'22 Recruiting Forum: Official Kentucky Pregame/Game Thread

[Maxwell865]

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What a Big Blue Beta

 

[Jimmy Football]

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Why is there a dash at the end of each line?

 

[RikidyBones]

Why is there a dash at the end of each line?

Because he planned to explain but realized he couldn't

 

[tn88volfan]

Our pass defense finally comes back to bite us

KY 38
UT 35

 

[tomq_123]

 

[supersmo18]

Our pass defense finally comes back to bite us

KY 38
UT 35

I'm disappointed in you

 

[mrmax86]

Our pass defense finally comes back to bite us

KY 38
UT 35

 

[WangoTango]

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The Big Blue Line? He'll ignore you if you cross it. Shivers I tell you, shivers.

 

[UTMVol76]

The Big Blue Line? He'll ignore you if you cross it. Shivers I tell you, shivers.

That's a straight up grade school taunt

"cross this line, I double dare you!"

 

[Govolsman98]

Kentucky is a pile of crap

 

[VolsnCards5]

Can’t shake 38-30 to the good guys. So that’s my pick

 

[Devo182]

45-27

They're chasing all game. Have to pass. They gain some yards, but we rack up sacks and 2 INTs. Get a garbage time TD. UK fans are on the interstate by mid Q3.

 

[UTMVol76]

Over/under 3.5 sacks?

That will be a key stat in this game

 

[Devo182]

Tennessee 45

Kentucky 34

34 is 1 point more than they've averaged vs....1 FCS team (31) and 2 G5 opponents (37 and 31).

They're averaging 21.5 ppg in SEC games. That is TWELVE points below what those opposing teams (FL, Miss, Miss St, and USCjr) are allowing vs other SEC teams.

We are allowing 31.7 vs SEC opponents...so logically UK will only score 20

 

[Devo182]

Over/under 3.5 sacks?

That will be a key stat in this game

15 QB pressures. 5 sacks. 2 INTs. 5 throwaways.

 

[Devo182]

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UK out here using volume yardage stats

Guess they aren't allowed to teach statistics in Kentucky

 

[drvenner]

34 is 1 point more than they've averaged vs....1 FCS team (31) and 2 G5 opponents (37 and 31).

They're averaging 21.5 ppg in SEC games. That is TWELVE points below what those opposing teams (FL, Miss, Miss St, and USCjr) are allowing vs other SEC teams.

We are allowing 31.7 vs SEC opponents...so logically UK will only score 20

These are definitely analytics I can get behind.

 

[Ron Swanson]

Our pass defense isn’t nearly as bad as the stats show. The fact our offense scores so quickly and so often puts the other team in passing mode most of the game and they will dominate time of possession. As a result they will have higher than usual passing statistics. So what?

Is our secondary great? No. Will it improve? Yes.

Margin of victory should be talked about more. Vols average 50.1 ppg. Our opponents are averaging 23.1 ppg. That’s a 27 ppg margin of victory.

 

[therickbol]

Our pass defense isn’t nearly as bad as the stats show. The fact our offense scores so quickly and so often puts the other team in passing mode most of the game and they will dominate time of possession. As a result they will have higher than usual passing statistics. So what?

Is our secondary great? No. Will it improve? Yes.

Margin of victory should be talked about more. Vols average 50.1 ppg. Our opponents are averaging 23.1 ppg. That’s a 27 ppg margin of victory.

Scoring more points than the other team....eh, that is one stat that you can concentrate. But let's be serious, do we really care about points. Let's talk about what is REALLY important to everyone; how many total passing yards does the other team have!

The fact that so many poster's football intellect is not collectively smart enough to disregard stats that are skewed confuses me. They have an intense interest in the sport or you would not be such a huge fan. Just something as simple as yards-per-completion when evaluating data is a good start. Our secondary is not strong. Our pass rush in good. Our run defense is strong. Teams that have even a moderate pulse at QB and WR will finish the game with a good amount of passing yards. It's a byproduct of our lack of talent in the secondary but also the dynamics of how we play the game. Better talent is going to help moving forward. But I don't see a situation where we ever have a defense that allows a very low passing yards total. We score early and put teams in a deficit. We purposely run our defense in a way that they other team is not able to control the clock with their running game. That will always equal higher passing yard totals.

 

[Glitch]

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[Glitch]

Why is there a dash at the end of each line?

They think the dash is a period?

 

[Glitch]

Yeah, and it won't even be that close. Heinie whooping is about to be in full effect/affect.

 

[BlackCreekVol]

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Not sure what this is but it's gross and hilarious at the same time

 

[volsagain]

They think the dash is a period?

I thought that's where she put her feet when we're going all in

 

[SoilVol]

Based on my super scientific analysis:

UK : 26 - 30 pts
UT : 38 - 50 pts

UK averages 0.389 points per play. We average allowing our opponents to have 77.43 plays. So at worse, Kentucky shouldn't score more than 30pts in this game. They affect that by getting more plays and holding onto the ball longer. UK's offense typically averages 67.85 plays per game.

UT averages 0.645 points per play. UK averages allowing opponents 58.57 plays per game. So at worse, the Vols will score at least 38pts. Again, Kentucky affects that by holding onto the ball longest and limiting our plays. Holding us below 58 plays would be a miracle for UK, we average 77.7 plays per game.

Kentucky is already pretty good at writing the narrative of the game, because they average 10 more plays per game than their opponents. While Tennessee averages the same number of plays as opponents. Kentucky's problem is their scoring efficiency, and it will take some defensive scoring and really, really dominating the TOP to make up for the gap between the teams' scoring rates.