Recruiting Forum Football Talk VI

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#40,177
#40,177
Devo182 said:
Same way USCjr "couldn't beat us".

Comes down to cumulative odds. Just like how we almost lost to Pitt and somehow could have even lost to UF at the end.

A&M, UF, UK, USCjr may not be favorites individually, but each has their own 20-40% chance (let's just say for easy maths). So cumulatively it would be likely we would lose to one of them (75% chance if we give each of them a 30% chance to win, equal to a 7 pt underdog, as the gators are in way-too-early spreads). And losing 2 isn't out of the window, though a lot less likely. Could throw Mizzou in there too with maybe a 10-20% shot(?). The odds are we'll drop one of those 5 and it could come from the least likely like USCjr was...those things can just happen in sports.


I'm steady on 9-3 as most likely. So anything from 11-1 to 7-5 is within the floor-to-ceiling normal distribution range. Hoping for the former.
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7-5 is only possible if literally everyone underperforms and crazy injuries happen.

12-0 is the ceiling in the regular season. 9-3 is the floor.

A&M being the only team that can really match up with us because of their talent at the line of scrimmage.

Yeah I get the odds against winning every game you're favored in is low and I get how seasons unfold in unexpected ways.

I just seem to have more faith in our personnel compared to others here.

Because the odds also favor our defense improving and our offensive being unstoppable again.
 
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#40,178
#40,178
Enki_Amenra said:
If I had to pick 3 games I grew up with as entertainment while stranded on a tropical island. . .

1 Goldeneye. . .
2 Mario Kart. . . (only if stranded with other people)
2b Fallout 3
3 Ea football?

3rd is hard to say. . . maybe something like a metroid prime game. . .
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Mike Tyson's Punch Out. Always go back to that one.
 
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#40,179
#40,179
Enki_Amenra said:
If I had to pick 3 games I grew up with as entertainment while stranded on a tropical island. . .

1 Goldeneye. . .
2 Mario Kart. . . (only if stranded with other people)
2b Fallout 3
3 Ea football?

3rd is hard to say. . . maybe something like a metroid prime game. . .
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Where would you get the electricity? Or a TV? Are you the Professor from Gilligan's Island or something?
 
#40,180
#40,180
If you were playing Bama in basketball, would it be unsportsmanlike to call Brandon Miller "killa", or ask him if he really didn't know what was going to happen?
 
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#40,195
#40,195
Enki_Amenra said:
A&M is set up to have a big turnaround season. We lost to a USCe team we should've smoked. Florida is Florida. UK should be a win. It's not certain we win all those games. If we split them and have possible losses for UGA & Bama, that's 4 losses.

4 losses, based on where we were when Heupel was hired is progress. Even though it's not as good as year2, it is still better or on par with where we should be in Y3.
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A&M feels like LSU again. They'll have some magical season, just because.

And I'm not just spouting our "bad luck vs West rotation opponents" theory - Jimbo actually went out and hired an elite offensive mind in Petrino (IF he can actually let go for real) and those 5*s from his big recruiting class will be Sophomores (or whatever is left of them - while they didn't lose any 5*s, they lost a whopping 14 4*s...). Perfect storm for them to actually be good.

Question will be Weigman. He was efficient last year, but very safe. For a freshman, he showed some potential...we'll see what Petrino can do with him.

We should still win imo, but they are a total wildcard.

Edit: Jfc they will have FOUR 5* DL next season. Jeesh. Our OL might have to be the difference maker.
 
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