Recruiting Forum Football Talk V

[RikidyBones]

We've all seen the stadium on Gameday. There is only one of you. Burner accounts verified.

The Miami population is trash. Can't argue that.

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

 

[Devo182]

Merry Christmas Eve all. May the next 36 hours fly by!

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

Game metrics –

Someone about a month ago asked if I could post some of the metrics during the season this year that I’ve been posting in the offseason. This is what I’ve come up with.

Obviously what is offense for one team is defense for the other.

1D+TD as a percentage of total offensive plays to show how efficient an offense is.

X-run % - to show what percentage of run plays were explosive (10+ yards).

X-pass % - to show what percentage of pass plays were explosive (20+ yards).

X-total % - percentage of total plays that were explosive.

Havoc % - percentage of defensive plays that were either TFLs, PBU, Ints, or Forced Fumbles.

Pass Rush % - percentage of pass plays that were either sacks or QB hurries.

I’ve used the Vandy/Hawaii and Northwestern/Nebraska games as examples. I figured it might be of interest to post the information for some of the matchups of our future opponents as well as for our own games, for example, Pitt/WVU, UF/Utah, FSU/LSU, and UF/UK, etc.

I didn't include returning production because as you can imagine the value of that tends to wane as you get farther into the season. It can however be of significant importance starting out the season, for example, Vandy was ranked #45 for returning production and Hawaii was ranked #131. Northwestern was at #58 and Nebraska was at #100.

I also didn't include 3rd down information because that information is published everywhere and can sometimes not tell a lot about the efficiency of the offense, for example, last year against Georgia we converted 45% of our 3rd downs and 48% of our 3D+4D; Georgia only converted 33.3% of their 3Ds and never went for it on 4D. So we did pretty good. On 1D+TD Georgia's offensive efficiency was 44.3% and ours was 28.6%, which, everything else being equal, might be a better representation of how our offenses fared against each other that game. jmo.

Let me know if you have any feedback. Thanks.


View attachment 485336

I still can’t get out of my head the trend post from yesterday. It put a little damper on things for me. I hope it is completely inaccurate!! We do not need to take even a small step back with what we have on this roster. We should be taking a gigantic leap forward.

 

[Big Orange#1]

I still can’t get out of my head the trend post from yesterday. It put a little damper on things for me. I hope it is completely inaccurate!! We do not need to take even a small step back with what we have on this roster. We should be taking a gigantic leap forward.

Just wait till after this year to worry about it. You can’t include the first year at a new program that was a dumpster fire with 70 scholarship players in a trend IMO.

 

[franklinpence]

I still can’t get out of my head the trend post from yesterday. It put a little damper on things for me. I hope it is completely inaccurate!! We do not need to take even a small step back with what we have on this roster. We should be taking a gigantic leap forward.

@ChattaTNVol

 

[Enki_Amenra]

I still can’t get out of my head the trend post from yesterday. It put a little damper on things for me. I hope it is completely inaccurate!! We do not need to take even a small step back with what we have on this roster. We should be taking a gigantic leap forward.

It is accurate, but is not probable. It's hard to maintain consistent 1 loss, or undefeated, teams, year after year. Lose 1 game, then next year 2, then 3 in the 3rd year. . . 9-3 or 8-4isnt terrible considering covid year and players lost etc, I think it's unlikely that the probability of that trend continues.

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

Have you ever looked him dead in the eye and said, "You wouldn't be the first person I made disappear."?

I tell a story of the abilities of feral pigs here in Texas. They will even eat the bags that the body is stored in. Total elimination of the body and all evidence that a crime has been committed.

Corpus delicti is a common law Latin phrase that translates to “body of the crime.” The phrase generally refers to the principle that no one should be convicted of a crime without sufficient evidence that the crime actually occurred.



Luckily for the teenager male population of Southlake, my daughter is a pretty good judge of character. As she has told me when I asked how she decides if she’s going to go on a date with a particular guy; she immediately says no if she thinks that I would kill the boy.

Quite frankly, it’s probably better this way.

 

[Ericvol2096]

One Day BROTHERS!!!!

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

Yep. They can’t recruit Texas anymore. Previously your family could see tons on games playing all the Texas and Oklahoma schools. Not anymore. I don’t think is possible they can be a powerhouse again. Good but never sustained greatness. Look at their surrounding recruiting states

View attachment 484227

USC and UCLA should see what happened to Nebraska joining the B1G. Has totally destroyed the whole state. Not that I care about them, but Nebraska’s fate is definitely a cautionary tale.

My hope is that the same tale is told about texas and oklahoma in 10 years. Shoulda stayed the big fish in a small pond. Rather than thinking that they could thrive in the SEC.

They will see this every week, but without the Hail Mary success at the end of the game:

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

Not being able to beat out JG2 should have made us all realize that Bailey peaked in HS and it was probably due to having multiple D1 level players around him. In the end, his game was just too slow in making reads, throwing motion and moving in the pocket to be a modern QB at a high level.

I think that pruitt is a football intelligence and ability vampire. He took everything good from those players. Most that stayed have had significant increases in talent through good coaching.
Those that left stayed drained of talent.

 

[TheRain]

 

[Vols2DaWall]

Soooo ready for tomorrow

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

Thanks! 39

Dang it, another VN teenager.

 

[SoilVol]

I still can’t get out of my head the trend post from yesterday. It put a little damper on things for me. I hope it is completely inaccurate!! We do not need to take even a small step back with what we have on this roster. We should be taking a gigantic leap forward.

This is why context matters in statistics. There's no real "trend" here when context is considered. This false "trend" was pointed out as a criticism when he was hired and for some reason it's getting repeated. He took over an extremely talented undefeated team his first season, went undefeated before losing in the Fiesta Bowl. That year the conference was fairly weak, with only UCF and Cincy ranked. They played to their expectation.

His second season they won 10 games and their conference had 4 ranked teams (Navy, Cincy, Memphis, UCF). They lost star QB Milton for the season and rolled with a true freshman. Easy to say they outperformed themselves with that situation.

Then they had a rebuilding year in 2020. This probably was a combination of recruiting class attrition from when Frost left and upperclassmen graduating. Covid also disrupted the season. They had to drop out of conference games, had multiple players opt-out, had a complete halt to fall practice due to UCF athletes expressing concerns with the AD. They went 6-4, beating Georgia Tech in Atlanta, losing to #7 Cincy (by 3), Tulsa, Memphis (by 1). Then lost to #16 BYU in a bowl. They were scheduled to play UNC and FIU and one other team. They could've beaten all three. Would have to call that a scratch.

The Heupel comes to Knoxville and everyone expected him to not win more than 4 games. We saw what he was able to put together. We went bowling. We outperformed expectation, and played above our means because of roster/depth issues and no cohesion prior to him coming. Went 7-6.

Based on the roster we have coming back, improved depth and leadership. Then looking at the schedule, the Vols should win between 7-10 games. 10 would be above expectation. 7 would be probably just below.

Then in 2023 I would expect a slight dip, then rise in 24, 25, and 26.

 

[volinokc]

USC and UCLA should see what happened to Nebraska joining the B1G. Has totally destroyed the whole state. Not that I care about them, but Nebraska’s fate is definitely a cautionary tale.

My hope is that the same tale is told about texas and oklahoma in 10 years. Shoulda stayed the big fish in a small pond. Rather than thinking that they could thrive in the SEC.

They will see this every week, but without the Hail Mary success at the end of the game:

View attachment 485346View attachment 485347

Amen

 

[Girth Brooks]

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

This is why context matters in statistics. There's no real "trend" here when context is considered. This false "trend" was pointed out as a criticism when he was hired and for some reason it's getting repeated. He took over an extremely talented undefeated team his first season, went undefeated before losing in the Fiesta Bowl. That year the conference was fairly weak, with only UCF and Cincy ranked. They played to their expectation.

His second season they won 10 games and their conference had 4 ranked teams (Navy, Cincy, Memphis, UCF). They lost star QB Milton for the season and rolled with a true freshman. Easy to say they outperformed themselves with that situation.

Then they had a rebuilding year in 2020. This probably was a combination of recruiting class attrition from when Frost left and upperclassmen graduating. Covid also disrupted the season. They had to drop out of conference games, had multiple players opt-out, had a complete halt to fall practice due to UCF athletes expressing concerns with the AD. They went 6-4, beating Georgia Tech in Atlanta, losing to #7 Cincy (by 3), Tulsa, Memphis (by 1). Then lost to #16 BYU in a bowl. They were scheduled to play UNC and FIU and one other team. They could've beaten all three. Would have to call that a scratch.

The Heupel comes to Knoxville and everyone expected him to not win more than 4 games. We saw what he was able to put together. We went bowling. We outperformed expectation, and played above our means because of roster/depth issues and no cohesion prior to him coming. Went 7-6.

Based on the roster we have coming back, improved depth and leadership. Then looking at the schedule, the Vols should win between 7-10 games. 10 would be above expectation. 7 would be probably just below.

Then in 2023 I would expect a slight dip, then rise in 24, 25, and 26.

Yeah this sounds MUCH better! I’m back to 15-0!

 

[Pacer92]

RIP former Vol Steve White

Former NFL defensive end Steve White dies at 48 | Fox News

 

[KptVFL]

RIP former Vol Steve White

Former NFL defensive end Steve White dies at 48 | Fox News

So young

 

[bignewt]

why is allvols.com sending me an email that I have to log on there to get my tickets when I already have my tickets through ticketmaster? Then I go log in and it says I have no tickets there on allvols.com.

I have my tickets thank you very much. So weird. Anyone else get that email?

 

[Paper_Towel]

Watched NOPE last night. If you like sci-fi horror you won’t be disappointed watching it.

 

[TheRain]

 

[BubbaWms]

One Day BROTHERS!!!!

and SISTERS!!!!

GBO

 

[SSVol]

Tri Cities is growing fast. Ppl are moving in from all over.
Jonesborough, Limestone and Greene Co. are nice places. I also prefer rural over towns. East TN is growing houses faster that potatoes.

And it's super annoying.