Unless Wake Forest gets drastically better from last season, then you might be giving them too much credit.
Sudfeld is back right this year, right?
Indiana's thing the last few years since Wilson has gotten there has seemed to be, when healthy (especially at QB), that they can put up points in a lot of games, but they can't stop any team (with a pulse) from scoring on them them...and that can put them in those "have to be the last team to score in regulation to win" situations, which was more or less what happened in the Bowling Green game. After trading scores all game, Bowling Green got the ball back with less than 2 minutes left because of how bad that defense was, and they scored with 9 seconds left in the game (they only saw 3rd down once or twice, though back-to-back pass interferences against IU probably helped).
If Sudfeld's back, that offense at least seems to run a bit better production (you all just don't have a backup), and 2013 seemed to suggest more emphasis on the passing game is the ideal (when he's healthy; Coleman's production picked up a little later and he hit 900 yards before missing their last two games). They probably would have been better last year with both, but the inability to pass with either backup seemed to put more of an emphasis on the running game.
What's your reasoning giving Purdue the win there, by the way? They've also been awful (if not worse).