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#42,702
#42,702
Orange_Crush said:
ESPN Announcement Lee Corso
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oh-yeah.gif
 
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#42,709
#42,709
Weezer said:
Of course, grandpa falls for it.
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Young woman here did also, because I asked earlier (thanks to all that answered 😒). Seriously, ESPN has been slowly weeding him out for a few years. Honestly, he will be missed on that show. Who is left worth watching? Guest picker sometimes, Rece Davis and what’s left of what my mom always called him, ‘crater face’ but she never misses game day because of him. Me also. Traditions.
 
#42,710
#42,710
Orangeredblooded said:
Young woman here did also, because I asked earlier (thanks to all that answered 😒). Seriously, ESPN has been slowly weeding him out for a few years. Honestly, he will be missed on that show. Who is left worth watching? Guest picker sometimes, Rece Davis and what’s left of what my mom always called him, ‘crater face’ but she never misses game day because of him. Me also. Traditions.
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McAfee’s brought fresh energy. They’ll be aight.
 
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#42,712
#42,712
Small, Wright Tootsie matchup is a big one this week. The last 3 games we have ran for 226+ in each game. I imagine Bama will be nickel most of the game.
 
#42,713
#42,713
Looking at the Alabama game –

I think it’s important to know something about what goes into computer models and stats. As Tim Banks said to the Knoxville QB club after the Florida win, stats don’t always tell the whole story.

Anyway, Football outsiders ranks offensive and defensive lines. They wait a few weeks into the season so they have a few games to base their analysis on. Their run-blocking analysis includes more than just yards per attempt; among other things they consider TFLs (stuff rate) and short yardage situations (power success rate). After last week’s games they have Alabama’s offensive line’s run blocking ranked 23rd in the nation. They have us for run blocking at #21. They only use sacks to rank pass blocking and I think that’s inadequate. jmo. I think pressures are an important component in evaluating pass protection by the OL. According to CFBstats Alabama’s OL in 6 games has allowed 19 pressures and 9 sacks; Our OL in 5 games has allowed 4 pressures and 8 sacks.

Alabama’s defensive line against the run according to Football Outsiders ranks 11th in the nation. Ours DL against the run ranks 13th best in the nation. Against the pass Alabama’s DL has generated 26 hurries and 21 sacks (6 games); Our DL is credited with 43 hurries and 15 sacks through 5 games.

We’ve gone up against what were thought to be 3 pretty good defenses in Pittsburgh, Florida, and LSU, none of which were able to appreciably slow down our offense. Florida and LSU had pretty good pass defense efficiency ratings before they played us. Those ratings went down after they faced our offense, which continues its reign as the #1 offense in the country.

LSU's offensive line was ranked 4th best in the nation for run blocking before our visit to Death Valley. Their defensive line was ranked 22nd best against the run before we showed up. We shut down their run game and on offense we ran all over them. The strength of Florida's offense coming into Neyland was their run game. We held every single ball carrier for Florida to no more than 3 yards and change per carry. They had all been averaging 7-8 yards per attempt in their previous games.

Alabama’s defense is giving up 12.5 ppg; ours is yielding 17.8 ppg, 2.0 points better than my preseason projection.

Based on the computer models I said in the preseason and through our early games that I thought we had a decent chance to get to the Alabama game undefeated. I also said in the preseason that the computer models suggested that the Alabama game would be a toss-up game (a one-score game).

Welp. Here we are. FWIW, on paper, all 3 major computer models have this game as essentially a toss-up. Using FPI and a 4.0 HFA (research by Phil Steele) we’re within 5.6 points. Bill Connelly uses 2.5 points for HFA but according to Steele that’s not right, especially for teams like Tennessee. I calculate a SP+ margin of 4.0 points using Steele’s HFA; Connelly has the margin at 5.5 points. Sagarin has the margin at 7.5 points. Sagarin uses 3.0 points for HFA. Both FPI & SP+ have us ranked #7 in their models. Jeff Sagarin has us at #8 in his model. Brian Fremeau has us at #6 in FEI. Kenneth Massey also has us at #6 in his model.

I “complained” about us allowing the attempted comeback by Florida because I knew that would impact the computer models. Winning margin is a variable in those models. Heupel said we would fix that and against LSU he delivered. The models all took notice.

Last week against LSU I thought we had the edge in matchups with every position group. This week it’s likely to be a bit closer on paper. I think whichever team wins the line of scrimmage likely comes out ahead in the game. Alabama struggled against Texas which has the 42nd best DL in the country. We were slowed a bit by Pittsburgh who has the 14th best DL in the country.

Based on performance against our respective schedules so far in the season I think we may have a slight edge on the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. If we can stop the run against Alabama the way Texas did and the way we did against Florida and LSU I think that may decide the ball game. jmo.

In the summer I pointed out that we had a lot more talent than a lot of people were giving us credit for. We’ve had a lot of talent for most of the years we’ve been down. The difference between this team and similar teams over the past decade-plus is coaching and so far that has proven to be a huge difference. jmo.

I don’t think we’ve played a bad game yet this year but I also don’t think we’ve played our best game yet either. Heupel says we’ve found a way each week so far to be the better team on the field. I think there’s a lot of people expecting us to win on Saturday and a lot of people wanting us to win on Saturday. The Alabama fans are saying without Bryce Young they’re in trouble. I’m not sure he will help them that much even if he is available. I have a neighbor who is a die-hard Georgia fan and the only team they are worried about this year is Tennessee. In 2015 & 2016 we had a lot of potential but didn’t deliver and I don’t think Alabama in particular took us all that seriously. This year they have definitely taken notice and are more than a bit concerned. I think that is a pretty good indication that Tennessee is back. jmo.
 
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#42,716
#42,716
ChattaTNVol said:
Looking at the Alabama game –

I think it’s important to know something about what goes into computer models and stats. As Tim Banks said to the Knoxville QB club after the Florida win, stats don’t always tell the whole story.

Anyway, Football outsiders ranks offensive and defensive lines. They wait a few weeks into the season so they have a few games to base their analysis on. Their run-blocking analysis includes more than just yards per attempt; among other things they consider TFLs (stuff rate) and short yardage situations (power success rate). After last week’s games they have Alabama’s offensive line’s run blocking ranked 23rd in the nation. They have us for run blocking at #21. They only use sacks to rank pass blocking and I think that’s inadequate. jmo. I think pressures are an important component in evaluating pass protection by the OL. According to CFBstats Alabama’s OL in 6 games has allowed 19 pressures and 9 sacks; Our OL in 5 games has allowed 4 pressures and 8 sacks.

Alabama’s defensive line against the run according to Football Outsiders ranks 11th in the nation. Ours DL against the run ranks 13th best in the nation. Against the pass Alabama’s DL has generated 26 hurries and 21 sacks (6 games); Our DL is credited with 43 hurries and 15 sacks through 5 games.

We’ve gone up against what were thought to be 3 pretty good defenses in Pittsburgh, Florida, and LSU, none of which were able to appreciably slow down our offense. Florida and LSU had pretty good pass defense efficiency ratings before they played us. Those ratings went down after they faced our offense, which continues its reign as the #1 offense in the country.

LSU's offensive line was ranked 4th best in the nation for run blocking before our visit to Death Valley. Their defensive line was ranked 22nd best against the run before we showed up. We shut down their run game and on offense we ran all over them. The strength of Florida's offense coming into Neyland was their run game. We held every single ball carrier for Florida to no more than 3 yards and change per carry. They had all been averaging 7-8 yards per attempt in their previous games.

Alabama’s defense is giving up 12.5 ppg; ours is yielding 17.8 ppg, 2.0 points better than my preseason projection.

Based on the computer models I said in the preseason and through our early games that I thought we had a decent chance to get to the Alabama game undefeated. I also said in the preseason that the computer models suggested that the Alabama game would be a toss-up game (a one-score game).

Welp. Here we are. FWIW, on paper, all 3 major computer models have this game as essentially a toss-up. Using FPI and a 4.0 HFA (research by Phil Steele) we’re within 5.6 points. Bill Connelly uses 2.5 points for HFA but according to Steele that’s not right, especially for teams like Tennessee. I calculate a SP+ margin of 4.0 points using Steele’s HFA; Connelly has the margin at 5.5 points. Sagarin has the margin at 7.5 points. Sagarin uses 3.0 points for HFA. Both FPI & SP+ have us ranked #7 in their models. Jeff Sagarin has us at #8 in his model. Brian Fremeau has us at #6 in FEI. Kenneth Massey also has us at #6 in his model.

I “complained” about us allowing the attempted comeback by Florida because I knew that would impact the computer models. Winning margin is a variable in those models. Heupel said we would fix that and against LSU he delivered. The models all took notice.

Last week against LSU I thought we had the edge in matchups with every position group. This week it’s likely to be a bit closer on paper. I think whichever team wins the line of scrimmage likely comes out ahead in the game. Alabama struggled against Texas which has the 42nd best DL in the country. We were slowed a bit by Pittsburgh who has the 14th best DL in the country.

Based on performance against our respective schedules so far in the season I think we may have a slight edge on the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. If we can stop the run against Alabama the way Texas did and the way we did against Florida and LSU I think that may decide the ball game. jmo.

In the summer I pointed out that we had a lot more talent than a lot of people were giving us credit for. We’ve had a lot of talent for most of the years we’ve been down. The difference between this team and similar teams over the past decade-plus is coaching and so far that has proven to be a huge difference. jmo.

I don’t think we’ve played a bad game yet this year but I also don’t think we’ve played our best game yet either. Heupel says we’ve found a way each week so far to be the better team on the field. I think there’s a lot of people expecting us to win on Saturday and a lot of people wanting us to win on Saturday. The Alabama fans are saying without Bryce Young they’re in trouble. I’m not sure he will help them that much even if he is available. I have a neighbor who is a die-hard Georgia fan and the only team they are worried about this year is Tennessee. In 2015 & 2016 we had a lot of potential but didn’t deliver and I don’t think Alabama in particular took us all that seriously. This year they have definitely taken notice and are more than a bit concerned. I think that is a pretty good indication that Tennessee is back. jmo.
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Good post ChattaTnVol
 
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#42,718
#42,718
ChattaTNVol said:
Looking at the Alabama game –

I think it’s important to know something about what goes into computer models and stats. As Tim Banks said to the Knoxville QB club after the Florida win, stats don’t always tell the whole story.

Anyway, Football outsiders ranks offensive and defensive lines. They wait a few weeks into the season so they have a few games to base their analysis on. Their run-blocking analysis includes more than just yards per attempt; among other things they consider TFLs (stuff rate) and short yardage situations (power success rate). After last week’s games they have Alabama’s offensive line’s run blocking ranked 23rd in the nation. They have us for run blocking at #21. They only use sacks to rank pass blocking and I think that’s inadequate. jmo. I think pressures are an important component in evaluating pass protection by the OL. According to CFBstats Alabama’s OL in 6 games has allowed 19 pressures and 9 sacks; Our OL in 5 games has allowed 4 pressures and 8 sacks.

Alabama’s defensive line against the run according to Football Outsiders ranks 11th in the nation. Ours DL against the run ranks 13th best in the nation. Against the pass Alabama’s DL has generated 26 hurries and 21 sacks (6 games); Our DL is credited with 43 hurries and 15 sacks through 5 games.

We’ve gone up against what were thought to be 3 pretty good defenses in Pittsburgh, Florida, and LSU, none of which were able to appreciably slow down our offense. Florida and LSU had pretty good pass defense efficiency ratings before they played us. Those ratings went down after they faced our offense, which continues its reign as the #1 offense in the country.

LSU's offensive line was ranked 4th best in the nation for run blocking before our visit to Death Valley. Their defensive line was ranked 22nd best against the run before we showed up. We shut down their run game and on offense we ran all over them. The strength of Florida's offense coming into Neyland was their run game. We held every single ball carrier for Florida to no more than 3 yards and change per carry. They had all been averaging 7-8 yards per attempt in their previous games.

Alabama’s defense is giving up 12.5 ppg; ours is yielding 17.8 ppg, 2.0 points better than my preseason projection.

Based on the computer models I said in the preseason and through our early games that I thought we had a decent chance to get to the Alabama game undefeated. I also said in the preseason that the computer models suggested that the Alabama game would be a toss-up game (a one-score game).

Welp. Here we are. FWIW, on paper, all 3 major computer models have this game as essentially a toss-up. Using FPI and a 4.0 HFA (research by Phil Steele) we’re within 5.6 points. Bill Connelly uses 2.5 points for HFA but according to Steele that’s not right, especially for teams like Tennessee. I calculate a SP+ margin of 4.0 points using Steele’s HFA; Connelly has the margin at 5.5 points. Sagarin has the margin at 7.5 points. Sagarin uses 3.0 points for HFA. Both FPI & SP+ have us ranked #7 in their models. Jeff Sagarin has us at #8 in his model. Brian Fremeau has us at #6 in FEI. Kenneth Massey also has us at #6 in his model.

I “complained” about us allowing the attempted comeback by Florida because I knew that would impact the computer models. Winning margin is a variable in those models. Heupel said we would fix that and against LSU he delivered. The models all took notice.

Last week against LSU I thought we had the edge in matchups with every position group. This week it’s likely to be a bit closer on paper. I think whichever team wins the line of scrimmage likely comes out ahead in the game. Alabama struggled against Texas which has the 42nd best DL in the country. We were slowed a bit by Pittsburgh who has the 14th best DL in the country.

Based on performance against our respective schedules so far in the season I think we may have a slight edge on the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. If we can stop the run against Alabama the way Texas did and the way we did against Florida and LSU I think that may decide the ball game. jmo.

In the summer I pointed out that we had a lot more talent than a lot of people were giving us credit for. We’ve had a lot of talent for most of the years we’ve been down. The difference between this team and similar teams over the past decade-plus is coaching and so far that has proven to be a huge difference. jmo.

I don’t think we’ve played a bad game yet this year but I also don’t think we’ve played our best game yet either. Heupel says we’ve found a way each week so far to be the better team on the field. I think there’s a lot of people expecting us to win on Saturday and a lot of people wanting us to win on Saturday. The Alabama fans are saying without Bryce Young they’re in trouble. I’m not sure he will help them that much even if he is available. I have a neighbor who is a die-hard Georgia fan and the only team they are worried about this year is Tennessee. In 2015 & 2016 we had a lot of potential but didn’t deliver and I don’t think Alabama in particular took us all that seriously. This year they have definitely taken notice and are more than a bit concerned. I think that is a pretty good indication that Tennessee is back. jmo.
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Yeah im gonna follow you. So these models basically have us around a top 5 team in 2022. Did the 2016 team rate as well when they were #9 going into play Bama?
 
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#42,720
#42,720
nicksjuzunk said:
The most shocking thing about Oklahoma is this was not a rebuild of a fired coach. This was the rare stable, well stocked, winning program that he stepped into, and it’s an absolute spectacle
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Can’t completely agree. He took some of that “stock” including the QB to USC.
It wasn’t as sweet of a situation as some think.
But I’ve got no sympathy for OU.
 
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