Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

[MoCo_Vol]

What's weird is I completely agree but perception says I shouldn't.
The last 2 FL coaches lasted 3 yrs and 4 yrs.
The last 2 TN coaches lasted 3 yrs and 5 yrs.
1 season difference and they're viewed as terminators and us as floundering around.
You have to look deeper at the wins and losses. Mac got an extra year after losing to TN. Jones got another year after peaking at 8 and still losing to Vandy.

To be fair in those 7 years the Gators also tied or won the East 3 times, also reached 10 win seasons 3 times, UF was also 6-1 against UT in that 7 year period.

Butch & Dooley combined for 18-43 in the SEC, with only 1 season in 8 years above 500 in conference. McElwain & Muschamp in their 7 years went 33-23. With one less season they nearly doubled our in conference win totals.

 

[jakez4ut]

Yeah I just don't agree, incoming freshman can only be rated or ranked by where they are graded. We have had better classes on average than anyone in the East except for Georgia and Florida over the last 5 years. Butch mishandled them and it set us back, that doesn't change the fact the players can be developed with a good coach, perfect example is the NFL and how often non productive players (Justin Coleman for example) can be developed into not just on roster guys but starters in the NFL. The fact we've recruited better AND lost less production than Missouri, Vandy, USC, and Kentucky tells me this should be the year we have the best chance to turn the corner. Need to make that 2+ win jump and start winning or the recruiting won't become top 10 level on a consistent basis.

Most of, pretty much all of, the players that he brought in those two huge classes aren't on the roster any more.

If you're judging the talent level it's really the last three classes, not past 5. And the best of those three is the most recent.

Unless you just wanna compare average class rank... Which is fine, but a 5 year average just doesn't tell the story...

Attrition rate was astronomical on those two classes.

And youth and inexperienced do count for something... Especially when you're in a position like us where you are going to have to count on several of these incoming freshmen to contribute or start.... That they may be the best option says a lot about the overall talent currently on the roster.

So while the talent level technically increases... It doesn't automatically equal production.


All that said, I do totally agree that we should expect improvement... It's year two there will be development for returning guys from last year and the ee's. And I think that +2 games is reasonable.

I just think the talent argument based on ratings is way overlayed in regards to what anyone should expect results wise this year.... Especially when the best class we've had the last three is the most recent one... Gimme 2 or three classes like this last one and the development that comes with it and I'm way more inclined to agree with you.

 

[Catbone]

So.....all this news about UF is exciting for UT fans! What can be done? Oh, oh I know let's invent something to be negative about and interject into the conversation. But what? Eh, not much out there....maybe recruiting that is 8 months away from EARLY signing day. Yep, boom, that is it!

Sit down

 

[McGeesPub]

IDT competing with UF and UGA should be that far away. Two years of player development, better conditioning and an incoming class with some difference-makers should help us put a better team on the field this year. A good recruiting class this year, with some key needs met, should put us further along next year. We're not going to be Bama or Clemson any time soon, but we don't need to be Bama or Clemson to compete for the East.

As for UF, they rebound quicker because their leadership is less tolerant of losing than UT's has been. UT has been content with less for a long time. UT does well when we have coaches that have higher expectations than the admin-- Fulmer, Summitt, even the Weeklys, though we're slipping a bit there. When a driven, self-motivated coach personally invests in building a championship team, UT field thems. We just haven't hired many coaches of that caliber.

We are really good at finding coaches who make it look much harder than I think it actually is. And I’m not saying that it’s easy, but somethings are just dumbfounding - Kiffin turning away Boyd, Dooley burning bridges with half the HS programs below the Mason Dixon line, Butch somehow forgetting that yeah, an S&C program is kind of important in football. I just don’t get it. Actually I do. You get what you pay for.

 

[jakez4ut]

We are really good at finding coaches who make it look much harder than I think it actually is. And I’m not saying that it’s easy, but somethings are just dumbfounding - Kiffin turning away Boyd, Dooley burning bridges with half the HS programs below the Mason Dixon line, Butch somehow forgetting that yeah, an S&C program is kind of important in football. I just don’t get it. Actually I do. You get what you pay for.

Well when you put it like that...lol

 

[LA Vol]

What's weird is I completely agree but perception says I shouldn't.
The last 2 FL coaches lasted 3 yrs and 4 yrs.
The last 2 TN coaches lasted 3 yrs and 5 yrs.
1 season difference and they're viewed as terminators and us as floundering around.
You have to look deeper at the wins and losses. Mac got an extra year after losing to TN. Jones got another year after peaking at 8 and still losing to Vandy.

My point was that UF doesn't let their program go too far south before fixing it-- i.e., terminating the one causing it to go southward.

In McElwain's first year, he went 10-2/7-1, won the SECE and was COTY. He lost to rival UT in Year 2, but STILL went 9-3/6-2 and won the SECE. In Year 3, he beat UT but lost to LSU and aTm by 1 and 2 points... then lost to rival UGA 7-42, and UF fired him that day. Three SEC losses in three weeks, with the shark photo in the middle of it, and UF cut their losses halfway through the season. McElwain was 3-4/3-3 in the SEC during his half of it. He beat his top East rivals, UT and UGA, 2 out of his 3 years.

During Butch's tenure at UT, he won the SECE 0 times, suffered many blowout losses and went 1-4 against UF, 2-3 against UGA, 0-5 against Bama and 2-3 against Vandy. That's 3-12 against our top 3 rivals in five years.

So I've looked deeper and my conclusion is the same-- UF acts swiftly to stop their program from declining, while UT has shown the tendency to flounder around before being forced to act.

 

[SSVol]

We act reluctantly. They act decisively.

Think Fulmer's actions suggest that will be different under him.

 

[LA Vol]

We are really good at finding coaches who make it look much harder than I think it actually is. And I’m not saying that it’s easy, but somethings are just dumbfounding - Kiffin turning away Boyd, Dooley burning bridges with half the HS programs below the Mason Dixon line, Butch somehow forgetting that yeah, an S&C program is kind of important in football. I just don’t get it. Actually I do. You get what you pay for.

Dooley and Jones were paid above-market and got nice pay bumps for coming to UT. Jones got nice bumps for his Cincy staffers, too. They just weren't the caliber of coaches we needed. You're right-- you get what you pay for, and we should have hired up, instead of trying to mine for diamonds in the rough. We got CZs.

 

[Devo182]

i think Mullen is butch jones. and i'm fine with that. all fluff no substance. hope they keep him for at least 5 years. this will be hte easiest thing to use against FL in recruiting, like ever.

FSU and Miami and the rest of the SEC east will make sure this never dies down. mama and papa gonna hear about this everytime they sit down with an opposing coach.....

but he won more in year 1 than Butch ever did. Ain't that the most substancey substance of it all?

I could care less at this point if my coach is a goof ball or a hardazz. SOMEBODY JUST WIN DANGIT!

 

[jakez4ut]

My point was that UF doesn't let their program go too far south before fixing it-- i.e., terminating the one causing it to go southward.

In McElwain's first year, he went 10-2/7-1, won the SECE and was COTY. He lost to rival UT in Year 2, but STILL went 9-3/6-2 and won the SECE. In Year 3, he beat UT but lost to LSU and aTm by 1 and 2 points... then lost to rival UGA 7-42, and UF fired him that day. Three SEC losses in three weeks, with the shark photo in the middle of it, and UF cut their losses halfway through the season. McElwain was 3-4/3-3 in the SEC during his half of it. He beat his top East rivals, UT and UGA, 2 out of his 3 years.

During Butch's tenure at UT, he won the SECE 0 times, suffered many blowout losses and went 1-4 against UF, 2-3 against UGA, 0-5 against Bama and 2-3 against Vandy. That's 3-12 against our top 3 rivals in five years.

So I've looked deeper and my conclusion is the same-- UF acts swiftly to stop their program from declining, while UT has shown the tendency to flounder around before being forced to act.

Yeah I can see that... They've definitely been more of the mindset that says "if it needs to be done inevitability, do it immediately" whereas we seemed to hope a little more, at least with Jones.

That and just in general our overall leadership situation was in flux and just not very good....


I think that's different now.

 

[Devo182]

It's like being down $995 at the poker table and push that last $5.00 in. "This is the hand I'm going to turn it all around." Don't know when to take your losses and move on.

Should have reupped to a full stack at $900 Rule #1 - always keep a full stack.

But the $995 is a sunk cost - shouldn't determine how you proceed. You either still have an edge (which is why you're in the game to begin with) or you have lost your edge (new competitors or you are on tilt) and should quit or change tables.

 

[Devo182]

Wanna bet Steele gets his waiver before either Solomon or Gibbs? I'd say it's a near certainty.

All depends on when they are submitted. Doesn't sound like we have submitted ours yet.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Just win baby, that's all it comes down to. In the last 3 years UF & Georgia are the only eastern teams to have averaged higher rated classes per 24/7. There is no excuse for UT to not win as much as other teams in the SEC have been winning, zero.

Pruitt & co. are now entering year 2, but they're working on their 3rd recruiting class. If he's a good coach then it's put up or shut up time. Should see 2+ more wins in year 2 especially with this schedule. And by year 3 he needs to win 8+ or have a damn good reason he didn't.

I like the staff but I'm just sick of the excuses. Lots of coaches are out there winning 8 games a season with far less talent and making less than Pruitt.

(based on 2018 information ranked by yearly base pay)
26. Pruitt
28. Kyle Whittingham 9-5 (6-3) - won 7 games in year 2
31. Pat Fitzgerald 9-5 (8-1) - won 6 games in year 2
32. Dana Holgorsen 8-4 (6-3) - won 10 games in year 1 & 7 in year 2
34. P.J. Fleck 7-6 (3-6) - year 2 with Minnesota
37. Matt Campbell 8-5 (6-3) - won 8 games at ISU in year 2, and 9 in year 2 at Toldeo
38. Mike Leach 11-2 (7-2) - won 6 games in year 2 at WSU, 7 in year 1 & 2 at TTU
43. Dave Doeren 9-4 (5-3) - won 8 games in year 2 at NCSU
49. Mike Norvell 8-6 (5-3) - has won at least 8 games every year as a HC

Sure they aren't in the SEC, but none of them have the type of recruiting classes UT has managed either. I guess my patience with the constant excuses we as fans seem to be given has just worn me out. Numbers don't lie, coaches do. A good head coach can win in year 2, regardless of how "small" or "weak" their players supposedly are, I get it's the SEC but every year we should have 6 "give me" games on our schedule, every single season there should be 6 games that are absolute you go win these games based on where this program recruits at.

/rant

 

[Devo182]

What's weird is I completely agree but perception says I shouldn't.
The last 2 FL coaches lasted 3 yrs and 4 yrs.
The last 2 TN coaches lasted 3 yrs and 5 yrs.
1 season difference and they're viewed as terminators and us as floundering around.
You have to look deeper at the wins and losses. Mac got an extra year after losing to TN. Jones got another year after peaking at 8 and still losing to Vandy.

imo difference is during that span UF won 2 east titles, plus an 11 win season under Muschamp that also would have gotten him to Atlanta literally any other season but that one.

 

[Z06VolinWV]

Cool story bro time...
My son was invited to play at a Diamond Savage fb camp, and when we met the coach I had a Vol shirt on. He is from Knoxville, went to Webb HS. He ended up playing 4 years at Marshall. Great dude!
Now back to sitting in pissing rain watching football! Cheers!

 

[jakez4ut]

Just win baby, that's all it comes down to. In the last 3 years UF & Georgia are the only eastern teams to have averaged higher rated classes per 24/7. There is no excuse for UT to not win as much as other teams in the SEC have been winning, zero.

Pruitt & co. are now entering year 2, but they're working on their 3rd recruiting class. If he's a good coach then it's put up or shut up time. Should see 2+ more wins in year 2 especially with this schedule. And by year 3 he needs to win 8+ or have a damn good reason he didn't.

I like the staff but I'm just sick of the excuses. Lots of coaches are out there winning 8 games a season with far less talent and making less than Pruitt.

(based on 2018 information ranked by yearly base pay)
26. Pruitt
28. Kyle Whittingham 9-5 (6-3) - won 7 games in year 2
31. Pat Fitzgerald 9-5 (8-1) - won 6 games in year 2
32. Dana Holgorsen 8-4 (6-3) - won 10 games in year 1 & 7 in year 2
34. P.J. Fleck 7-6 (3-6) - year 2 with Minnesota
37. Matt Campbell 8-5 (6-3) - won 8 games at ISU in year 2, and 9 in year 2 at Toldeo
38. Mike Leach 11-2 (7-2) - won 6 games in year 2 at WSU, 7 in year 1 & 2 at TTU
43. Dave Doeren 9-4 (5-3) - won 8 games in year 2 at NCSU
49. Mike Norvell 8-6 (5-3) - has won at least 8 games every year as a HC

Sure they aren't in the SEC, but none of them have the type of recruiting classes UT has managed either. I guess my patience with the constant excuses we as fans seem to be given has just worn me out. Numbers don't lie, coaches do. A good head coach can win in year 2, regardless of how "small" or "weak" their players supposedly are, I get it's the SEC but every year we should have 6 "give me" games on our schedule, every single season there should be 6 games that are absolute you go win these games based on where this program recruits at.

/rant

The merit of this is fine...I just have no idea where the "put up our shut up" talk comes from.

It's year 2.

It's far from that kinda talk needing to be done.

Not sure why we can't just leave it at "winning 7 games would show progress"

And if we don't... Where dues the shut up fit? Fire him?

It's just not ultimatum time.

 

[SweetasSoda]

Wanna bet Steele gets his waiver before either Solomon or Gibbs? I'd say it's a near certainty.

I've stopped trying to figure out how they will rule.

 

[chargervol]

My point was that UF doesn't let their program go too far south before fixing it-- i.e., terminating the one causing it to go southward.

In McElwain's first year, he went 10-2/7-1, won the SECE and was COTY. He lost to rival UT in Year 2, but STILL went 9-3/6-2 and won the SECE. In Year 3, he beat UT but lost to LSU and aTm by 1 and 2 points... then lost to rival UGA 7-42, and UF fired him that day. Three SEC losses in three weeks, with the shark photo in the middle of it, and UF cut their losses halfway through the season. McElwain was 3-4/3-3 in the SEC during his half of it. He beat his top East rivals, UT and UGA, 2 out of his 3 years.

During Butch's tenure at UT, he won the SECE 0 times, suffered many blowout losses and went 1-4 against UF, 2-3 against UGA, 0-5 against Bama and 2-3 against Vandy. That's 3-12 against our top 3 rivals in five years.

So I've looked deeper and my conclusion is the same-- UF acts swiftly to stop their program from declining, while UT has shown the tendency to flounder around before being forced to act.

I honestly can't tell if you realize that I was agreeing with you or not?
2 quick things I said in my post that seems to have gone unnoticed?

1. I said I completely agree after you look deeper at the wins.Despite the perception.

2. I also pointed out that Jones peaked at 8 regular season and was losing Vandy level competition.

I almost feel like I just got debated for agreeing with you and pointing out why.

 

[UTMVol76]

I love the words that come out of kids mouths.

We’re driving down the road just a minute ago and Dwight Yoakams “Thousand Miles from Nowhere” comes over the radio.

My 9 year old boy says, “I hope that’s where Butch Jones is after what he did in 2017.”

I Lol’d

 

[SweetasSoda]

What's weird is I completely agree but perception says I shouldn't.
The last 2 FL coaches lasted 3 yrs and 4 yrs.
The last 2 TN coaches lasted 3 yrs and 5 yrs.
1 season difference and they're viewed as terminators and us as floundering around.
You have to look deeper at the wins and losses. Mac got an extra year after losing to TN. Jones got another year after peaking at 8 and still losing to Vandy.

Talk about perception....It really seemed like we drug it out much longer.

 

[SweetasSoda]

To be fair in those 7 years the Gators also tied or won the East 3 times, also reached 10 win seasons 3 times, UF was also 6-1 against UT in that 7 year period.

Butch & Dooley combined for 18-43 in the SEC, with only 1 season in 8 years above 500 in conference. McElwain & Muschamp in their 7 years went 33-23. With one less season they nearly doubled our in conference win totals.

Guess that's why it seemed so much longer.

 

[Devo182]

Most of, pretty much all of, the players that he brought in those two huge classes aren't on the roster any more.

If you're judging the talent level it's really the last three classes, not past 5. And the best of those three is the most recent.

Unless you just wanna compare average class rank... Which is fine, but a 5 year average just doesn't tell the story...

Attrition rate was astronomical on those two classes.

And youth and inexperienced do count for something... Especially when you're in a position like us where you are going to have to count on several of these incoming freshmen to contribute or start.... That they may be the best option says a lot about the overall talent currently on the roster.

So while the talent level technically increases... It doesn't automatically equal production.


All that said, I do totally agree that we should expect improvement... It's year two there will be development for returning guys from last year and the ee's. And I think that +2 games is reasonable.

I just think the talent argument based on ratings is way overlayed in regards to what anyone should expect results wise this year.... Especially when the best class we've had the last three is the most recent one... Gimme 2 or three classes like this last one and the development that comes with it and I'm way more inclined to agree with you.

The best ranking for each team based on who remains on the roster is 247's team talent composite imo.

As of 2018, UF is an immaterial 10 points ahead of us. Ranked 12th and we are 15th, but the actual point difference is meaningless. We actually had a higher average, however small. To put into context how small a 10 point gap is...we are 138 points behind UGA...

I think we may move up a little this year with our new recruits, transfers, and UF's attrition.

 

[Devo182]

Yeah I can see that... They've definitely been more of the mindset that says "if it needs to be done inevitability, do it immediately" whereas we seemed to hope a little more, at least with Jones.

That and just in general our overall leadership situation was in flux and just not very good....


I think that's different now.

My own POV is both programs sort of knew their guy was not "the guy" at some point and took approptiate action roughly 1 year later, once it was seen as reasonable by the public. We probably realized around Bama-USC 2016. They probably knew after getting cremated in back to back SECCGs. So, at that point, each was getting ready to let him go at a reasonable point. I think both acted similarly. The main difference in their 3 and our 5 year timeline was that Mcelwain hit his peak off the bat. Butch was slowly building up. I really see no difference in our mindset toward letting our guy go, we were just forced to wait longer before we could fully realize where we stood.

Mullen is setting himself up for a similar fate as Mcelwain. 10 wins was probably his peak. UGA will continue to batter him and we should take 1 out of the next 2. Gatahs won't stand for that.

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

I love the words that come out of kids mouths.

We’re driving down the road just a minute ago and Dwight Yoakams “Thousand Miles from Nowhere” comes over the radio.

My 9 year old boy says, “I hope that’s where Butch Jones is after what he did in 2017.”

I Lol’d

Butch is in Tuscaloosa, so that’s a true statement in some ways.

 

[chargervol]

Talk about perception....It really seemed like we drug it out much longer.

Amen. And the perception to the outside world was that we fired almost as quickly as UF. But like I was trying to say to LA, once you dug deeper, we all knew there was losses that shouldn't have been, despite the perception.

ESPN basically scolded us for hot seat toll in 2016.