Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

[T Dog]

I'd like to thank everyone for this. @frank has just delivered my golden cheagle and I will preside over the midget virgin lava sacrifice at the annual picnic. Kiss the ring, morans.

View attachment 347530

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Dug into the losses at UCF since that seems to be a popular topic.

2018 vs LSU
With a backup QB scored 32 points against and LSU team that only allowed more than 32 once all year that year... and that game went into 7 OTs. In regular time, nobody scored more against LSU that year than UCF. They also played awful that game, went back and watched it. There were so many missed plays by the offense.
1 INT, 1 Fumble

2019:
The biggest issues in all their losses in 2019 was turnovers and special teams. When Gabriel got loose with the ball, UCF lost.

vs Pitt - 2 Interceptions and a punt return TD
vs Cinci - 3 Interceptions (1 for a TD), 1 fumble (all Gabriel shades of JG)
vs Tulsa - 2 Interceptions (including 1 deep in the 4th quarter with a tied game), 1 fumble

2020:
More of the same with turnovers and also Randy Shannon.. woof.
vs Tulsa - 1 Interception, 2 fumbles
vs Memphis - 1 Interception (this game is actually just defensive malpractice by Randy Shannon) UCF goes up 49-37 with like 5 minutes left, defense lets them go 6 plays 84 yards in under 2 minutes then 9 plays 85 yards in 1:30. Then UCF misses a 40 yd field goal with 19 seconds left to win.
vs Cincinnati - 1 INT. Dillon Gabriel just didn't have a great game. Give Cincinnati credit here.
vs BYU - another real poor performance for Gabriel and just an abysmal performance for Randy Shannon.

TOP has been discussed a lot. I was actually surprised that they wasn't a larger discrepancy in some of these:
2018:
LSU 44:31 to 15:29 (This is what I expected them all to look like)

2019:
Pitt - 35:42 to 24:18
Cinci - 31:52 to 28:08
Tulsa - 33:33 to 26:27

2020:
Tulsa 30:34 to 29:26
Memphis 33:37 to 26:23
Cinci 37:08 to 22:52
BYU - 33:22 to 26:38 UCF

I'll say it again, we have something here. If he hires a solid DC, Steele or someone else, we can be very, very good. He's going to have QB and receiver talent here. He already has some top talent there on this roster. We might have fallen into a home run and don't realize it yet.

 

[SpringBokVol]

photoshop.

Duh! That took my like 1 minute.

That will be 9.95

 

[drvenner]

I'd like to thank everyone for this. @frank has just delivered my golden cheagle and I will preside over the midget virgin lava sacrifice at the annual picnic. Kiss the ring, morans.

View attachment 347530

You da champ.

 

[drvenner]

Holla:
View attachment 347533

Sorry, @bignewt, you da runner-up. Holy crap.

 

[Vols410]

Ok, gonna give this another shot.

Here's a breakdown of a few 2017 Missouri games using two things.

1. Missouri's expected offensive efficiency (ESPN) given their talent. (53.62, slightly above average)

2. Opponents' actual defensive efficiency reported for 2017. We're measuring the value added by Heupel, without taking into account sucky coaches (thanks Morris/Arky...)

I'll then take the differences and use them to compare against Tennessee's 2020 schedule, for example:
2017 Missouri expected offense: 53.62
2017 Florida actual defense: 59.1
Difference: -5.48

2020 Tennessee expected offense: 64.95
2020 Texas A&M actual defense: 69.9
Difference: -4.95

Now for the results

South Carolina: L 31-13
Talent Diff: -12.68
Similar 2020 Defense: Alabama (-12.65)

Kentucky: L 34-40
Talent Diff: +10.12
Similar Opponent: Florida (+10.05)

Florida: W 45-16
Talent Diff: -5.48
Similar Opponent: Texas A&M (-4.95)

Tennessee: W 50-17
Talent Diff: +6.52
Similar Opponent: LSU (+5.35)

Vanderbilt: W 45-17
Talent Diff: +16.62
Similar Opponent: Missouri (+28.25)

So in summary, with our roster, Heupel’s results at Missouri were equivalent to scoring (in 2020 w/ Tennessee):

13 points on Bama
34 on Florida
45 on A&M
50 on LSU
45 on Missouri

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Ok, gonna give this another shot.

Here's a breakdown of a few 2017 Missouri games using two things.

1. Missouri's expected offensive efficiency (ESPN) given their talent. (53.62, slightly above average)

2. Opponents' actual defensive efficiency reported for 2017. We're measuring the value added by Heupel, without taking into account sucky coaches (thanks Morris/Arky...)

I'll then take the differences and use them to compare against Tennessee's 2020 schedule, for example:
2017 Missouri expected offense: 53.62
2017 Florida actual defense: 59.1
Difference: -5.48

2020 Tennessee expected offense: 64.95
2020 Texas A&M actual defense: 69.9
Difference: -4.95

Now for the results

South Carolina: L 31-13
Talent Diff: -12.68
Similar 2020 Defense: Alabama (-12.65)

Kentucky: L 34-40
Talent Diff: +10.12
Similar Opponent: Florida (+10.05)

Florida: W 45-16
Talent Diff: -5.48
Similar Opponent: Texas A&M (-4.95)

Tennessee: W 50-17
Talent Diff: +6.52
Similar Opponent: LSU (+5.35)

Vanderbilt: W 45-17
Talent Diff: +16.62
Similar Opponent: Missouri (+28.25)

So in summary, with our roster, Heupel’s results at Missouri were equivalent to scoring (in 2020 w/ Tennessee):

13 points on Bama
34 on Florida
45 on A&M
50 on LSU
45 on Missouri

sweet Christmas

 

[volsnvikes]

Ok, gonna give this another shot.

Here's a breakdown of a few 2017 Missouri games using two things.

1. Missouri's expected offensive efficiency (ESPN) given their talent. (53.62, slightly above average)

2. Opponents' actual defensive efficiency reported for 2017. We're measuring the value added by Heupel, without taking into account sucky coaches (thanks Morris/Arky...)

I'll then take the differences and use them to compare against Tennessee's 2020 schedule, for example:
2017 Missouri expected offense: 53.62
2017 Florida actual defense: 59.1
Difference: -5.48

2020 Tennessee expected offense: 64.95
2020 Texas A&M actual defense: 69.9
Difference: -4.95

Now for the results

South Carolina: L 31-13
Talent Diff: -12.68
Similar 2020 Defense: Alabama (-12.65)

Kentucky: L 34-40
Talent Diff: +10.12
Similar Opponent: Florida (+10.05)

Florida: W 45-16
Talent Diff: -5.48
Similar Opponent: Texas A&M (-4.95)

Tennessee: W 50-17
Talent Diff: +6.52
Similar Opponent: LSU (+5.35)

Vanderbilt: W 45-17
Talent Diff: +16.62
Similar Opponent: Missouri (+28.25)

So in summary, with our roster, Heupel’s results at Missouri were equivalent to scoring (in 2020 w/ Tennessee):

13 points on Bama
34 on Florida
45 on A&M
50 on LSU
45 on Missouri

new.math.

 

[Smokeytom]

Why would UT have to pay Auburn? They fired him.

I think you got the wrong guy man! lol

 

[Vols410]

sweet Christmas

UCF analysis coming soon

 

[Johncarter53]

 

[Smokey X]

1) Acid on top of Acid?
2) You didn't answer my question about your statement regarding body chemistry.

Not arguing ... genuinely interested.

I took Prilosec/omeprazole for years. My physician took me off of it a couple of years ago due to some preliminary studies which indicated a link to Alzheimer's disease.

Don't know if that link was ever substantiated but most likely it is still being researched.

Overall haven't missed it that much as long as I watch my diet more than I used to. But it does flare up on occasion...usually associated with tailgates and UTK games...go figure.

 

[T Dog]

 

[butchna]

I took Prilosec/omeprazole for years. My physician took me off of it a couple of years ago due to some preliminary studies which indicated a link to Alzheimer's disease.

Don't know if that link was ever substantiated but most likely it is still being researched.

Overall haven't missed it that much as long as I watch my diet more than I used to. But it does flare up on occasion...usually associated with tailgates and UTK games...go figure.

There was very little I could eat without complications. I thought my pancreas was shutting down. This solved it in spades so I’ll await any pending research.

 

[Smokeytom]

#Blessed

 

[Sleegro]

Also this bugs me a tad, the transfer portal names aren't all even scholarship guys.

Hill - PWO (no scholarship awarded)
Montgomery - was a PWO and given a scholarship, but those are only awarded by semester (don't think it was renewed)
Allen/Buchanan - both were injured and I'm not sure either was still on an active football scholarship
Abercrombie, Rinke, Gaddy, Edwards - all walk-ons
Bennet - dismissed from the team

Not sure why kids not on active football rosters have to even enter the portal (especially walk-ons)...

Walk ons have the same transfer rules. Baker Mayfield was a walk on at tech, transferred to Oklahoma as a walk on and had to sit a year.

 

[Smokeytom]

This makes me want to read 'Don't kill myself' books

 

[Vol in Tears]

Ok, gonna give this another shot.

Here's a breakdown of a few 2017 Missouri games using two things.

1. Missouri's expected offensive efficiency (ESPN) given their talent. (53.62, slightly above average)

2. Opponents' actual defensive efficiency reported for 2017. We're measuring the value added by Heupel, without taking into account sucky coaches (thanks Morris/Arky...)

I'll then take the differences and use them to compare against Tennessee's 2020 schedule, for example:
2017 Missouri expected offense: 53.62
2017 Florida actual defense: 59.1
Difference: -5.48

2020 Tennessee expected offense: 64.95
2020 Texas A&M actual defense: 69.9
Difference: -4.95

Now for the results

South Carolina: L 31-13
Talent Diff: -12.68
Similar 2020 Defense: Alabama (-12.65)

Kentucky: L 34-40
Talent Diff: +10.12
Similar Opponent: Florida (+10.05)

Florida: W 45-16
Talent Diff: -5.48
Similar Opponent: Texas A&M (-4.95)

Tennessee: W 50-17
Talent Diff: +6.52
Similar Opponent: LSU (+5.35)

Vanderbilt: W 45-17
Talent Diff: +16.62
Similar Opponent: Missouri (+28.25)

So in summary, with our roster, Heupel’s results at Missouri were equivalent to scoring (in 2020 w/ Tennessee):

13 points on Bama
34 on Florida
45 on A&M
50 on LSU
45 on Missouri

Found Scott Steiner

 

[bignewt]

Holla:
View attachment 347533

photoshop.

 

[Catbone]

Hotel? Yeah, right. I bet that's hanging somewhere in your house. Probably the bathroom.

 

[windrider]

I'll say it again, we have something here. If he hires a solid DC, Steele or someone else, we can be very, very good. He's going to have QB and receiver talent here. He already has some top talent there on this roster. We might have fallen into a home run and don't realize it yet.

Oh, how I want to believe that. I think if he can somehow patch us up a serviceable office line, then we're in business. Agree on the defensive side. Hope he, Steele, and DW can work it out.

 

[Vols410]

And now, UCF...

Georgia Tech: W 49-21
Talent Diff: +5.65
Similar Opponent: LSU (+5.35)

ECU: W 51-28
Talent Diff: +3.15
Similar Opponent: Nebraska (+2.95)

Tulsa: L 26-34
Talent Diff: -20.35
Similar Opponent: Iowa (-19.85)

Memphis: L 49-50
Talent Diff: -8.55
Similar Opponent: Iowa State (-9.45)

Tulane: W 51-34
Talent Diff: +1.15
Similar Opponent: Kentucky (+0.65)

Houston: W 44-21
Talent Diff: +1.55
Similar Opponent: Kentucky (+0.65)

Temple: W 38-13
Talent Diff: +15.25
Similar Opponent: NC State (+13.65)

Cincinnati: L 33-36
Talent Diff: -26.35
Similar Opponent: Clemson (-21.35)

South Florida: W 58-46
Talent Diff: +18.55
Similar Opponent: North Carolina (+19.95)

BYU: L 23-49
Talent Diff: -16.65
Similar Opponent: Oklahoma (-16.95)

So, once again, the equilavents accounting for the talent gap would be a Tennessee 2020 offensive output of:

49 points on LSU
51 on Nebraska
26 on Iowa
49 on Iowa State
51 and 44 on Kentucky
38 on NC State
33 on Clemson
58 on North Carolina
23 on Oklahoma

If these make you skeptical, Cincinatti/Tulsa both had VERY good AAC defenses.

Tulsa held Oklahoma state to 16 points.
Cincinatti held Georgia to 24, Memphis to 10, Houston to 10, Army to 10.

UCF scored more on Cincinatti than any team.
UCF scored the second most points on Tulsa.

 

[UTMVol76]

I'll say it again, we have something here. If he hires a solid DC, Steele or someone else, we can be very, very good. He's going to have QB and receiver talent here. He already has some top talent there on this roster. We might have fallen into a home run and don't realize it yet.

Oh God I want to believe!!!

 

[Catbone]

I'll say it again, we have something here. If he hires a solid DC, Steele or someone else, we can be very, very good. He's going to have QB and receiver talent here. He already has some top talent there on this roster. We might have fallen into a home run and don't realize it yet.

I agree. But that is a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUGEEEE if.

 

[UTMVol76]

@Vols410

That's incredible my friend, gracias!