Recruiting Forum Football Talk VI

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#40,736
#40,736
It’s less than 3 weeks until spring practice starts so I figure maybe it’s time to start getting prepared. First up is a look back at how Bill Connelly’s 2022 SP+ preseason projections for offense and defense and scoring margin held up at the end of the year vs our regular season schedule.

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He underrated our offense by 1.5 points per game and overrated our defense by 0.1 ppg. Fire him! lol.

Florida, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, and Missouri were the 4 most overrated teams on our schedule in the preseason, mostly because all 4 were overrated on offense.

Florida was the most overrated defense we faced, followed by South Carolina, and Alabama’s overrated defense rounded out the top 3.

The two most underrated teams overall that we faced ended up being Ball State and Akron though LSU was also a bit underrated overall. Overall Connelly got Vandy right but everyone else was overrated.

I have to say I actually think Bill did pretty good. I think we could have gone undefeated last year but the Georgia game was never really in the tossup group and South Carolina maybe will be a learning moment for the team/program. Still, I really think we were capable of winning both games; it just wasn’t meant to be, at least not in 2022.

I’ll have more later but at first review I don’t think we have any “sure” losses on our schedule this year, at least not in my model which is based off of Connelly’s SP+. We may have 5 tossups or maybe only 2. It depends on who ends up being overrated or underrated. Preliminarily speaking, I’m thinking both Alabama and Georgia will be tossups this year, Georgia, because they come to Neyland, and Alabama because our game for them will be their 8th game in a row without a break. Two weeks prior to going to Tuscaloosa we have a bye then host A&M before our visit to the netherworld. I think that gives us a scheduling advantage over the tide. For reference, when we played South Carolina last year it was our 7th game without a break.

As noted we get a bye before A&M and we’ll be their 7th game in a row without a break. The only team we have to face for our 7th in a row without a break is Vandy at the end of the year. There’s no other team that has a significant scheduling advantage though Kentucky (as well as Vandy) gets a bye week before their game with us.

We’ve just got to figure out who is going to play where, create some depth, and get ready to roll. We have a lot of returning production, relatively speaking, so that’s good. According to Connelly, there are only 3 teams on our schedule with more returning production, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Vandy.

I think A&M is probably the only one of the 3 with the talent to surprise in 2023 but they’re starting over with new coordinators and Connelly’s model thinks with our having the HFA we could be a 13 point favorite in that game, without even considering our scheduling advantage. All the coaching changes Jimbo made this offseason are big question marks and while we have a new OC nothing for us on offense is expected to change as CJH and CJH have been together long enough not only to be on the same page but just looking at their monikers I can't really tell them apart. jmo.

In 2022 we were elite. The narrative of “Tennessee is back” gained some traction. 2023 looks like it could be shaping up to cement that narrative. jmo.
 
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