense: 66
Leipold
Overall: 70
Offense: 72
Defense: 70
Healy
Overall: 58
Offense: 71
Defense: 50
Heupel
Overall: 88
Offense: 91
Defense: 76
Frankly, that offense is a machine, and it’s a consistent machine. Every year graded better than Kiffin’s best at FAU, without the drawback of the 2 that were barely meeting (or slightly failing) talent expectations.
Heupel’s overall profile of results vs. expectations is actually right there with Gundy/Wittingham, and his offensive grade is above the likes of Gundy/Mack Brown/Freeze/Petersen.
I’ve said it earlier, his recruiting and program building is a massive unknown, but this guy is no Sonny Dykes on the field.
Enjoy, and hit me up with any requests, data, questions if you’re interested.
