Recruiting Forum Football Talk XXIX

[McGeesPub]

I've been poo-pood on by much better, to be sure.

The problem is that when you look at these numbers over a long enough timeline you begin to see very clearly that what most people consider to be determining factors in football, simply aren't. Using only these numbers you can arrive at a 70% prediction rate. That means that literally every other variable you can imagine falls within the 30% of the time the numbers don't work.

coaching.

attrition.

weather.

home-field advantage (very real).

Gruden's tie color.

Those all could arguably account for the 30% of the time the evaluations don't work, and I get that. But, talent averages alone can account for the other 70%.

EDIT: since 2005 (the farthest back this data goes) there has only been 1 time in a national championship game that a team with a worse talent average has won the game. Talent is almost a 100% predictor in national championship games.

Subtle dig aside, I'm curious, do these projections take into account a class rank at the time of the signing day, an adjusted class rank to account for transfers, etc, or each individual player's recruiting ranking at the time the model is run?

 

[theutvolunteers]

I've been poo-pood on by much better, to be sure.

The problem is that when you look at these numbers over a long enough timeline you begin to see very clearly that what most people consider to be determining factors in football, simply aren't. Using only these numbers you can arrive at a 70% prediction rate. That means that literally every other variable you can imagine falls within the 30% of the time the numbers don't work.

coaching.

attrition.

weather.

home-field advantage (very real).

Gruden's tie color.

Those all could arguably account for the 30% of the time the evaluations don't work, and I get that. But, talent averages alone can account for the other 70%.

EDIT: since 2005 (the farthest back this data goes) there has only been 1 time in a national championship game that a team with a worse talent average has won the game. Talent is almost a 100% predictor in national championship games.

Do you track other conferences?

 

[volinbama256]

The KY game is gonna be a nail biter.... glad we are at home. They are riding high right now and full of confidence... after watching us lay an egg against USCe, every team is going to think they have a legit shot with us and until the coaches actually have this team prepared for once, they actually will have a legit shot to knock us off.

 

[daj2576]

What numbers are you using? 247 composite or something like that?

Rivals. I haven't looked at 24/7's numbers recently, but when I did they were less predictive than Rivals, so I stuck with what I had used.

That might be different now, but I don't feel like going back and redoing years of work when the Rivals results are pretty stable with their historical trends.

 

[orangefreak21]

I love this place. Most predicable place ever.

Sunday: USCe loss is the most embarrassing bad loss ever. Fire Jones I am done.

5 days later: USCe isn't a bad team. They may win 3 of their last 4. Even if they don't every team has losses like this. GBO! It was the players that lost the game anyway.

Can see it coming from a mile away.

People trying to spin "what-if" and how would u feel ab it after this happens?

Lmao. S.Carolina is terrible. We had two weeks to prepare for a terrible team and still lost.

 

[McGeesPub]

Great day, I can't believe y'all are still debating, discussing, arguing, whatever it is about the expectations of the season!

It was 10-2, SEC east champs...NO EXCUSES!!!

Do you want to bring up injuries as an excuse? Fine, but in the face of all the injuries, look at the A&M game and the South Carolina game… What common Factor would have turned those two losses into a win? Less injuries? No. The answer is turnovers… Protect the football and we still win those games, no matter who was playing. Is the lack of focus and protection of the football, along with undisciplined play… Those are the reasons we have three losses, and we still would be a playoff contender with one loss if we would have only protected the football.

Yeah, I agree. Is that poor coaching, or can every turnover simply be chalked up to poor execution?

 

[daj2576]

Do you track other conferences?

Track? Not anywhere near what I do with the SEC.

But I do have the information to track them, and tend to look when the narrative becomes "look at how great team X is doing" only to find that generally, they aren't really doing that well outside of these expectations.

Here is a conference comparison.

 

[BigOrangeVols]

At the beginning of the year it wasn't. This team is loaded. Veteran QB. Stable of RBs. A gym full of WRs. An OL that isn't great, but isn't awful. The best DE in the country and depth to fill out the rest of the DL. Two All SEC LBs. An All SEC CB and respectable players around him. The best PR. The best KR. An elite punter and an above average kicker.

The circumstances of this season and the pathetic performance this team has put forth nearly every week doesn't change any of this.

Truth

 

[jave36]

Yeah, I agree. Is that poor coaching, or can every turnover simply be chalked up to poor execution?

The insane amount of drops and turnovers have to have something to do with kids thinking too much. Jmo

 

[Pepe_Silvia]

At the beginning of the year it wasn't. This team is loaded. Veteran QB. Stable of RBs. A gym full of WRs. An OL that isn't great, but isn't awful. The best DE in the country and depth to fill out the rest of the DL. Two All SEC LBs. An All SEC CB and respectable players around him. The best PR. The best KR. An elite punter and an above average kicker.

The circumstances of this season and the pathetic performance this team has put forth nearly every week doesn't change any of this.

We failed to take into account that Muschamp is Butch's daddy. Should have seen that loss coming from a mile away.

 

[BigOrangeVols]

We have some talent but this is the SEC. Everyone does. The other teams in this league didn't stop recruiting at the same time we started.

Here's the 247 talent ranking. (I'm not a big fan of the composite when it comes to ranking individual players but it's more useful here in this situation I think) 2016 College SEC Football Team Talent Composite

We are 2nd in the division, not the league. We are 7th in the league just ahead of Florida by a few points then there's a drop off before you get to the bottom feeders.

The biggest mistake our fan base makes is that we think that these other teams are devoid of talent and they are not.

The west isn't. The east is terrible on a national scale. Seriously.

 

[daj2576]

Subtle dig aside, I'm curious, do these projections take into account a class rank at the time of the signing day, an adjusted class rank to account for transfers, etc, or each individual player's recruiting ranking at the time the model is run?

It wasn't a dig more than an acknowledgement that almost everyone has the same reaction that you did initially.

No, these numbers can be arrived at the day after signing day. As I mentioned, I have gone back and readjusted for attrition, and tried to adjust out variables that others are convinced are meaningful, and tend to find that the amount of work goes vertical but the predictive ability remains flat.

That isn't to say that there aren't more meaningful analysis that can even be used to beat Vegas with some consistency, but those are extremely expensive/valuable and will not be given out on message boards, to be sure.

 

[The Orange Pants]

We have some talent but this is the SEC. Everyone does. The other teams in this league didn't stop recruiting at the same time we started.

Here's the 247 talent ranking. (I'm not a big fan of the composite when it comes to ranking individual players but it's more useful here in this situation I think) 2016 College SEC Football Team Talent Composite

We are 2nd in the division, not the league. We are 7th in the league just ahead of Florida by a few points then there's a drop off before you get to the bottom feeders.

The biggest mistake our fan base makes is that we think that these other teams are devoid of talent and they are not.

These rankings ignore who actually plays and the value of the position. As I've previously stated, we are loaded - particularly at the most important positions.

Even Stevie Wonder could see the talent on this roster. I'm sorry that you want to justify what has occurred this year. I have no interest in doing the same.

 

[theutvolunteers]

Track? Not anywhere near what I do with the SEC.

But I do have the information to track them, and tend to look when the narrative becomes "look at how great team X is doing" only to find that generally, they aren't really doing that well outside of these expectations.

Here is a conference comparison.

View attachment 122885

Was there something confusing about the word track? Maybe I'm missing it due to lack of sleep with a newborn.

 

[McGeesPub]

It wasn't a dig more than an acknowledgement that almost everyone has the same reaction that you did initially.

No, these numbers can be arrived at the day after signing day. As I mentioned, I have gone back and readjusted for attrition, and tried to adjust out variables that others are convinced are meaningful, and tend to find that the amount of work goes vertical but the predictive ability remains flat.

That isn't to say that there aren't more meaningful analysis that can even be used to beat Vegas with some consistency, but those are extremely expensive/valuable and will not be given out on message boards, to be sure.

Well, I hope you are going to Vegas with this. 70 percent will make you rich, almost Gray's Sports Almanac rich.

 

[Atzar]

Yeah, I agree. Is that poor coaching, or can every turnover simply be chalked up to poor execution?

Some of both IMO.

In the A&M game, there were two fumbles - one where Dobbs and Kelly both tried to keep the ball at the mesh point, and another where Kelly coughed it up 20 yards downfield. In both cases, Dobbs was first to the loose ball. Twice, he tried to make the hero play rather than just falling on it. IMO this probably reflects on coaching. Possession of the football comes before everything else.

There were other plays... the Croom interception, the Kamara fumble 60 yards downfield, the EB fumble on special teams. Croom needs to catch the ball. Kamara tried to do too much... can't fault him for the effort, just needs to hold onto the ball. Evan's fumble was the result of a missed targeting call. I don't blame coaches for things like this.

Separating execution from coaching is always a lot of guesswork though. So take the above for what it's worth... not very much.

 

[BigZiti09]

These rankings ignore who actually plays and the value of the position. As I've previously stated, we are loaded - particularly at the most important positions.

Even Stevie Wonder could see the talent on this roster. I'm sorry that you want to justify what has occurred this year. I have no interest in doing the same.

3 most important positions in this conference. OL, DT, QB -We are not loaded at any of them.

You are part of the "no excuse" crowd and I get that. Be mad about it all. Doesn't bother me. Fact is that Georgia has more talent than us and we are even with Florida. Everyone in the "no excuse" camp refuses to acknowledge that as being fact but it's true.

No excuse for the SC loss in my book though.

 

[unioncityvol]

butch's telepathic abilities didnt let him know that dobbs was going to play worse than peterman in the swamp. bad coaching man i tell ya.

i guess he couldve pulled him.

 

[BigZiti09]

The west isn't. The east is terrible on a national scale. Seriously.

It's not but you can believe that if you want. I had that discussion yesterday so you can just go back and read those posts. I'm not rehashing.

Georgia still has more talent than us and we are pretty even with Florida.

Bama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn and Ole Miss all are as/more talent as the Vols.

 

[daj2576]

The west isn't. The east is terrible on a national scale. Seriously.

Watch for bowl season, you'll likely find out how under-valued the talent in the east is. These sorts of wild extrapolations from data, using comparative data with very few common opponents, is not as meaningful as most would want to believe.


Look at the charts I posted earlier. In the SEC the east does have the biggest over achiever (a marginally over-achieving Kentucky) but the biggest under-achiever (a massively under-achieving UGA). Everyone else is performing to talent, just like the west. The problem is that the West and the East aren't similar in talent. The best teams from the west should beat every team in the east, and the worst teams from the east should lose to every team in the west. That distracts from the middle third that are relatively equal (but somehow rarely seem to play each other).

 

[jave36]

3 most important positions in this conference. OL, DT, QB -We are not loaded at any of them.

You are part of the "no excuse" crowd and I get that. Be mad about it all. Doesn't bother me. Fact is that Georgia has more talent than us and we are even with Florida. Everyone in the "no excuse" camp refuses to acknowledge that as being fact but it's true.

No excuse for the SC loss in my book though.

UGA has more talent than us? Going into the season? We are better at every position except qb.

 

[chavisut]

Division stinks. UGA is bad.

 

[Wickman]

It's not but you can believe that if you want. I had that discussion yesterday so you can just go back and read those posts. I'm not rehashing.

Georgia still has more talent than us and we are pretty even with Florida.

Bama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn and Ole Miss all are as/more talent as the Vols.

Lmao Georgia is not more talented than us

 

[BigZiti09]

UGA has more talent than us? Going into the season? We are better at every position except qb.

Yes. Just look at the rankings. It's not even close.

Sure Mark Richt underachieved yearly but that's not talent, that's coaching.

Georgia has more talent on their roster.

 

[daj2576]

Well, I hope you are going to Vegas with this. 70 percent will make you rich, almost Gray's Sports Almanac rich.

Lol. Vegas knows how predictable games are that's why most are bet on a spread, not straight up. And no, even at 70% these won't get you beating Vegas enough to make money. That isn't to say that I don't work around those who do more advanced evals that do make money, but even those use something like what I am showing you as a starting off point.