Saban blew it...

#2
#2
I'll admit he was off his game tonight. Made a few calls you never see him make
 
#3
#3
Not the worst decision. Trying to win the game in regulation, even if the chance is small, and at a risk of something improbable happening is not a terrible decision. It was a 56-yard FG to win the game. Sure, it was a backup kicker...but, still, 56-yards is not some historic range. The kicker on my high school team could probably hit 56-yard field goals with a success rate of around 25%.
 
#5
#5
Yeah...I think he should be FIRED!!!!

Then Jimmy Cheek can make an offer....
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#6
#6
Bet they wish that 1 second wouldve been burned on previous play. I think saban shot himself in the foot.
 
#7
#7
It was a dumb call. He took the ball out of the Heisman candidate's hands and gave it to a questionable red shirt freshman. All the superior fast athletes were off the field, replaced with slow blockers. Being a low probability FG, with an inexperienced kicker stepping up because of prior poor execution on FGs, it was basically a short kickoff with no one one on the kick team to get the return man. Saban should have given it to the O in OT to go for the higher probability win. Take the knee and be the better team and play to the strengths in OT. McCarron is pretty good at those short throws. He's smart enough to run when needed and probably would have been effective in OT. Kicking an unlikely FG was a poor decision that played to bammer's weaknesses.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4 people
#8
#8
OrangeBloodinTN said:
It was a dumb call. He took the ball out of the Heisman candidate's hands and gave it to a questionable red shirt freshman. All the superior fast athletes were off the field, replaced with slow blockers. Being a low probability FG, with an inexperienced kicker stepping up because of prior poor execution on FGs, it was basically a short kickoff with no one one on the kick team to get the return man. Saban should have given it to the O in OT to go for the higher probability win. Take the knee and be the better team and play to the strengths in OT. McCarron is pretty good at those short throws. He's smart enough to run when needed and probably would have been effective in OT. Kicking an unlikely FG was a poor decision that played to bammer's weaknesses.
Click to expand...

The kid was hitting 50+ yard FGs in high school. The kid was the top kicking recruit in the nation. I'd say it would be reasonable to assume a 25% chance the kid makes the FG, and a less than 20% chance that anyone returns the FG for a game-winning touchdown.

Throwing a Hail Mary? Maybe 1 out of every 10 Hail Marys is successful (and, I still think that is quite high, just from my own three decades of watching football). Sure, the odds of it being intercepted and returned for a TD are probably less than 1%, so it is a less risky move. But, the field goal gives you a better shot at winning the game...and, yes, it comes with a higher risk, but still not a really high risk.
 
#9
#9
He also went for it from the 21 yard line out of arrogance. He wanted to make a point to the kicker and the team. If he just goes ahead and kicks the field goal there, and make it, they go up by 10 and win the game. I love it. Everyone thinks he's some football God or something. The reality is he's a real mean disciplinarian... And that works at the college/high-school level, although most coaches choose not to operate that way. Saban also has some very shady recruiting practices.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#10
#10
chattavol420 said:
He also went for it from the 21 yard line out of arrogance. He wanted to make a point to the kicker and the team. If he just goes ahead and kicks the field goal there, and make it, they go up by 10 and win the game. I love it. Everyone thinks he's some football God or something. The reality is he's a real mean disciplinarian... And that works at the college/high-school level, although most coaches choose not to operate that way. Saban also has some very shady recruiting practices.
Click to expand...

He went for it because 1) he had no confidence in his kicker (and rightly so) and 2) wouldn't you like the odds of your offensive line and Yeldon of getting 1 yard?
 
#13
#13
He had a bad 4th quarter. Dooleyesque. Him not seeing what could happen on a cold night with a long fg is flat out of Dooley's book
 
#14
#14
05_never_again said:
He went for it because 1) he had no confidence in his kicker (and rightly so) and 2) wouldn't you like the odds of your offensive line and Yeldon of getting 1 yard?
Click to expand...

Auburn's D had for the most part kept them in check all night. He shouldve kicked it... Plain and simple. Then he should have played for overtime.
 
#16
#16
chattavol420 said:
Auburn's D had for the most part kept them in check all night. He shouldve kicked it... Plain and simple. Then he should have played for overtime.
Click to expand...

Still...it's one yard. As for holding them in check, Bama rushed for 218 yards on 35 carries (6.2 per). They ran the ball well as usual
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#17
#17
therealUT said:
The kid was hitting 50+ yard FGs in high school. The kid was the top kicking recruit in the nation. I'd say it would be reasonable to assume a 25% chance the kid makes the FG, and a less than 20% chance that anyone returns the FG for a game-winning touchdown.

Throwing a Hail Mary? Maybe 1 out of every 10 Hail Marys is successful (and, I still think that is quite high, just from my own three decades of watching football). Sure, the odds of it being intercepted and returned for a TD are probably less than 1%, so it is a less risky move. But, the field goal gives you a better shot at winning the game...and, yes, it comes with a higher risk, but still not a really high risk.
Click to expand...

But the highest probability was OT and Saban's call made sure the bammers didn't sniff it. I don't know how you got the specific numbers for your probabilities, but whatever. Internet math. It's fun to think about this stuff and make guesses.

I think the RS freshman, Griffith, hits that FG far fewer than your guess of 1 in 4, or 25%. This isn't practice. This ain't high school, and 56 in a high pressure college game between #1 and #4 in on unfriendly turf is a far cry from a 50 or 51 against a bunch of nobodies at bumblefudge county HS or wherever. If I remember right, they said Griffith was 1 for 2 for the year when he took the field tonight. 50%. Not good. And this was 56 yards, a challenge for elite and experienced kickers. Factor that bammer's FG unit was already a huge letdown tonight. They were 0-3 and that wasn't all on the starting kicker, Cade Foster. Bammer had too many variables to add into the uncertainty of this high pressure, low probability kick. Blocks. Poor snaps. Bad kicks. Loud atmosphere. Being frozen by the well-placed Malzahn TO. Injury. Inexperience. And then there's a chance of a short kick that gets returned. It goes on and on. You lose more than 25 in probability points. Griffith was at 50% as he stepped up to make the kick and this was a lengthy kick that drops the prob much lower.

Saban should have called a Hail Mary or had McCarron knee it. Go to OT with your experienced and proven winners. The game was 50-50 at worst if bammer goes to OT. There was too much risk with the anemic bammer FG unit to put the game in their hands, and that is what ultimately did them in tonight.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#18
#18
Clearly, Saban overestimated his kicker. He said he was making them from 60 in practice, but this kick was from 56 with a slight breeze behind him, and he was about 2 yards short.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#19
#19
05_never_again said:
Clearly, Saban overestimated his kicker. He said he was making them from 60 in practice, but this kick was from 56 with a slight breeze behind him, and he was about 2 yards short.
Click to expand...

That kick needed a bit more than two yards to get over the post. And it was wide right.
 
#21
#21
Where the hell is bama writer when you want him. Maybe he could shed some light on all the Dumbazz decisions Saban made tonight
 
#23
#23
I don't blame Saban on the last play. If it comes down to throwing a hail mary vs a kick then I agree with his choice.

a) His kicker had already let him down. He has one (probably the best) kicker recruit.
b) The odds of kicking it short are less than missing wide (IMO) and the odds of having it returned are far less than the probability of making a hail mary.
c) Who's to say the game comes down to another kick in OT where you don't get a 2nd chance? Saban assumed this kick is meaningless (it normally is with 1 second left). He assumed if they missed it would go into OT and Bama had a good shot to win.

Now if there was an option to take a knee then I'd do that. But for the sake of the argument that's just what I think if it comes down to kicking vs throwing.
 
#24
#24
LittleCat said:
I don't blame Saban on the last play. If it comes down to throwing a hail mary vs a kick then I agree with his choice.

a) His kicker had already let him down. He has one (probably the best) kicker recruit.
b) The odds of kicking it short are less than missing wide (IMO) and the odds of having it returned are far less than the probability of making a hail mary.
c) Who's to say the game comes down to another kick in OT where you don't get a 2nd chance? Saban assumed this kick is meaningless (it normally is with 1 second left). He assumed if they missed it would go into OT and Bama had a good shot to win.

Now if there was an option to take a knee then I'd do that. But for the sake of the argument that's just what I think if it comes down to kicking vs throwing.
Click to expand...

I agree that a kick had a better shot than a throw. But in my mind, it's just a big risk to take in that situation. With that long of a kick, it's possibly gonna be low so you have a shot at a block. Then if you miss, it's likely short so a chance to return vs a group of linemen who are not prepared to tackle in the open field. So ultimately I think a throw was probably a lower risk play as I can't think of a time that I can ever remember seeing the defensive team score on a hail mary attempt. So with a throw, less of a chance you score but also much greater chance you don't lose on that play, IMO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#25
#25
volstopfan14 said:
I agree that a kick had a better shot than a throw. But in my mind, it's just a big risk to take in that situation. With that long of a kick, it's possibly gonna be low so you have a shot at a block. Then if you miss, it's likely short so a chance to return vs a group of linemen who are not prepared to tackle in the open field. So ultimately I think a throw was probably a lower risk play as I can't think of a time that I can ever remember seeing the defensive team score on a hail mary attempt. So with a throw, less of a chance you score but also much greater chance you don't lose on that play, IMO.
Click to expand...

After last week's AU win, I promise the AU defenders would have been coached to knock a hail Mary down, as opposed to intercepting.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top