I think Florida and LSU are toss-up games for the moment. I think people are thinking talent is relatively even this year. It’s probably closer than other years but I think our advantage is probably that we have more proven talent, meaning this year at this point we have a better idea of what we’ve got and don’t got.
On paper, Florida has 6 five-stars and a total of 14 top 100 players (> 95). In all they have 41 blue chips on their 2022 roster.
LSU has 4 five stars, 16 top 100 players (> 95), and 37 blue chips in all.
We have 2 five stars, 5 top 100 players (> 95), and 27 blue chips in all.
According to Bill Connelly’s last update we’re ranked #26 for returning production, Florida is at #59, and LSU is at #65.
I think some people think because we improved from 3 wins to 7 wins we had a huge jump in improvement last year. I think we did improve at scoring points but not against the big 3. Last year against UF, UA, and UGA it was pretty much the same as 2020 only marginally worse. Against the other 7 Power 5 teams on our schedule last year, we beat SC, MO, and VU, same as we did in 2020. The difference in wins was UK. We went from our QB throwing pick sixes to their team in 2020 to their QB throwing a pick six to our team in 2021. That was ultimately a critical factor in the outcome of the game because Kentucky’s offense actually outscored our offense on the day.
So we played 10 power 5 games both years, winning 3 in 2020 and 4 in 2021, owing to the UK win. Our 3 cupcakes in 2020 (Charlotte, Troy, & Furman) got cancelled due to Covid but last year we padded our win totals with a combined 154-20 drubbing of Bowing Green, South Alabama, and Tennessee Tech. I’m definitely not suggesting Pruitt would be able to destroy cupcakes is such a satisfying way but we didn’t even get to play the cupcakes in 2020.
Where I think we improved last year was as I said, in scoring points. We had 7 common P5 opponents in both years, as already noted. For the other 3, in 2020 we had Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Auburn. In 2021 we had Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, and Purdue. Against those 3 teams in 2020 we scored 43 points but in 2021 we scored 105. We still didn’t win but we did score a lot of points.
Against the 7 common P5 opponents in 2020 we scored 162 points and in 2021 we improved that to 252 points. Against the big 3 we scored 57 points in 2020 and 55 in 2021.
All total in 2020 we scored 205 points against 10 P5 opponents and gave up 292 points. In 2021 we scored 357 points against 10 P5 opponents and gave up 358.
I don’t think we’ve changed as much as it looks like from a team standpoint. Obviously we have a night and day improved culture and a scheme on offense that can score points against most of our schedule, and of course we’re back to having a few cupcakes on our schedule. The only 2 power 5 teams I think are sure wins this year are Vanderbilt and probably Missouri. I think everybody else is either a toss-up or close to it. The games could go either way and as strange as it may sound I think that’s indicative of improvement. jmo.
Last year we had 4 toss-up games. I think this year we may have 6. I can make a case why we could win all 6 and I can make a case where we lose all 6. They’re toss-up games, at least at this point. You win some; you lose some. This year all total I’d like to see us win at least 8 total games because that would clearly indicate to the college football world and prospective recruits that we’re obviously continuing to move in the right direction. jmo.
I think 2025 is our year if we’re going to ever get back, at least in my remaining years. Nico will be a redshirt sophomore with a year of experience under his belt. From a roster standpoint I think we got 8 guys last year that will be among our top 40 players on that 2025 team. We’ve got maybe 5 more so far committed for 2023. We need 13 in 2023 and 13 more in 2024 then at least 6 in 2025. jmo.
Of the project recruits we’re bringing in normally among FBS teams around 6.25% of them make it to the NFL. Our rate since 2016 is at 9%. Georgia is at 15%. In any event I think we can count on maybe 5 or 6 of our project players between the 2022 and 2024 classes developing into quality NFL talent. With Nico and a roster loaded with NFL prospects I think we’d probably have 10 sure wins and maybe a couple of toss-ups. That’s what I hope we can do with this rebuilding effort and in a time frame where I might live to see it. jmo.