Russia brings the fight to ISIS in Syria!!!

#1,176
#1,176
While we're at it, I may as well throw this in the ring as well. It's a good, brief opinion piece that puts Trump's rise into a larger Western context, as we sometimes forget that other people share the planet with us. Anyhow, Trump may be an American aberration, but he is only the latest in a recent trend in some Western nations.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...l?postshare=7161457193633556&tid=ss_tw-bottom

And then? Without France, Europe’s single market will cease to exist. Without Britain, it’s hard to see how NATO lasts long either. Not everyone will be sorry. As Trump’s appealing rhetoric makes clear, the costs of alliances (“millions of dollars annually”) are easier to see than the longer-term gains.

Western unity, nuclear deterrence and standing armies gave us more than a half century of political stability. Shared economic space helped bring prosperity and freedom to Europe and North America alike. But these are things that we all take for granted, until they are gone.
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The pundits who have long predicted the demise of the West due to its decadence may finally be proven right, just not in the sense they thought. It isn't "liberal values" that are doing us in; it's the softness of our inability to handle them that may do us in. We've grown fat off our own prosperity, assume this stability and peace are part of the natural order, and then want to re-engineer society because liberalism is apparently just too goshdarned hard. Authoritarianism and illiberalism are easy; working together, acknowledging difference, and negotiating the "vastness" of republicanism and liberal societies is difficult.

Meanwhile, in the Kremlin, someone is smiling.
 
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#1,182
#1,182
Gramps said:
Putin has announced he will be pulling the Russian Troops out of Syria.
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Oh, that Putin! The only thing I can figure atm, until further info comes to light, is that he is either doing the typical Kremlin "deny and distract" tactic so as to confuse domestic and international perception (why, I would not yet know) or he is doing this as a result of Russia's crumbling economy. The Russian military budget was already set to significantly contract this year; I wonder if the campaign was simply becoming too much.

If this is indeed true, and if he does indeed pull his troops and Russia stops operations there, then this looks (I stress appearances) weaker than anything Obama has ever done. I think this is one reason why so many analysts were confused as to why Putin even went into Syria in the first place, after having waited so long. It was virtually an untenable objective from the very beginning, and one that would most likely only end in him having to withdraw and lose face in the process.
 
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#1,183
#1,183
LouderVol said:
Syria conflict: Russia's Putin orders 'main part' of forces out - BBC News

here is a little on it. Starting to leave by Tuesday. they are getting out quick.
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I heard that he even gave some suggestion of a "Mission Accomplished," albeit not as strongly as Bush did 12 years ago.

If true, Ras has to be cowering in a dark, lonely closet somewhere really depressing right about now.

Even though I think this is the real deal (the result of what most smart people, like yours truly, thought would be the inevitable outcome of such an ill-advised campaign, although not as brief as it was), I can't help but think this is the typical Kremlin disinformation tactic. They're telling us they're leaving, and then they're going to jump out behind a curtain somewhere, tell us they were just kidding, and that Syria is now firmly back in Assad's control again, that ISIS and al-Qaeda are completely destroyed, and that peace reigneth in the Middle East.
 
#1,184
#1,184
volprof said:
I heard that he even gave some suggestion of a "Mission Accomplished," albeit not as strongly as Bush did 12 years ago.

If true, Ras has to be cowering in a dark, lonely closet somewhere really depressing right about now.

Even though I think this is the real deal (the result of what most smart people, like yours truly, thought would be the inevitable outcome of such an ill-advised campaign, although not as brief as it was), I can't help but think this is the typical Kremlin disinformation tactic. They're telling us they're leaving, and then they're going to jump out behind a curtain somewhere, tell us they were just kidding, and that Syria is now firmly back in Assad's control again, that ISIS and al-Qaeda are completely destroyed, and that peace reigneth in the Middle East.
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Go go gadget 1 minute photoshop. If I stop posting mysteriously you know why. hopefully my image attaches.
 

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#1,185
#1,185
I am also wondering if this is another PR trick. They pull out, things go to crap while America is "running the show" and Russia has to come back in to seal the deal after they had everything wrapped up.
 
#1,186
#1,186
LouderVol said:
I am also wondering if this is another PR trick. They pull out, things go to crap while America is "running the show" and Russia has to come back in to seal the deal after they had everything wrapped up.
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Russians are notoriously hard to figure out, simply because their leaders lie so much you can never really decipher truth from untruth. Plus, there's little transparency to the inner-workings of the state elites, so it becomes even doubly hard, even after navigating through the lies.

I thought I had just figured Putin and his moves out, and then he goes and says he's leaving Syria (in complete and utter disgrace, naturally) well ahead of the timeline I had established for the admission of such a failure. I can't help but think this is the real deal, because I can't possibly fathom what in the hell ruse he could be working now. He seems out of ruses at this point.

I think now, Putin and his defeated lackeys, need to just go hide somewhere lonely and plan for how they're going to handle the impending Third Chechen War. For their sake, I hope it is much better than their apparent managing of the Syrian Civil War.
 
#1,188
#1,188
LouderVol said:
I am also wondering if this is another PR trick. They pull out, things go to crap while America is "running the show" and Russia has to come back in to seal the deal after they had everything wrapped up.
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Obama laid the law down to Putin. Putin be scared of O and running.

















Now that is a combination trolling and sarcasm all in one little post. I should have used the blue ink but it cost Freak too much green.
 
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#1,190
#1,190
volprof said:
Russians are notoriously hard to figure out, simply because their leaders lie so much you can never really decipher truth from untruth. Plus, there's little transparency to the inner-workings of the state elites, so it becomes even doubly hard, even after navigating through the lies.

I thought I had just figured Putin and his moves out, and then he goes and says he's leaving Syria (in complete and utter disgrace, naturally) well ahead of the timeline I had established for the admission of such a failure. I can't help but think this is the real deal, because I can't possibly fathom what in the hell ruse he could be working now. He seems out of ruses at this point.

I think now, Putin and his defeated lackeys, need to just go hide somewhere lonely and plan for how they're going to handle the impending Third Chechen War. For their sake, I hope it is much better than their apparent managing of the Syrian Civil War.
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To me at this point it comes down to how much fanfare this gets. If Putin trots out the red carpet and makes a show of welcoming back the triumphant warriors it tells me they are pulling out with the tail between their legs. If its quieter, routine stuff with just a few medals given out and a speech or two I will be more willing to believe they are leaving on good footing. But again I can't help but wonder if they are getting out while the getting is good to save face from something we don't know about.
 
#1,191
#1,191
LouderVol said:
To me at this point it comes down to how much fanfare this gets. If Putin trots out the red carpet and makes a show of welcoming back the triumphant warriors it tells me they are pulling out with the tail between their legs. If its quieter, routine stuff with just a few medals given out and a speech or two I will be more willing to believe they are leaving on good footing. But again I can't help but wonder if they are getting out while the getting is good to save face from something we don't know about.
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I can't deny that he has strengthened Assad's negotiating power, but if this is really it, then what happens when the rebels just start reclaiming what they had in the first place here in a few months or so?

It's odd, no matter how you slice it. I guess we'll just have to see how it plays out, but no one can convince me at the moment that Assad is ready to retake the reins without Russia's help and that he will keep things stable enough from here on that outsider help is no longer needed.
 
#1,192
#1,192
volprof said:
I can't deny that he has strengthened Assad's negotiating power, but if this is really it, then what happens when the rebels just start reclaiming what they had in the first place here in a few months or so?

It's odd, no matter how you slice it. I guess we'll just have to see how it plays out, but no one can convince me at the moment that Assad is ready to retake the reins without Russia's help and that he will keep things stable enough from here on that outsider help is no longer needed.
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Russians returning home deserve the red carpet, regardless. They've done the region and world a service.

I doubt this peace process last though...jmo..


EDIT: That was intended to quote Louder...
 
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#1,193
#1,193
Okay, after a few hours to reflect more, here's what I'll say, partly in credit to Putin and partly not.

1. Putin showed the world how you can both skillfully use deceit and limited military engagement, unlike the Bush administration in '03, to shift the narrative and to admittedly accomplish short-term, immediate goals (reinforce and stabilize Assad, shift attention from Ukraine, force the US's hand, etc.). This is no departure from Putin's track record, which is one littered with numerous short- to mid-term successes. Which leads to...

2. Putin may be setting himself up perfectly for a Bush "Mission Accomplished" moment, although it will probably never matter as much to his public perception as that disastrous statement did to Bush's. In this sense, this all goes back to questions about whether or not Putin's tactics, which are admittedly highly successful in the immediate term, will prove effective in the long-term, or, will these tactics prove more like those used by the Soviets, which were also often highly effective in the short-term, but also often forestalled the inevitable, thereby making the things even more chaotic when the bottom finally fell out. I suppose we'll see.
 
#1,194
#1,194
Pacer92 said:
Russians returning home deserve the red carpet, regardless. They've done the region and world a service.

I doubt this peace process last though...jmo..


EDIT: That was intended to quote Louder...
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Putin has done more in 6 months than the US has done in the last 5 years in Syria.
 
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#1,195
#1,195
Pacer92 said:
Russians returning home deserve the red carpet, regardless. They've done the region and world a service.

I doubt this peace process last though...jmo..


EDIT: That was intended to quote Louder...
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I agree with the bolded, but i am talking about straight up propaganda red carpet. harken back to the days of communism.
 
#1,197
#1,197
If the goal of going to Syria was to "bring the fight to ISIS," then Russia failed miserably.

If, however, the goal of going to Syria was to bolster Assad and to make the US look bad, then the brief campaign was a success, at least for the time being.
 
#1,198
#1,198
volprof said:
If the goal of going to Syria was to "bring the fight to ISIS," then Russia failed miserably.

If, however, the goal of going to Syria was to bolster Assad and to make the US look bad, then the brief campaign was a success, at least for the time being.
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Russia did both. ISIS is on the defensive on every major front in Syria.

How did Russia fail? Why is there a semblance of peace now in Syria?

Not because the Russians simply showed up, would you agree?
 
#1,199
#1,199
Pacer92 said:
Russia did both. ISIS is on the defensive on every major front in Syria.

How did Russia fail? Why is there a semblance of peace now in Syria?

Not because the Russians simply showed up, would you agree?
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This is all news to me. Assuming the tentative peace agreement even holds, then someone is actually going to have to go and move ISIS and other jihadists elements out of their strongholds. I don't anticipate that happening anytime soon.

Be careful to avoid the basking in the glory that everyone enjoyed for a month or two after Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech. Nothing has really changed, other than Assad is now less likely to collapse. Syria will still be in crisis for at least 10-20 more years, if things continue at the rate they are currently going. Syria isn't some exceptional place that has figured out how to avoid the long-term disasters that are Iraq and Afghanistan.

But after thinking about things for a few hours yesterday, I came to the conclusion that it's hard to say Russia failed, given that it's objective was to bolster Assad (or someone who would fill his place) and was never to eradicate the threat of terrorism or to make Syria a viable nation again. The latter are examples of Russia learning from America's mistakes. You can't fix things in that part of the world, at least not the extent we have done, and so Russia made no attempt to actually fix anything long-term. Just to keep the status quo firmly entrenched. That's really all they needed.
 
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