RPI Discussion.

#76
#76
We could probably get in with 2 quality and 2 bad losses.
The problem with this team is their vulnerability to the bad loss.
After the LSU game we were projected a 36 rpi.
After the TAMU loss it dropped to 45.
One more slip up and the projected would most likely be in the 50s.
Not sure we'll get by Vandy, GA, SC, TAMU and Mss St without another miscue. Also Bama is right on the edge and we never play well there.
 
#77
#77
VolGee4 said:
I don't think it matters where some of these other SEC teams end up. If we beat Mizzou once, Arkansas, and then beat the teams we are supposed to beat, then we are in. Mizzou and Arkansas aren't great wins, but they are solid wins. Unless they collapse, they will hover between 50-75 RPI. Arkansas has a tough schedule- play UK, Mizzou, and LSU twice.
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I feel like we have emerged as the 3rd team in the SEC, not that that's saying a lot, but we could be in a much worse position.
 
#78
#78
calban said:
We could probably get in with 2 quality and 2 bad losses.
The problem with this team is their vulnerability to the bad loss.
After the LSU game we were projected a 36 rpi.
After the TAMU loss it dropped to 45.
One more slip up and the projected would most likely be in the 50s.
Not sure we'll get by Vandy, GA, SC, TAMU and Mss St without another miscue. Also Bama is right on the edge and we never play well there.
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It's why I say avoiding bad losses is more important than adding quality wins IMO.

Lose to UF x2, @UK, @Bama, @Mizz and Ark but win the others and I think we are in a decent spot.

I wouldn't trade a loss to South Carolina for a win against Florida, jmo though.
 
#79
#79
bleedingTNorange said:
So you're saying we will be the 2nd high major in 8 years, and 1st high major since the expansion to be left out with a RPI of 45 or better? Bold statement.

RPI with 11 wins will be borderline and would almost certainly become dependent on the SECT and our matchups.
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Not what I am saying.

If we don't beat another top 50 team then IMO we won't be inside the top 45. Maybe 45-50 but very unlikely we are 44 or better. If somehow we just slipped into the top 45 then we wouldn't get in without at least 2 SEC tourney wins.

That's my point.
 
#80
#80
bleedingTNorange said:
It's why I say avoiding bad losses is more important than adding quality wins IMO.

Lose to UF x2, @UK, @Bama, @Mizz and Ark but win the others and I think we are in a decent spot.

I wouldn't trade a loss to South Carolina for a win against Florida, jmo though.
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If that happens 2 wins in the SEC tourney minimum to get in.

I would bet alot of money our Rpi wouldn't be inside the top 45 with those results.
 
#82
#82
BruinVol said:
If that happens 2 wins in the SEC tourney minimum to get in.

I would bet alot of money our Rpi wouldn't be inside the top 45 with those results.
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Unfortunately there's no way to prove who's right or wrong unless that exact scenario plays out which I see as doubtful.
 
#84
#84
BruinVol said:
Yep.

Like I have said this team looks on track to try to do it unfortunately.
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To do what, that exact scenario?

If there's one thing I've figured out with this team it's to expect the unexpected, I doubt they'll follow the exact script I just posted.

If I had to guess how they'll finish the season, I would say 22-10 (12-6). Likely puts them top 4 SEC and getting a 1st round bye in the SECT.
 
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#86
#86
The existence of this thread is kinda sad. Not because fans are looking at RPI but because they are looking at it to decide if we can make it in rather than to see where we will be seeded.

Such a disappointment.
 
#87
#87
BigZiti09 said:
The existence of this thread is kinda sad. Not because fans are looking at RPI but because they are looking at it to decide if we can make it in rather than to see where we will be seeded.

Such a disappointment.
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Yep.

I have ridiculed such a thread being necessary all off season and now its here.

It wouldnt be CCM basketball without it apparently
 
#88
#88
BruinVol said:
If that happens 2 wins in the SEC tourney minimum to get in.

I would bet alot of money our Rpi wouldn't be inside the top 45 with those results.
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I haven't looked at the RPI formula real closely. But, it used to be something where you didn't necessarily need top 50 wins. What it takes into account is your number of wins, road wins, and strength of schedule. So, if you rack up 22 wins against mostly inferior opponents, lose 8, and have a good SOS, then you usually have a good RPI. It doesn't matter a whole lot how strong the 22 wins are.

I have always thought the RPI was garbage. But if we get to 21+ wins with our SOS, I believe we are in. JMO.
 
#89
#89
VolGee4 said:
I haven't looked at the RPI formula real closely. But, it used to be something where you didn't necessarily need top 50 wins. What it takes into account is your number of wins, road wins, and strength of schedule. So, if you rack up 22 wins against mostly inferior opponents, lose 8, and have a good SOS, then you usually have a good RPI. It doesn't matter a whole lot how strong the 22 wins are.

I have always thought the RPI was garbage. But if we get to 21+ wins with our SOS, I believe we are in. JMO.
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11-7 would put us at 20-11. That's where I say we are out.

You say more than 21 and I agree. We would need 2 in the SEC tourney to get to that
 
#90
#90
BruinVol said:
The last two games seem to show this team is heading for mediocrity. 10-12 wins looks to be most likely area of finish to me

And of course just when you least expect it this team proves something different. Hoping tomorrow is another example
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The huh was in response to your post before you edited it, not sure it was English lol.

See my edited response lol
 
#91
#91
BigZiti09 said:
The existence of this thread is kinda sad. Not because fans are looking at RPI but because they are looking at it to decide if we can make it in rather than to see where we will be seeded.

Such a disappointment.
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At this point it could turn into either, no?
 
#92
#92
bleedingTNorange said:
It's why I say avoiding bad losses is more important than adding quality wins IMO.

Lose to UF x2, @UK, @Bama, @Mizz and Ark but win the others and I think we are in a decent spot.

I wouldn't trade a loss to South Carolina for a win against Florida, jmo though.
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So great that with Cuonzo's most talented team we are expecting to lose to every quality team we play.
 
#93
#93
BruinVol said:
11-7 would put us at 20-11. That's where I say we are out.

You say more than 21 and I agree. We would need 2 in the SEC tourney to get to that
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Maybe I should have said 21 or more. If we are 12-6 in conference, that means we have a couple more solid wins. If we lose to UK, UF twice, and Mizzou twice, then that means we beat Arkansas, Ole Miss, and at Alabama. I actually thinks that gets us in. I don't think we lose to Mizzou at home though.
 
#94
#94
VolGee4 said:
Maybe I should have said 21 or more. If we are 12-6 in conference, that means we have a couple more solid wins. If we lose to UK, UF twice, and Mizzou twice, then that means we beat Arkansas, Ole Miss, and at Alabama. I actually thinks that gets us in. I don't think we lose to Mizzou at home though.
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I agree 12-6 looks to be good enough to me now. Our opponents have played so well that our Rpi will be plenty solid at 12-6
 
#95
#95
whocaresgobobcats said:
So great that with Cuonzo's most talented team we are expecting to lose to every quality team we play.
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That's just worst case scenario looking at the schedule. CCM has never lost to all of those teams in a season. If he does this year, then it will be a first.
 
#96
#96
bleedingTNorange said:
At this point it could turn into either, no?
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I guess. But so far it's the same thing we've seen past two years and I really don't believe it will change. This team will likely continue on the same maddening path it has been on for 2+ years. The only difference is that this team may end up on the right side of the bubble.

Hope I'm wrong and we turned the corner and the 2nd half vs AM was an aberration.
 
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