Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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#12,856
#12,856
highspeed said:
Not sure if you got any good responses on this. I don’t have time to really keep up with the thread like I used to. But I will chime in with some opinions from an amateur since I’m procrastinating on some work and can kind of geek out on this stuff.

Yes, there has been speculation that the housing market will take a hit short term. There has been a federal moratorium on foreclosures in response to COVID, but that is set to expire soon. Some people believe that will lead to a short-term decline in housing prices as those foreclosed properties hit the market and increase the available inventory, and of course if things get really crazy with political upheaval, economy crashing, global warming running rampant, pandemic getting much worse, etc., all bets are off. But my amateur guess is that none of those things will result in a worst case scenario and any drop in prices will be short lived.

One of the biggest reasons I say this is that, in general, the rate of new housing construction is not keeping up with population growth and movement patterns, which is a big reason prices keep going up. We essentially have more and more people competing for fewer and fewer available homes (especially in the “hot” markets). One thing you can look at is how that is trending in your specific area. That should give you a better idea of what local prices are likely to do in the future (at least short to mid term).

The price of materials and labor has also increased significantly in recent months, and that trend does not seem to be slowing regardless of anything that may happen with foreclosures. Maybe material prices start to trend down if we ever get really clear of COVID, but I think higher labor costs are here to stay. My guess is that these factors continue to press prices higher for new construction or at least that we see a plateau rather than a decline.

Trying to time the market is nearly impossible though. It really could go either way just because there are so many factors at play. One plus of buying right now is that interest rates are still very low. I think a lot of first-time home buyers don’t realize how much low interest rates can save them over the life of a mortgage (I certainly didn’t). Interest rates are likely to increase in the next 2-5 years as the federal reserve is expected to go back to raising rates incrementally.

The risk of buying now and having prices drop later is that you end up owing more on the house than it’s worth and/or that you end up having to sell it at a loss. If you only expect to be in the house short term, that may be a risk that’s not worth taking. However, if you’re planning to be there long term, you will probably be able to ride out any bumps in the market and come out ahead.

The risk in waiting is that maybe the market troubles never come (or are minimal or short lived) so prices continue to rise while interest rates also increase. Then you end up paying more on both ends when you eventually do decide to buy.

My experience having bought a couple of homes now is that renters pay more for less. You can get a nicer home for a lower monthly rate if you buy. We bought our current house (my 2nd house buying experience) last winter after renting for a couple of years because of some extenuating circumstances. The house we now own is almost twice the size of the place we were renting (both in the same city). Our new place is in a nicer neighborhood with better schools and a much bigger yard. But here’s the kicker: it’s also cheaper each month than the place we were renting. Having a rainy day fund on hand is important for repairs, but even taking repairs into account, it has been cheaper for me to own than rent (though there has certainly been some luck involved in that as well). Aside from that, getting significant equity in a home is one of the biggest keys to creating financial security and generational wealth for those of us who don’t earn huge salaries.

Speaking only of my own personal experience, the only regret I have about buying a house is that I didn’t do it sooner. I was in my early 30s when I pulled the trigger. Thinking of all the rent I paid in my 20s just about makes me sick. The way I see it now is that every month of rent paid is a loss on future returns.

I lived in the first house I bought for several years, but when I moved out, I kept it as a rental property. I paid $75k for it in 2013. It’s now worth $190k. I pay $420 a month for the mortgage, insurance, and property tax and get $1,200 a month in rent. Between the renter and the owner, I think it’s pretty clear who’s coming out ahead.

I’ll also add that while it’s true that for most of us a house is the biggest investment we will ever make, it’s also a home. In buying our current house, which we plan to live in for a very long time, my attitude was that I wanted to find something we really liked and that was well within our means. We achieved that. We’re happy here, and we can comfortably afford the monthly payments. With that said, I really don’t worry about the market dropping because we’re in a good place (both physically and financially) for our family.

I guess, in conclusion, I would say that it’s much more important to get the timing right for you and your family than it is to time the market perfectly. And as professional investors will tell you, timing the market is a fool’s game. Over the long haul, time in the market (meaning the number of years you’re investing and building equity) is more important than timing the market.

Sorry for the ridiculously long response. No one will probably ever read it, but good luck in your search.
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This is a thoughtful response - I’m in real estate and agree with all the points you made. I would add that buyers are putting a lot more cash down than any time in the last 10-15 years. This is also an indicator that, while prices may dip a bit or level out, I don’t see a steep drop like we saw previously.
 
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#12,858
#12,858
@nicksjuzunk must think we're off this week.

working-asleep.gif
 
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#12,859
#12,859
SmokinBob said:
This is a thoughtful response - I’m in real estate and agree with all the points you made. I would add that buyers are putting a lot more cash down than any time in the last 10-15 years. This is also an indicator that, while prices may dip a bit or level out, I don’t see a steep drop like we saw previously.
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I agree. We just bought a house in December last in Charlotte, and we almost waited because we were just moving to the area and didn’t know where to buy. Decided not to wait and thank goodness we didn’t. My house has increased in value by $80k in 10 months. I don’t think I would be able to afford a house now if we had waited. At least not one we wanted.
 
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#12,861
#12,861
Christian Lowe said:
Plus I’m just out of options. I don’t want to deliver packages for $15 an hour or work an entry level QA job for $14 an hour for the rest of my life. I got a worthless degree, made my bed, time to sleep in it.

That isn’t to say I’m not passionate about history, I am. I love it. I just don’t love the rigid curriculum I’ll be forced to teach by the state based on nothing more than indoctrination rather than facts. And that will be what ends my career in the only field I can manage a career in.
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Go into Federal Law Enforcement. Well as long as you have a clean background. They don’t care what your degree is in and depending on which Agency you go with you’ll make way more money.
 
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#12,866
#12,866
ndubvols said:
It’s been 2 games… say what you want but this isn’t the same staff.

Nobody is infallible, but at least give them a chance to make mistakes/correct them as needed. Everyone complaining about qb’s pretends this staff has been trotting JG out there for 3 years when in reality we’ve seen 2 qb’s in 2 games.

Hope some of you guys aren’t bosses. You’d fire one guy for bad performance then can the next guy after 1 mistake because he reminded you of the last guy. Pretty ridiculous line of thinking at this point in JH’s tenure.
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This staff has the players motivated to play hard and are having a great scripted game plan and are excellent making adjustments. I hate losing a game when we go minus 3 in turnovers. But these guys are the best coaches we have had here in ages. If they can recruit their type of guy then they will build this. Hate losing but hope we continue to play hard and coach well. We out coached that veteran Pitt staff and they know they were lucky as heck to win.
 
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#12,867
#12,867
Kingston Vol said:
Right now we’re eating 20,000 seats a game. Unheard of at Tennessee. Couple this with Danny White and the new athletic department changing fundraising operations and taking season tickets away from long time holders, and fan apathy is as high as it has ever been.

It can turn around with wins, no doubt. But unfortunately our next home game of substance is South Carolina in three weeks. If you come back from Missouri 2-3, that crowd will be flat as well.
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What is this taking season tickets away from donors you are talking about?
 
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#12,869
#12,869
cHiZzLeVOL said:
Go into Federal Law Enforcement. Well as long as you have a clean background. They don’t care what your degree is in and depending on which Agency you go with you’ll make way more money.
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Christian hates govt. Got the wrong guy. Unless he goes Full Ron Swanson 😅
 
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#12,875
#12,875
cHiZzLeVOL said:
Lol well he is talking about having a worthless degree and making crap money. Just offering a suggestion.
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He thinks $15/hr is crap money 🤣 Man if he was just 10 years younger. Wage expectations seem to be skyrocketing lately. One of our friends recently took up side work at Sonic...they're paying her $20/hr as a food runner 😶

I used to work at a kiosk in West Town Mall in HS for $5.75/hr. Yeezus...
 
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