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#42,727
#42,727
ChattaTNVol said:
Looking at the Alabama game –

I think it’s important to know something about what goes into computer models and stats. As Tim Banks said to the Knoxville QB club after the Florida win, stats don’t always tell the whole story.

Anyway, Football outsiders ranks offensive and defensive lines. They wait a few weeks into the season so they have a few games to base their analysis on. Their run-blocking analysis includes more than just yards per attempt; among other things they consider TFLs (stuff rate) and short yardage situations (power success rate). After last week’s games they have Alabama’s offensive line’s run blocking ranked 23rd in the nation. They have us for run blocking at #21. They only use sacks to rank pass blocking and I think that’s inadequate. jmo. I think pressures are an important component in evaluating pass protection by the OL. According to CFBstats Alabama’s OL in 6 games has allowed 19 pressures and 9 sacks; Our OL in 5 games has allowed 4 pressures and 8 sacks.

Alabama’s defensive line against the run according to Football Outsiders ranks 11th in the nation. Ours DL against the run ranks 13th best in the nation. Against the pass Alabama’s DL has generated 26 hurries and 21 sacks (6 games); Our DL is credited with 43 hurries and 15 sacks through 5 games.

We’ve gone up against what were thought to be 3 pretty good defenses in Pittsburgh, Florida, and LSU, none of which were able to appreciably slow down our offense. Florida and LSU had pretty good pass defense efficiency ratings before they played us. Those ratings went down after they faced our offense, which continues its reign as the #1 offense in the country.

LSU's offensive line was ranked 4th best in the nation for run blocking before our visit to Death Valley. Their defensive line was ranked 22nd best against the run before we showed up. We shut down their run game and on offense we ran all over them. The strength of Florida's offense coming into Neyland was their run game. We held every single ball carrier for Florida to no more than 3 yards and change per carry. They had all been averaging 7-8 yards per attempt in their previous games.

Alabama’s defense is giving up 12.5 ppg; ours is yielding 17.8 ppg, 2.0 points better than my preseason projection.

Based on the computer models I said in the preseason and through our early games that I thought we had a decent chance to get to the Alabama game undefeated. I also said in the preseason that the computer models suggested that the Alabama game would be a toss-up game (a one-score game).

Welp. Here we are. FWIW, on paper, all 3 major computer models have this game as essentially a toss-up. Using FPI and a 4.0 HFA (research by Phil Steele) we’re within 5.6 points. Bill Connelly uses 2.5 points for HFA but according to Steele that’s not right, especially for teams like Tennessee. I calculate a SP+ margin of 4.0 points using Steele’s HFA; Connelly has the margin at 5.5 points. Sagarin has the margin at 7.5 points. Sagarin uses 3.0 points for HFA. Both FPI & SP+ have us ranked #7 in their models. Jeff Sagarin has us at #8 in his model. Brian Fremeau has us at #6 in FEI. Kenneth Massey also has us at #6 in his model.

I “complained” about us allowing the attempted comeback by Florida because I knew that would impact the computer models. Winning margin is a variable in those models. Heupel said we would fix that and against LSU he delivered. The models all took notice.

Last week against LSU I thought we had the edge in matchups with every position group. This week it’s likely to be a bit closer on paper. I think whichever team wins the line of scrimmage likely comes out ahead in the game. Alabama struggled against Texas which has the 42nd best DL in the country. We were slowed a bit by Pittsburgh who has the 14th best DL in the country.

Based on performance against our respective schedules so far in the season I think we may have a slight edge on the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. If we can stop the run against Alabama the way Texas did and the way we did against Florida and LSU I think that may decide the ball game. jmo.

In the summer I pointed out that we had a lot more talent than a lot of people were giving us credit for. We’ve had a lot of talent for most of the years we’ve been down. The difference between this team and similar teams over the past decade-plus is coaching and so far that has proven to be a huge difference. jmo.

I don’t think we’ve played a bad game yet this year but I also don’t think we’ve played our best game yet either. Heupel says we’ve found a way each week so far to be the better team on the field. I think there’s a lot of people expecting us to win on Saturday and a lot of people wanting us to win on Saturday. The Alabama fans are saying without Bryce Young they’re in trouble. I’m not sure he will help them that much even if he is available. I have a neighbor who is a die-hard Georgia fan and the only team they are worried about this year is Tennessee. In 2015 & 2016 we had a lot of potential but didn’t deliver and I don’t think Alabama in particular took us all that seriously. This year they have definitely taken notice and are more than a bit concerned. I think that is a pretty good indication that Tennessee is back. jmo.
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Smashing the Like button. Finishing up some number crunching and don’t see a way we lose this game. Though close, all metrics point to a win so far.

More importantly, the best team doesn’t always win in football. It is the team playing its best football when the matchup takes place. We are fresh and absolutely on fire while Bama have played 6 straight, look vulnerable and are headed in the opposite direction. No tasers needed, Vols Win!
 
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#42,731
#42,731
ChattaTNVol said:
Looking at the Alabama game –

I think it’s important to know something about what goes into computer models and stats. As Tim Banks said to the Knoxville QB club after the Florida win, stats don’t always tell the whole story.

Anyway, Football outsiders ranks offensive and defensive lines. They wait a few weeks into the season so they have a few games to base their analysis on. Their run-blocking analysis includes more than just yards per attempt; among other things they consider TFLs (stuff rate) and short yardage situations (power success rate). After last week’s games they have Alabama’s offensive line’s run blocking ranked 23rd in the nation. They have us for run blocking at #21. They only use sacks to rank pass blocking and I think that’s inadequate. jmo. I think pressures are an important component in evaluating pass protection by the OL. According to CFBstats Alabama’s OL in 6 games has allowed 19 pressures and 9 sacks; Our OL in 5 games has allowed 4 pressures and 8 sacks.

Alabama’s defensive line against the run according to Football Outsiders ranks 11th in the nation. Ours DL against the run ranks 13th best in the nation. Against the pass Alabama’s DL has generated 26 hurries and 21 sacks (6 games); Our DL is credited with 43 hurries and 15 sacks through 5 games.

We’ve gone up against what were thought to be 3 pretty good defenses in Pittsburgh, Florida, and LSU, none of which were able to appreciably slow down our offense. Florida and LSU had pretty good pass defense efficiency ratings before they played us. Those ratings went down after they faced our offense, which continues its reign as the #1 offense in the country.

LSU's offensive line was ranked 4th best in the nation for run blocking before our visit to Death Valley. Their defensive line was ranked 22nd best against the run before we showed up. We shut down their run game and on offense we ran all over them. The strength of Florida's offense coming into Neyland was their run game. We held every single ball carrier for Florida to no more than 3 yards and change per carry. They had all been averaging 7-8 yards per attempt in their previous games.

Alabama’s defense is giving up 12.5 ppg; ours is yielding 17.8 ppg, 2.0 points better than my preseason projection.

Based on the computer models I said in the preseason and through our early games that I thought we had a decent chance to get to the Alabama game undefeated. I also said in the preseason that the computer models suggested that the Alabama game would be a toss-up game (a one-score game).

Welp. Here we are. FWIW, on paper, all 3 major computer models have this game as essentially a toss-up. Using FPI and a 4.0 HFA (research by Phil Steele) we’re within 5.6 points. Bill Connelly uses 2.5 points for HFA but according to Steele that’s not right, especially for teams like Tennessee. I calculate a SP+ margin of 4.0 points using Steele’s HFA; Connelly has the margin at 5.5 points. Sagarin has the margin at 7.5 points. Sagarin uses 3.0 points for HFA. Both FPI & SP+ have us ranked #7 in their models. Jeff Sagarin has us at #8 in his model. Brian Fremeau has us at #6 in FEI. Kenneth Massey also has us at #6 in his model.

I “complained” about us allowing the attempted comeback by Florida because I knew that would impact the computer models. Winning margin is a variable in those models. Heupel said we would fix that and against LSU he delivered. The models all took notice.

Last week against LSU I thought we had the edge in matchups with every position group. This week it’s likely to be a bit closer on paper. I think whichever team wins the line of scrimmage likely comes out ahead in the game. Alabama struggled against Texas which has the 42nd best DL in the country. We were slowed a bit by Pittsburgh who has the 14th best DL in the country.

Based on performance against our respective schedules so far in the season I think we may have a slight edge on the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. If we can stop the run against Alabama the way Texas did and the way we did against Florida and LSU I think that may decide the ball game. jmo.

In the summer I pointed out that we had a lot more talent than a lot of people were giving us credit for. We’ve had a lot of talent for most of the years we’ve been down. The difference between this team and similar teams over the past decade-plus is coaching and so far that has proven to be a huge difference. jmo.

I don’t think we’ve played a bad game yet this year but I also don’t think we’ve played our best game yet either. Heupel says we’ve found a way each week so far to be the better team on the field. I think there’s a lot of people expecting us to win on Saturday and a lot of people wanting us to win on Saturday. The Alabama fans are saying without Bryce Young they’re in trouble. I’m not sure he will help them that much even if he is available. I have a neighbor who is a die-hard Georgia fan and the only team they are worried about this year is Tennessee. In 2015 & 2016 we had a lot of potential but didn’t deliver and I don’t think Alabama in particular took us all that seriously. This year they have definitely taken notice and are more than a bit concerned. I think that is a pretty good indication that Tennessee is back. jmo.
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Red every word of this one!! Excellent research and thoughts. Let’s hope our boys can play their best game yet this Saturday. We have to stay clean with mistakes, and PROTECT THE FOOTBALL! We cannot squander scoring opportunities or give them a short field, because of turnovers. I think Heupel has some more wrinkles in store that we haven’t shown yet. It’s an exciting time to be a Tennessee fan, and we deserve every moment of this fun! Let’s get this W Saturday!
 
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#42,732
#42,732
Enki_Amenra said:
Saban Takes Shot at Tennessee/Heupel's Offense
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95Mo.gif
 
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#42,737
#42,737
Hardy said:
I gave my opinion before. Per the statement: The drunk boy did not commit an offense. He made a mistake. He opened the door thinking it was his place. He realized it wasn’t. He shut the door.
He was no longer a threat. There was no legal justification for following him out and beating him.

If he had punched him or shot him dead while he was in his apartment, he would have a legal justifiable defense.
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That's not necessarily the facts of the case though. That's his perspective while intoxicated. Not very sound is it?
 
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#42,739
#42,739
BigSteve09 said:
We are playing with house money.

Win and we have to win in Athens to go to Atlanta.
Lose and we have to win in Athens to go to Atlanta.

Nothing to lose, let's go have fun.

I hope we beat them so bad the fans know we're storming the field and we carry Saban out on our shoulders and throw him into the TN River
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All the pressure on Bama. Since we went to Divisions, GA and FL games just mean more. HH will, as always, play with steady confidence. The moment never seems too big for him. Ditto for Heup, he won't be intimidated by Lord Saban unlike like predecessors. Listening to local radio in both AL and GA, they (hosts and callers) think we are doing it with smoke and mirrors.Time to prove them wrong. Same as UCF vs. Auburn Peach Bowl 2018.
 
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#42,743
#42,743
Orange_Crush said:
OK. Then let's stop making criminals the victim.

If things went down as stated, and the drunk kid was followed outside and assaulted, then the UT football player is a criminal and should be charged.

I'm not sure of the criminal intent of opening a door that you think is the apartment that you just left, apologizing, and leaving. (Remember, we're arguing the assumption that the statement as reported is true.)

My son and daughter-in-law moved into an apartment complex last year. Soon after they moved in, my wife and I went to visit and knocked on the wrong door. Repeatedly. Until a scared couple of older ladies cracked the door behind a chain and asked if they could help us. I apologized profusely. They laughed and said, "You want the white kids upstairs. Seem like nice kids." I said they are and asked them to keep an eye on them for us.

Similar mistake. No harm. No foul.

I'm not sure I'd equate a drunk kid going into the wrong apartment, apologizing and leaving as "making a criminal the victim".

It's a similar mistake as is made all the time in apartment complexes. It's not breaking and entering. And it's not a peeping Tom.

It's a stupid kid.

So, if he's leaving and a UT football player actually did follow him to the landing and punch him down the stairs, committing felonious bodily injury--no matter if the drunk kid inferred he was being a dick--then it's much more of a criminal behavior than being drunk and bad with directions.
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A drunk or high college aged guy walked into my apartment in Gainesville back in 2008. I wasn't home but my wife was. She was 24 at the time and it freaked her out. The guy acted confused and wasn't leaving at first. She lost patience and started yelling at him and pushed him out the door. She had previous experiences of being assaulted by boys/men while a teenager and young adult so the situation activated feelings from past trauma.

I don't think we should be judging how Jalen reacted because we don't know how that situation really went, how it made Jalen feel and any past experiences he or loved ones have had that were similar or how those situations went. Then the guy acts like somehow Jalen is in the wrong and "being a dick about it". Pretty dumb move by the person in the wrong, no matter how benign his attentions may or may not have been.

I can tell you that if that happened in the country and the race of the individuals were reversed that it is very unlikely that the homeowner goes to jail. Take race out of it and it's still unlikely the homeowner goes to jail, assuming that a good police officer arrives (which most are). Who knows what the actual situation was and what the intruders intentions were and how they may or may not have changed upon seeing a jacked, young athlete.

Charges should be dropped for all parties if the intruder did not display criminal intent and let it be a lesson to him on being a responsible drinker, understanding when he is in the wrong (intentional or unintential) and not exacerbating the issue by running his mouth.....especially to a UT athlete that plays a violent sport and whose motto is WGWTFA.
 
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