Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

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Ok then what is your ground truth metric for success? What do you want to measure his performance by outside of wins and losses???
Really?? Oh boy.

Sure, the final measure of a coach’s success in aggregate will always be wins and losses and championships, but that’s way too broad-brush a measure when looking at a small sample set. Actually, even overall it’s a shallow measure of performance since there are a lot of factors in play beyond the coach’s control but well leave that aside for now.

First of all, that 6-4 is a messy data point because 2020 is such an aberration nearly across the board. In 20 years when we’re looking at yearly W/L records for most teams, 2020 will be a weird spike up or down. The other two years are not significantly different from before so you have to go a little deeper to make a judgment that is translatable to expected outcomes elsewhere.

My original qualms with the Heupel hire were primarily that there wasn’t enough of a track record as HC to really know what to expect. As I’ve looked into him further since then I’m optimistic. But damn, his records of the last 3 seasons doesn’t even come close to a red flag.


Edit: I yield to @CharlestonVol15. He’s faster and smarter than me.
 
There are many different parts to CA, and the Bay Area, LA, OC and SD are not at all the same. People who don't like CA don't live there, and people who love it don't want to live anywhere else. TEHO.
TEHO. Exactly. That's why it's so annoying when people act like everyone should want to live at the beach or in a city. I don't. Glad most do. Although it's beginning to get alarming at the number moving here.
 
I’m not buying the potential difficulties in recruiting.

If Heupel can put an exciting product on the field this year, then he can pull Simpson.

If he can pull Simpson, then he’ll have a really good chance at pulling the bulk of the instate talent this year.

If he can pull the bulk of the instate talent, then he will have a top 12, maybe top 10 class.

If he continues to improve on the field, then recruiting will only get better. Win games and Tennessee sells itself.

If you get Neyland rocking, the recruits will come.

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Recruiting will take a big hit between Heupel not being great at it and the NCAA cloud of death
It is going to be tough to pull top blue chip high schoolers right now, I think getting the right transfers becomes more important until
The uncertainty has passed
 
Really?? Oh boy.

Sure, the final measure of a coach’s success in aggregate will always be wins and losses and championships, but that’s way too broad-brush a measure when looking at a small sample set. Actually, even overall it’s a shallow measure of performance since there are a lot of factors in play beyond the coach’s control but well leave that aside for now.

First of all, that 6-4 is a messy data point because 2020 is such an aberration nearly across the board. In 20 years when we’re looking at yearly W/L records for most teams, 2020 will be a weird spike up or down. The other two years are not significantly different from before so you have to go a little deeper to make a judgment that is translatable to expected outcomes elsewhere.

My original qualms with the Heupel hire were primarily that there wasn’t enough of a track record as HC to really know what to expect. As I’ve looked into him further since then I’m optimistic. But damn, his records of the last 3 seasons doesn’t even come close to a red flag.


Edit: I yield to @CharlestonVol15. He’s faster and smarter than me.
Don't feed the troll
 
You really think we get to almost 30 ppg in year 1? Hope so. 6-6 would be a good record this year.
He took Mizzou from 13 ppg to 31 ppg (+18) in Y1.

So, going from 21.5 to 29 (+7.5) I think is certainly possible. HB probably isn't much different than Lock going into his 2nd season, albeit a bit less experience. I like our other potential QBs too, experience in Hooker and raw great talent in Salter. Wildcard in Maurer...who might just be the most Lock-like of the group. But we have better receivers and OL. We might even have an NFL-caliber RB in Evans. Mizzou had nothing but Lock.
 
You know I see all the fans opinions on CJH and worrying about recruiting and worrying about retaining Kevin Steele because he’s “SEC proven” but I don’t buy it. You look at the elite programs in the SEC and even around the country and I see very little that proves to me in the way these coaching staffs are built that suggests that they have to have some kind of connection to the school or needs to be “SEC caliber”—I’ll just bring up the fact that through our struggles we’ve had a mix of supposed SEC elite recruiters or SEC proven coaches and they’ve by and large failed. Phil failed—Pruitt failed and was a cheater—doesn’t that prove that this bias towards hiring because they are “UT” and “SEC” is crap?
 
For you stock junkies- What’s the best app to invest and what stocks would ya recommend starting with?
As has been reinforced recently - I wouldn't trust my money and ability to trade with these new "apps". Invest with reliable, established players. I'm personally with Fidelity, mostly just because that is where my retirement accounts have always been established, but they have been great. No complaints.

As someone else said - use low-cost index funds or ETFs starting out. Instant diversification. Sticking all your investment funds into individual stocks of a basket with less than 30 different stocks will leave you undiversified and open to nonsystematic risk.

Imo, once you are well established and have learned to study and research company fundamentals and accounting footnotes - maybe branch out to putting 10-15% of your portfolio into individual stocks, international equities, and riskier asset classes.

Jmo, but I also like making verry long plays into future big industries - robotics, biomedical, AI, etc. You can grab ETFs that will manage these for you (though have higher expense ratios) and are 20-30 year plays. Looking for industries that will have the future Apples, Googles, etc.
 
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I don't think you can just extrapolate Heupels Mizzou numbers and say he will do that here. He seems to evolve from year to year. That's probably the trait that excites me the most about him. I'm guessing he's a different play caller and coach now than he was back then.

I'm excited to watch the Vols again. For that reason alone im pretty pleased with the hire. That excitement had pretty much left the building last season for me.
To be honest, I was dreading the spring game with JP coming back.
 
The hire alone. He hired a coach that has overseen a significant decline of a program he took over that happens to be far easier than the SEC. 6-4 year 3 after taking over a 12-0. That is material and the data doesn’t look good. Sure, he has fun offense but clearly he isn’t outperforming his competition.
Lol 😂 this is just a false narrative.

Huepel lost a total of three games by a total of 7 points after his 13-0 season.

Then this year went 6 and 4 after he had many opt outs and still post over 600yds a game average. (Only bad loss was in a bowl game - you know that thing we didn’t even make it to)
 
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He took Mizzou from 13 ppg to 31 ppg (+18) in Y1.

So, going from 21.5 to 29 (+7.5) I think is certainly possible. HB probably isn't much different than Lock going into his 2nd season, albeit a bit less experience. I like our other potential QBs too, experience in Hooker and raw great talent in Salter. Wildcard in Maurer...who might just be the most Lock-like of the group. But we have better receivers and OL. We might even have an NFL-caliber RB in Evans. Mizzou had nothing but Lock.
What I like about that is that it implies his system is easy to learn.
 
As has been reinforced recently - i wouldn't trust my money with these new "apps". Trade with reliable, established players. I'm personally with Fidelity, mostly just because that is where my retirement accounts have always been with, but they have been great. No complaints.
This. All the companies have "apps". Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab, and others all have apps, and they all offer no cost trades.
 
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