From the Stanford Steve and The Bear show talking SEC win totals:
Steve: Tennessee! Everybody's Vols. Do you believe the hype?
Bear: Offensively I believe the hype for sure. The issue that I have with Tennessee is more of a "me" problem. I didn't think that last year was going to go well for them at all, and then for them to smash and exceed *my* expectations for them... and now everyone has expectations for them. It's the old adage - if you weren't at the baptism, you don't wanna be there for the funeral. Do you wanna go all-in on a team you really weren't sure about last year, and then they have this prolific offense, and now everybody is on them. They have the Bama game, they go to Georgia, they go to LSU, they go to South Carolina, they go to Pitt. There are some land mines there for them to deal navigate with a defense that I think still has some issues.
Steve: I agree on all fronts. I think the Pitt game is massive, especially when you talk about win total. I've seen over 7.5 -160 and over 8 -120. I don't really want to touch either of those. I mean, how much better can hendon hooker be? He was phenomenal [reading stats]. And they found him in that game against Pitt, so to me, that game dictates a lot. I've heard people talk about Florida is a must-win, well yeah, if you wanna have a breakout year. But you have to go to Pitt and win, because they beat you in *your* house last year. To take that next step, that's a game you have to win. The only team worse on third down defense was Missouri. They were 42% on 3rd down, that's 102 in the NCAA. I don't think their defense takes that amount of strides (to fix that). Factor that with Hooker, I don't think he has another tier to his game, I think we saw his ceiling last year. Tillman was unbelievable last year, I still can't believe he didn't make that catch against Ole Miss last year. But for all those reasons, Tennessee is a "stay away" for me this year.
Bear: I agree on the "stay away" part of it.
(What's weird about the comments above is that for every other opponent of ours, they mentioned our game as a tough game for them. So they think we can beat almost anyone but don't want to take us to get to 8+ wins because of the defense.)
Note: this basically means that they are calling for us to go 8-4.
more notes:
SEC
-Both think Bama will probably go undefeated
-Don't think UGA or Bama will lose 2 or more games
-Dating back to 2000, Mike Leach has had 3 3rd year QBs. Every team went on to win 9+ games. 24 year old QB. Over 6.5.
-too much turnover for ole miss. Could see start 7-0 but finishing 7-5. Looking at under 8.
-leaning auburn over 6. Others at ESPN circling auburn over 6. Think push at worst.
-arky - might be better team this year with worse results than last year. Leaning under 7.5
-LSU over 7. Think it will push, but they have upside. They have a qb that has been there since before Burrow transferred there...
-doesn't see A&M getting to double digit wins
-they're on UGA over 10.5 where they can get it.
-Theyre under Florida 7.5. Like the Napier hire but think they have a lot of growing pains. More of a chance that they beat Utah at home than Tennessee on the road.
-they literally laughed about Vandy
-hesitant on Kentucky this year. They usually take Kentucky season total overs but think this team might take a step back.
-don't know what to make of South Carolina. Think over will be hard for them to hit over. Steve has over 6. "I am not a Spencer rattler fan, but he is light years ahead of the QBs that they had."
-they can't stop anybody. Looking at their point total over in their games week to week. Don't think they'll make bowl. "What Tennessee did to them was just brutal. They scored on 10 of their first 11 possessions!"