Random Notes -
Change in number of plays/game so far this year –
I counted the number of plays for offense only because defensive plays per game in a data set might be different for a given team but in the overall data set the number of offensive plays for all teams and all games will essentially be the same as the number of defensive plays.
Last year offenses showed up 1,672 times (836 games X 2 teams) and played 114,835 snaps. That averages out to 68.68 offensive plays per game per team in 2022.
This year through Saturday, offenses showed up 138 times (69 games) and played on average 66.94 offensive snaps per game per team.
That’s a reduction of 1.73919 offensive plays per game per team or 3.47838 offensive plays per game combined based on limited data.
We ran 85 offensive plays in our game in 27 minutes and 6 seconds (TOP). We were operating at a tempo of 3.1365 plays per minute. Oklahoma ran 82 offensive plays Saturday at a much slower pace than we play. They converted 11 of 13 3rd downs and held their opponent to 2 of 12 on 3rd down and 0 for 1 on 4th down; They dominated time of possession. There are multiple ways to get more possessions and/or plays for your offense which apparently Chip Kelly at UCLA has yet to figure out. jmo.
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In our game the two teams had 14 possessions each. We managed 3.50 points per possession on offense (3.00+ is elite) and on defense we allowed 0.93 points per possession (</=1.50 is elite). ESPN rates our defensive efficiency as #1 in the SEC through week 1, 5th best in the nation.
Heupel was asked today about the impact of the new clock rules and he said and I agree that we probably don’t have enough data yet. I figure by the end of September we’ll have a better idea which is also the time I think we can better assess how good teams are this year. For example in the SEC only LSU, UF, SC, and UT have so far gone up against P5 opponents so I think it’s probably premature to judge our fellow conference members based on how they fared against G5 and FCS opponents. I think after September 30th the picture for this year will begin to really take shape. jmo.
Generally speaking, I think young talented teams often improve as the season progresses and those young guys make mistakes, learn from them, and as the speed of the game slows down in their case. I think improvement is also possible for a team adjusting to a new scheme. For teams less talented and more mature and same scheme it’s not often you see a lot of improvement as the season wears on. In particular, if you have 3rd year guys and above on an offensive line and they struggle out the gate they’re more often than not going to struggle throughout the season. I’m not expecting much improvement from Florida or South Carolina on their OLine from what we saw in week 1. jmo.
In contrast Florida’s defense is pretty talented though they are also pretty young. I think it’s likely to our advantage that we get them sooner rather than later this year. jmo.
I said in the offseason that imo Brian Kelly was overrated. Well he went into Orlando with a roster with 42 blue chips including 22 top 100 players and got embarrassed by an FSU team with 27 blue chips only 3 of which were considered top 100 players. lol
After week 1 we have the #1 defense in the SEC in yards/play, #1 pass defense in yards/game and defensive pass rating. We’re also #1 in punt return yardage and #1 in fewest TFLs allowed. We’re also tied for #1 in offensive redzone conversions. We’re #1 in explosive run plays per game (10+ yards). We’re tied at #1 for passes broken up per game. I’m sure there’s more positives relative to our conference peers vs their week 1 opponents but we still need to see that proverbial jump from week 1 to week 2 if we’re going to have our best shot at winning the East. jmo.
Anyone wanting to see Coach Sanders humbled may not have to wait too long. I noted in the offseason that he had made imo a home-run hire for OC in Sean Lewis. I think that showed up against TCU but it might be worth keeping in mind that TCU was ranked #118 in returning production this year. With the new staff and roster overhaul I thought it might be possible but challenging for Colorado to get bowl eligible this year and at the moment I still think that’s still a stretch. jmo.
Kentucky actually got penalized in the FPI for its performance against Ball State, falling a spot. Florida fell 8 spots, So. Caro. fell 13 spots, Missouri fell 3 spots, and Vandy fell 12 spots. We moved up a couple spots in FBI but are still being held back by the residual Pruitt years impact on our recent history. That hangover will gradually disappear over the next few weeks, at least for this year’s rating. FPI increasingly favors us in all of our games less Alabama and Georgia though after Saturday FBI gives us improved prospects for both of those games as well. Right now we appear to be in good shape and just need to continue improving game-by-game as we work our way towards Atlanta. jmo.
And, really, I think Ross will be fine. Heup's remarks seem right to me.
