nicksjuzunk
Lurking
- Joined
- May 29, 2009
- Messages
- 35,560
- Likes
- 112,832
Tennessee remains on the road after Saturday's thrilling win in Athens. It's the 3rd game in a brutal 4 game stretch for the Vols, and the 3rd week in a row Tennessee will be featured on CBS.
Tennessee has yet to garner the respect it feels it deserves in the polls, but truth be told, they have beaten lower ranked opponents. No matter how the brand of UGA and UF stacks up historically, Tennessee has yet to face a team who is close enough in the rankings to make voters take notice. Enter the Aggies.
Keys to Victory:
1. We need to have a bad Knight: Tennessee has faced A&M QB Trevor Knight before. In 2014, he played for Oklahoma, and blasted a far inferior Tennessee team for 308 yards passing. Now, as a transfer to A&M, Knight is having a good year. Statistically, though different players, he is putting up numbers similar to Jerod Evans from VT, both through the air, and on the ground, although Evans is completing 67% of passes vs. Knight's 57%.
Tennessee held Evans in check on the ground, and they need to make sure Knight doesn't get away too often. Through the air, Knight benefits from some big plays, that really boost his passing stats. Versus teams with a pulse, Knight has averaged 229 yards per game. If Tennessee can keep him in that area, with less than 50 yards rushing, they will be in a good place.
2. Rush to victory: A&M makes their living on the ground game, 13th nationally with an excellent 258 yards per game. Tennessee's rushing defense has given up 149 yards per game, ranked 57th nationally.
Tennessee has rushed for 174.6 per game, and A&M's defense gives up 134.8 YPG. If you've lost interest in those numbers, it's a clear edge for A&M, but there is a little bit more to this story. A&M has played 2 of the top 50 rushing teams, Auburn and Arkansas. They shut down Arkansas, but Auburn had a good day.
Tennessee, on the other hand has played 4 of the top 50 rushing teams (App, Ohio, VT, UGA). So, are those teams top 50 rushing teams because they played Tennessee, or is Tennessee's rushing defense numbers hurting because they played those teams? Let's see:
TN vs App: 184 yards rushing
App average per game: 213
TN vs VT: 186 yards rushing
VT average per game: 195
TN vs OH: 88 yards
OH average per game: 203
TN vs FL: 106 yards
FL average per game: 161
TN vs UGA: 181 yards
UGA average per game: 194
All of that said, Tennessee's rushing defense is better than it seems, when the rushing quality of opponents is taken into consideration. The Vols held opponents below their average every week. That being said, A&M have faced no rushing defense in the top 62. Should be interesting to see if the Vols can hold them to under 200.
3. Avoid the big one: A&M has a knack for big plays. Tennessee has to avoid giving them up. It's really that simple. Side note... A&M crushed Shoop's 2013 Vandy defense with 56 points. Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones are huge targets with big play potential at WR. Tabuyo, Kirk, and Noil are also trouble. The Tennessee secondary is going to have their hands full, and Sutton is going to be greatly missed here. Tennessee cannot afford to let A&M get huge chunks. They have to be consistent and disciplined.
Possibly the bigger threat lies in the hands of RB Trayveon Williams. He leads the team with an eye popping 9 yards per carry. He is a smaller back that can do a lot of damage. I was scared to death everytime the UGA RB's starting cutting up through our defense, and there is going to be a lot more of that this week.
4. Man the Middle: Tennessee is hurting without JRM and DK34. UGA saw it, and exploited it. Look for A&M to do the same, until the Vols can find someone who can get the job done.
5. If it's not there, try the air: Teams with a competent QB have found success in passing against the Aggies. UCLA and ARK both passed for over 300 yards. If Tennessee is having trouble getting the running game going, they may be able to have success in the passing game, which has improved during SEC play. Dobbs needs to be sharp, and the TN WR's need to bring their A game, because it will be needed.
6. Who's DE best?: Derek Barnett and Myles Garrett will forever be compared, as their careers are paralleled in identical years, at the same position, and in the same conference. Myles is unknown for this game, as he is dealing with a lower leg injury. Barnett will be out to prove that he is the premier DE in college football with a head-to-head stat victory... if Garrett can play. It's in Tennessee's best interest that Garrett sits this one out... but Barnett is still the best
Prediction: I'm not ready to make a prediction on this game, but it's that time, so here it is...
I think we see a high scoring affair. Big plays for both teams are going to turn this into a bit of a shootout, in spite of the emphasis on defense. I've not chosen against the Vols yet, and I'm tempted to do it now, but I'm going to keep riding that big orange train.
TN 38
A&M 35
Tennessee has yet to garner the respect it feels it deserves in the polls, but truth be told, they have beaten lower ranked opponents. No matter how the brand of UGA and UF stacks up historically, Tennessee has yet to face a team who is close enough in the rankings to make voters take notice. Enter the Aggies.
Keys to Victory:
1. We need to have a bad Knight: Tennessee has faced A&M QB Trevor Knight before. In 2014, he played for Oklahoma, and blasted a far inferior Tennessee team for 308 yards passing. Now, as a transfer to A&M, Knight is having a good year. Statistically, though different players, he is putting up numbers similar to Jerod Evans from VT, both through the air, and on the ground, although Evans is completing 67% of passes vs. Knight's 57%.
Tennessee held Evans in check on the ground, and they need to make sure Knight doesn't get away too often. Through the air, Knight benefits from some big plays, that really boost his passing stats. Versus teams with a pulse, Knight has averaged 229 yards per game. If Tennessee can keep him in that area, with less than 50 yards rushing, they will be in a good place.
2. Rush to victory: A&M makes their living on the ground game, 13th nationally with an excellent 258 yards per game. Tennessee's rushing defense has given up 149 yards per game, ranked 57th nationally.
Tennessee has rushed for 174.6 per game, and A&M's defense gives up 134.8 YPG. If you've lost interest in those numbers, it's a clear edge for A&M, but there is a little bit more to this story. A&M has played 2 of the top 50 rushing teams, Auburn and Arkansas. They shut down Arkansas, but Auburn had a good day.
Tennessee, on the other hand has played 4 of the top 50 rushing teams (App, Ohio, VT, UGA). So, are those teams top 50 rushing teams because they played Tennessee, or is Tennessee's rushing defense numbers hurting because they played those teams? Let's see:
TN vs App: 184 yards rushing
App average per game: 213
TN vs VT: 186 yards rushing
VT average per game: 195
TN vs OH: 88 yards
OH average per game: 203
TN vs FL: 106 yards
FL average per game: 161
TN vs UGA: 181 yards
UGA average per game: 194
All of that said, Tennessee's rushing defense is better than it seems, when the rushing quality of opponents is taken into consideration. The Vols held opponents below their average every week. That being said, A&M have faced no rushing defense in the top 62. Should be interesting to see if the Vols can hold them to under 200.
3. Avoid the big one: A&M has a knack for big plays. Tennessee has to avoid giving them up. It's really that simple. Side note... A&M crushed Shoop's 2013 Vandy defense with 56 points. Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones are huge targets with big play potential at WR. Tabuyo, Kirk, and Noil are also trouble. The Tennessee secondary is going to have their hands full, and Sutton is going to be greatly missed here. Tennessee cannot afford to let A&M get huge chunks. They have to be consistent and disciplined.
Possibly the bigger threat lies in the hands of RB Trayveon Williams. He leads the team with an eye popping 9 yards per carry. He is a smaller back that can do a lot of damage. I was scared to death everytime the UGA RB's starting cutting up through our defense, and there is going to be a lot more of that this week.
4. Man the Middle: Tennessee is hurting without JRM and DK34. UGA saw it, and exploited it. Look for A&M to do the same, until the Vols can find someone who can get the job done.
5. If it's not there, try the air: Teams with a competent QB have found success in passing against the Aggies. UCLA and ARK both passed for over 300 yards. If Tennessee is having trouble getting the running game going, they may be able to have success in the passing game, which has improved during SEC play. Dobbs needs to be sharp, and the TN WR's need to bring their A game, because it will be needed.
6. Who's DE best?: Derek Barnett and Myles Garrett will forever be compared, as their careers are paralleled in identical years, at the same position, and in the same conference. Myles is unknown for this game, as he is dealing with a lower leg injury. Barnett will be out to prove that he is the premier DE in college football with a head-to-head stat victory... if Garrett can play. It's in Tennessee's best interest that Garrett sits this one out... but Barnett is still the best
Prediction: I'm not ready to make a prediction on this game, but it's that time, so here it is...
I think we see a high scoring affair. Big plays for both teams are going to turn this into a bit of a shootout, in spite of the emphasis on defense. I've not chosen against the Vols yet, and I'm tempted to do it now, but I'm going to keep riding that big orange train.
TN 38
A&M 35
