Saban blew it...

#52
#52
therealUT said:
Not the worst decision. Trying to win the game in regulation, even if the chance is small, and at a risk of something improbable happening is not a terrible decision. It was a 56-yard FG to win the game. Sure, it was a backup kicker...but, still, 56-yards is not some historic range. The kicker on my high school team could probably hit 56-yard field goals with a success rate of around 25%.
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they said he was making 60 yarders pre game warm ups.

Whst were the odds it would be run back for a TD?
 
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#55
#55
bamawriter said:
If it was short, the odds are better than 50/50.
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50/50 he runs it back 100 yards? Lol what u smoking?

If it was 50/50 than half the kick off returns would be run back for a touchdown.. Tampa Bay just got their first run back in history not that long ago! So it's far from 50/ 50
 
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#56
#56
volmaverick said:
50/50 he runs it back 100 yards? Lol what u smoking?

If it was 50/50 than half the kick off returns would be run back for a touchdown.. Tampa Bay just got their first run back in history not that long ago! So it's far from 50/ 50
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Kick coverage teams are composed much differently than FG protection teams.
 
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#61
#61
I don't know about as a whole for the entire season, but that particular situation the chances of it being returned were probably about 50/50.

57 yard FG, huge amount of real estate, a bunch of slow lineman and kickers there to cover....as soon as he fielded the kick I had a feeling this could go, if not all the way, at least for a big chunk of yards.
 
#64
#64
rjd970 said:
I don't know about as a whole for the entire season, but that particular situation the chances of it being returned were probably about 50/50.

57 yard FG, huge amount of real estate, a bunch of slow lineman and kickers there to cover....as soon as he fielded the kick I had a feeling this could go, if not all the way, at least for a big chunk of yards.
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In a situation like that, the rule of thumb for the kicker ought to be kick it as hard as you can, with aiming the kick of secondary and relatively low importance.
 
#66
#66
volmaverick said:
ok twice.. compared to the short fg that were not run back?
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Sorry, I should have said short enough to remain in play.

But to your point, teams don't always put a return man back. It's a situational thing. Last nite, AU had nothing to lose by putting a returner back. Worst case scenario was overtime.
 
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#67
#67
Better question would be I guess

with 1 sec left what were the odds that game went to overtime? Very high??

I would've threw hell marry..
 
#68
#68
Interesting to me is that Saban at Bama is 7-5 in November. Part of that is probably the schedule (like UT used to own November due to KY and VU) but wonder what the other part is.
 
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#69
#69
volmaverick said:
Better question would be I guess

with 1 sec left what were the odds that game went to overtime? Very high??

I would've threw hell marry..
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Agreed. There is no way I risk kicking it short. A hail mary is much less likely to come back to bite you.

That being said, Bama would've lost in OT.
 
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#70
#70
bamawriter said:
Sorry, I should have said short enough to remain in play.

But to your point, teams don't always put a return man back. It's a situational thing. Last nite, AU had nothing to lose by putting a returner back. Worst case scenario was overtime.
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For a last second long FG a team would always put someone back for a return - no risk in it.
 
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#71
#71
volinbham said:
Interesting to me is that Saban at Bama is 7-5 in November. Part of that is probably the schedule (like UT used to own November due to KY and VU) but wonder what the other part is.
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It's all schedule, really. Look at the records of the teams Bama has played in November during that stretch.

We've also had hideous kicking breakdowns in November.
 
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#72
#72
bamawriter said:
It's all schedule, really. Look at the records of the teams Bama has played in November during that stretch.

We've also had hideous kicking breakdowns in November.
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I agree that the schedule is the biggest factor. Announcers last night speculated that people had a chance to "figure" them out by the end of the season and I can see that if UA is very formulaic through out any given season. Seems UA wins via overpowering teams rather than scheming them (at least on offense). Could be overconfidence or any other number of factors too.
 
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#73
#73
That guy should hsve been kicking field goals from the get go

if he had just made one that the other guy missed we wouldnt be talking about this right now

and I would say that those chances would have been high that he made one of them
 
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#74
#74
volmaverick said:
That guy should hsve been kicking field goals from the get go

if he had just made one that the other guy missed we wouldnt be talking about this right now

and I would say that those chances would have been high that he made one of them
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Foster had been having a very good year - no way you bench him for a freshman.

The "if he had made just one" completely discounts how Auburn would react to a different scoring scenario. It's meaningless unless it's the last play of the game.
 
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