RIP Twitter

#2,077
#2,077
evillawyer said:
Not giving advice. Just predicted that this would be a cluster eff for Musk--and it's shaping up to be just that.
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No it's not. It's a part of any acquisition. Reviewing the books and product to make sure there isn't anything nefarious. If he pulls out because fake accounts have a high share in the total product, Twitter tanks and suffers a harsh black mark and potential suits.
 
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#2,078
#2,078
utvols88 said:
No it's not. It's a part of any acquisition. Reviewing the books and product to make sure there isn't anything nefarious. If he pulls out because fake accounts have a high share in the total product, Twitter tanks and suffers a harsh black mark and potential suits.
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From NY Times article about the current situation:

“Many will view this as Musk using this Twitter filing/spam accounts as a way to get out of this deal in a vastly changing market,” Daniel Ives, an analyst with Wedbush, said in a note to investors.
 
#2,079
#2,079
utvols88 said:
No it's not. It's a part of any acquisition. Reviewing the books and product to make sure there isn't anything nefarious. If he pulls out because fake accounts have a high share in the total product, Twitter tanks and suffers a harsh black mark and potential suits.
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Elon has stated one of his goals is to get rid of spam / bot accounts.

You think Twitter couldn’t wipe out 80%+ based on some simple algorithms? Of course they could. But they are a public company whose valuations in part depends upon an active user count. Improving the quality of the user base would impact their company valuation in the short term. I suspect that the spam / bot accounts make up a far larger percent of the reported active user count than most people think.
 
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#2,080
#2,080
DC_Vol said:
Elon has stated one of his goals is to get rid of spam / bot accounts.

You think Twitter couldn’t wipe out 80%+ based on some simple algorithms? Of course they could. But they are a public company whose valuations in part depends upon an active user count. Improving the quality of the user base would impact their company valuation in the short term. I suspect that the spam / bot accounts make up a far larger percent of the reported active user count than most people think.
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It's a win/win for Musk. If it's proven that a large percentage of accounts are fake he can pull out and Twitters stock will plummet enabling him buy at a cheaper price if he chooses to. If it is a low percentage of fake accounts he's got data to drive more advertisement/information selling.
 
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#2,081
#2,081
hog88 said:
It's a win/win for Musk. If it's proven that a large percentage of accounts are fake he can pull out and Twitters stock will plummet enabling him buy at a cheaper price if he chooses to. If it is a low percentage of fake accounts he's got data to drive more advertisement/information selling.
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I would love to know who he hired to go do the audits there.

Also going to be interesting to see if he makes the findings public knowledge.
 
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#2,083
#2,083
DC_Vol said:
I would love to know who he hired to go do the audits there.

Also going to be interesting to see if he makes the findings public knowledge.
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If there is a high percentage of fake accounts he'd be crazy not to, or use it as leverage to renegotiate the price.
 
#2,085
#2,085
hog88 said:
If there is a high percentage of fake accounts he'd be crazy not to, or use it as leverage to renegotiate the price.
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That's just it though. The price drops if it's high and there are inaccurate reports. It's a part of the acquisition process of every business unless the buyer is an absolute idiot. I know you know this. Just agreeing.
 
#2,086
#2,086
DC_Vol said:
I would love to know who he hired to go do the audits there.

Also going to be interesting to see if he makes the findings public knowledge.
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Who didn't know that Twitter (and Facebook, for that matter) has been swarming with bots/fake accounts for many years?

You can't tell me that Musk didn't know this when he made his offer.
 
#2,088
#2,088
utvols88 said:
"Many will view" lmaaaooooooo.
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Let's see how it shakes out. Twitter stock is down and Tesla stock is up precisely because investors believe the deal is on the rocks.

Also, the bot situation has been known and disclosed by Twitter for a long time. Musk can't act surprised by it. He's desperately looking for an out.
 
#2,093
#2,093
Velo Vol said:
Who didn't know that Twitter (and Facebook, for that matter) has been swarming with bots/fake accounts for many years?

You can't tell me that Musk didn't know this when he made his offer.
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he was going on a Twitter claim of the amount - this is due diligence to verify that data.

if you read the article linked in the tweet from EL this was explained
 
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#2,094
#2,094
Velo Vol said:
Or maybe he is looking for an excuse to get out
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I really doubt that. He's just doing his due diligence like anyone would do in a similar situation. Hell, you don't buy commercial properties without a phase 1 so why do you think Musk would spend billions without a look at the books?
 
#2,095
#2,095
Velo Vol said:
Who didn't know that Twitter (and Facebook, for that matter) has been swarming with bots/fake accounts for many years?

You can't tell me that Musk didn't know this when he made his offer.
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I don’t understand your point. Twitter stated bot / spam accounts are less than 5% of their daily active user base. The question at hand is had Elon Musk discovered something significantly different.
 
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#2,096
#2,096
evillawyer said:
Let's see how it shakes out. Twitter stock is down and Tesla stock is up precisely because investors believe the deal is on the rocks.

Also, the bot situation has been known and disclosed by Twitter for a long time. Musk can't act surprised by it. He's desperately looking for an out.
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Who cares about Twitter stock. He's buying it outright.

Bot situation being known and presented at 5% vs being 20% or some other number is not on the same plain. You have never purchased an asset, have you?
 
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#2,098
#2,098
utvols88 said:
Who cares about Twitter stock. He's buying it outright.

Bot situation being known and presented at 5% vs being 20% or some other number is not on the same plain. You have never purchased an asset, have you?
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Some people are only interested in their agenda and are missing a fascinating development unfold. No matter how it plays out, this will be a study of business cases for decades to come.
 
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#2,100
#2,100
evillawyer said:
I love the insouciance about a billion dollar break up fee if Musk abandons the deal.
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You are not very smart are you? If it turns out that there is over 5% spam/bots on twitter, then Twitter is in breach of the deal. It think it might be called a "material breach" or something like that. That would mean that Twitter misrepresented its actual user numbers and violated the terms of the deal.

Maybe one of the real lawyers on here can tell us.
 
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