I break it down like this. Bama and Georgia, at this point, should be better than us and should win. We still have a chance, but they should win. So that's two losses.
Florida and LSU are both toss-ups. We could win both, we could lose both, but IMO, at the very least, we should split them. So one loss from that group.
Everyone else we should beat IMO. That's why I say 9-3. But if asked to choose which was more likely, 8-4 or 10-2, I'd pick 10-2. Maybe I'm overconfident, but I like this team, and barring injury as you noted, the floor should be 9-3 IMO. I think we're capable of upsetting UGA IF we're healthy. Not saying it will happen, but I believe it can happen.