Simple: vols get in the playoffs IF:

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

They always have. Right or wrong.

This is a bit different

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

To one of the worst P5 offense we’ve played though

Georgia?

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

For some stupid reason, Ole Miss' loss to Kentucky - at home, no less!! - doesn't seem to be hurting them like our loss to a better Arkansas team on the road. We beat Bama, Ole Miss beat Georgia, which should be a wash. Comes down to which of those bad losses is worse, and for whatever reason it appears that the consensus of the ridiculous "committee" is ours.

Failing to posterize Kentucky may come back to bite us. Ole Miss left no doubt against Arky.

 

[C-south]

Georgia?

Georgia is as bad this year as they’ve been in a long time. We got outcoached badly yesterday instead of just not having the horses to compete.

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

Georgia is as bad this year as they’ve been in a long time. We got outcoached badly yesterday instead of just not having the horses to compete.

You mean they're not quite as good as usual

I doubt you can detail how we got so outcoached

 

[C-south]

You mean they're not quite as good as usual

I doubt you can detail how we got so outcoached

I doubt you would understand.

 

[bpalmer28]

This is a bit different

Only because there are automatic qualifiers and more positions to fill. I mean I don't want to be so arrogant as to think I can't be wrong but if the selection criteria is the same for at-large teams as it has been in years past I don't know why their approach to championship weekend would be any different than it used to be.

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

Only because there are automatic qualifiers and more positions to fill. I mean I don't want to be so arrogant as to think I can't be wrong but if the selection criteria is the same for at-large teams as it has been in years past I don't know why their approach to championship weekend would be any different than it used to be.

More spots changes the dynamic of conference championship losers imo. You aren’t trying to nitpick to find the top 4

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

I doubt you would understand.

That's a funny thing to say to someone who has forgotten more about it than you know about it

 

[C-south]

That's a funny thing to say to someone who has forgotten more about it than you know about it

Lol. I’m sure.

 

[Ty4Vols]

Teams above Tennessee that do not have a win over a CFP contender or even a current top 25 team:
1. Texas: SOS 38 / A&M remaining
2. Penn St: SOS 35/ no ranked teams remaining
3. Indiana: SOS 106 / OSU remaining
4. Miami: SOS 54 / no ranked teams remaining

Sadly this is 33% of the top 12 with only 2 weeks remaining. When will the CFP be able to properly compare teams based on schedule & results and not just record?

For comparison:
Tennessee: SOS 18 / no ranked teams remaining. Beat Bama

Looking at the top 30 in SOS the only teams with a legitimate shot at the CFP are:
1. UGA: SOS 1 / 8-2 / wins over UT & TX
2. BAMA: SOS 16 / 8-2/ wins over UGA & USCe
3. UT: SOS 18 / 8-2/ win over BAMA
4. A&M: SOS 25 / 8-2/ no top 25 win
5. OSU: SOS 28 / 9-1 / win over Penn St
6. Ole Miss: SOS 29 / 8-2/ wins over UGA & USCe

One could/should conclude that based on difficulty of schedule only UGA has performed better than Tennessee in the SEC. With BAMA and UT so close in SOS and the Vols hold the H2H win this really doesn't feel like a stretch by any means. BAMA has a remaining SOS of 12 while UT is 69. This would allow BAMA to increase their SOS versus UT but should not trump H2H.

This is my case that the Vols should be easily in the CFP if they win their last 2 games.

This is pure factual data not someone's opinion of their perception. This data doesn't have feelings or bias. This is 100% the way it has played out on the field.

All of the following teams have a serious shot at the CFP (some are ridiculous):
Oregon: SOS 48
Notre Dame: SOS 82
SMU: SOS 86
Colorado: SOS 73
Boise St: SOS 76
BYU: SOS 53
ARMY: SOS 133

Looking at SEC losses and FPI:
ARK: FPI 32 (beat UT)
VANDY: FPI 38 (beat Bama)
UK: FPI 46 (beat Ole Miss in Oxford)

Worst loss is clearly Ole Miss losing to UK followed by Bama @ Vandy then Vols @ ARK.

Best wins using FPI:
UGA win against (1) TX / (9) UT
Vols win against (2) Bama / (26) UF
Bama win against (5) UGA / (13) USCe
Ole Miss win against (5) UGA / (13) USCe
TX win against (26) UF / (27) OU
A&M win against (19) LSU/ (24) MIZZOU


Rankings should be as follows (SEC):
1. UGA 8-2 / FPI 5 / SOS 1/ Top25 wins (3) *H2H vs TX
2. TX 9-1 / FPI 1 / SOS 38 / Top25 wins (none)
3. UT 8-2 / FPI 9 / SOS 18 / Top25 wins (1) *H2H vs BAMA
4. BAMA 8-2 / FPI 2 / SOS 16 / Top25 wins (2)
5. Ole Miss 8-2 / FPI 6 / SOS 29 / Top25 wins (2) *worst loss against UK
6. A&M 8-2 / FPI 14 / SOS 25 / Top25 wins (none)

 

[volfeeva]

Arkansas should be in the playoffs ahead of us since they beat us.

Bama beat #1 Georgia, and Vandy beat Bama , so Vandy should have been #1 in the country

 

[Golfprovol]

Current projection

 

[C-south]

Bama beat #1 Georgia, and Vandy beat Bama , so Vandy should have been #1 in the country

Yep

 

[OldLofter]

well let’s just for the love of god beat Vandy first

Exactly! And the ’dores will pull out all stops to beat us. This will not be a walk in the park.
Sugar Bowl?

 

[OrangeRaid Vol #1]

But they did escape. We failed at that vs Arky. Like BOT pointed out, we have no one to blame but ourselves. We didn't handle business so we have no room to complain if the process leaves us on the outside looking in.

Good grief, bama lost to Vandy

 

[bpalmer28]

More spots changes the dynamic of conference championship losers imo. You aren’t trying to nitpick to find the top 4

Fair point. I can see where more teams my give them some flexibility to do the “right thing”

 

[ZoeVol]

There’s still plenty of viable paths. But we need help.

UF vs Ole Miss
Bama vs Oklahoma/Auburn
ND vs Army/USC
Georgia vs Georgia tech (not happening)
Ohio state beating the doors off Indiana (maybe the most likely)

After running the ESPN Allstate playoff predictor it looks like it favors Bama over Texas in the SECCG which drops Texas out the playoff. SEC gets four teams in many if its iterations - Bama, Georgia, Tennessee, and last in is Old Miss

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Wonder if we'll have a rash of "injuries" vs UTEP and if we have another bad loss in us in Nashville? By then the message on the playoffs will be pretty clear. If we ain't in it, I wonder about our collective mindset. Vandy will be ready and waiting to take us down.

The message isn’t going to be clear until November 30. We have to win the last 2 games and play well or everything is a moot point. Why would you question our resolve at this point. If we don’t play hard from here on out we didn’t deserve it anyway. You sound like a defeatist fan quite frankly. GBO

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Does anyone else feel dirty knowing we have to root for the Gators next weekend. I feel like it is a stench that is going to linger.

No, we beat the gators it only helps us. GBO!

 

[Jaxon_Vol2017]

Every mock I've seen has us making the playoffs. So as long as we win out we still got a shot,

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

Nor should they

But it is still part of their body of work. Not just IF they lose, but how. So, yeah, they count too. A bigger loss at a neutral site should be worse in calculation of a loss on the road, not as much as a loss at home, etc.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

I guess I'm overly paranoid. I see everyone running through these playoff scenarios and I guess it's just assumed we're going to beat Vandy.

A game on the road against a well coached team with a good QB that's makes a ton of plays with his legs is my main concern right now.

That QB is fighting injuries right now. He's carrying that team.

 

[Vfl2407]

I guess I'm overly paranoid. I see everyone running through these playoff scenarios and I guess it's just assumed we're going to beat Vandy.

A game on the road against a well coached team with a good QB that's makes a ton of plays with his legs is my main concern right now.

Calling playing at Vandy a road game, while technically correct, is not your typical road game.
I think it’s an 11am Nashville time start.
So, if Vandy comes in a little pummeled (especially Pavia) from a loss at LSU while the Vols are getting some guys healthy in an easy UTEP WIN, I won’t be as worried about Vandy as I am about needing some other games across the country to go our way that day.

 

[Vol4ever]

We didn't take care of business. This team is so undisciplined. You can't have dumb penalties that stop drives or allow the other team to move the sticks.