Since gas prices are dropping...

#51
#51
OWB said:
Sometimes it only takes a little common sense. While I doubt that anyone on here could provide real proof that Oil companies, traders, secretaries, mailroom workers etc etc are manipulating prices for election results, nobody can provide serious proof that they aren't either.

Do you really think that would be a lot of proof when it comes to something like this?
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It only takes the same amount of common sense to believe the DNC is trying to undermine the effort in Iraq to bolster their position...

There is so much evidence pointing to the economic reasons for prices drops that you must ignore it all to believe that somehow your theory is right. I can post 100's of articles and analyses that all point to the same dynamics affecting oil and gas prices but it won't change your mind.

For your theory to be true you have to present some plausible mechanism by which oil companies are first - manipulating world oil prices because they have definitely dropped; second - how they are manipulating gas prices (something they have more control of but will hit them squarely in the pocketbook).

Since oil prices have dropped (fact) the second form of potential manipulation is less needed.

First and foremost, oil companies are about maximizing shareholder wealth (e.g. stock price). They are analyzed quarterly (even more frequently). To sacrifice profit margin today to ensure a more favorable climate (theoretically) in the future would drop their stock price and violate their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. This has the potential to destroy the companies or at least oust the management and Board of Directors. In the age of Sarbanes Oxley -- this ain't going to happen.

Believe what you want but believing it doesn't make it true.
 
#52
#52
It only takes the same amount of common sense to believe the DNC is trying to undermine the effort in Iraq to bolster their position...
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Yeah, we're really doing some good over there. I was just reading today that Al Queada could possibly take over Iraq once we leave. Boy, that sounds MUCH better than what we had before.

There is so much evidence pointing to the economic reasons for prices drops that you must ignore it all to believe that somehow your theory is right. I can post 100's of articles and analyses that all point to the same dynamics affecting oil and gas prices but it won't change your mind.
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Like we've been arguing the whole time, prices were up before Hurricane season, before the Israel mess and on and on. If you don't think it's fishy they're dropping just before elections (just like in 2004), then that's fine, you don't have to. But it doesn't mean that it's not suspicious.

For your theory to be true you have to present some plausible mechanism by which oil companies are first - manipulating world oil prices because they have definitely dropped; second - how they are manipulating gas prices (something they have more control of but will hit them squarely in the pocketbook).
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So you don't think that companies have control over their prices?

Do you really think they're worried about getting hit in the pocketbook after all the record profits? This is just a case of spending some money to make some money (if you can call it spending considering they're still make huge amounts) If it works, prices will soar to new highs and they'll make it back two fold.

First and foremost, oil companies are about maximizing shareholder wealth (e.g. stock price). They are analyzed quarterly (even more frequently). To sacrifice profit margin today to ensure a more favorable climate (theoretically) in the future would drop their stock price and violate their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. This has the potential to destroy the companies or at least oust the management and Board of Directors. In the age of Sarbanes Oxley -- this ain't going to happen.

Believe what you want but believing it doesn't make it true.
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Ok, so when prices drop before the election and then start to steadily climb again to new highs after elections, I'm supposed to believe and accept that that's just the way it goes? I'm sure the Republicans would love it if everyone had that outlook.. :yes:
 
#53
#53
:mf_surrender:

As long as you believe that republicans are bad and democrats are good, no amount of facts will change your mind.
 
#54
#54
volinbham said:
:mf_surrender:

As long as you believe that republicans are bad and democrats are good, no amount of facts will change your mind.
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I guess I should've gone with the "it's a gut instinct and then Jesus later confirmed that I was right" approach. That would've probably stamped out any resistance. :whistling:

P.S. All you had to do was answer my original question to avoid the "bickering". Would the campaign donations be considered illegal IF this was in fact happening? :p
 
#55
#55
Okay, I couldn't resist just one more chance for enlightenment :p

Do you really think they're worried about getting hit in the pocketbook after all the record profits? This is just a case of spending some money to make some money (if you can call it spending considering they're still make huge amounts) If it works, prices will soar to new highs and they'll make it back two fold.
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Profits are past tense. Two problems with this line of thinking. First, all public companies file financial statements with the SEC and must be audited. The spending money alluded to above would in fact be profit sacrifice rather than real spending. (e.g. lowering price while costs didn't drop). The result would show on the income statement and balance sheet. It would have to be explained. The actions you are suggesting would be a violation and likely result in the ouster of the management team, BOD and any other participants.

If they tried to hide the manipulation, the auditors and forensic accountants would find it and we now have an Enron, Global Crossings, HealthSouth, etc. With new rules, all involved would face the rest of their lives in prison.

Second, past profits are only somewhat related to stock price. For example, Exxon's stock price could actually have gone down when they announced record profits if Wall Street expected their profits to be higher than they actually were. Results vs. future expectations is what drives stock prices. This explains why companies like Amazon that lost money for years experienced huge gains in stock prices.

The strategy you suggest would drive down the stock price since earnings would come in below estimates. Unless all participants in the stock market are aware of the secret plan to elect Republicans, they would not factor the drop in profit into their quarterly estimates. The resulting drop in stock price would raise scrutiny of financial statements to see why profits didn't match expectations. The plot would be exposed.

The oil companies don't fear a switch in the House and or Senate enough to take these risks. Common sense says so...
 
#56
#56
OWB said:
P.S. All you had to do was answer my original question to avoid the "bickering". Would the campaign donations be considered illegal IF this was in fact happening? :p
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If oil companies were sacrificing profit to help Republicans win the midterms it probably wouldn't be illegal from a campaign finance perspective since there aren't real donations to any candidates or party organizations.

However, they would be violating fiduciary related laws which are MUCH more serious.

How's that? :hi:
 
#58
#58
OWB said:
Ok work with me here people. It's pretty obvious that gas prices are dropping because of the midterm elections coming up so here is an interesting question that I read somewhere else...

Are the oil companies reducing the price of gas to help Republicans get elected? If they are, would that be considered an illegal campaign contribution?

Talk amongst yourselves..
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After careful consideration this reminds me of Will Ferrell as Harry Caray:



Harry Caray: Hey! Would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs?

Ken Waller: What?

Harry Caray: I know I would. Heck! I'd have seconds and then polish it off with a tall cool Budweiser. ------ I would do it. Would you?
Ken Waller: I'm confused.
Harry Caray: It's a simple question Dr, would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs?
Ken Waller: I don't know how to answer that.
Harry Caray: It's not rocket science, just say yes and we'll move on.
 
#59
#59
I think I posted this before but it deserves repeating.

Democratic talking points as oil prices went up:

"Oil company profits are outrageous!!!"

"Jail the CEO's until they make the prices come down!!!"

"Tax the "windfall profits!"

"Da po' an' shifless cain't afford no gayus!!! They cayn't affoad to dri' to da soup kitchen!!"

"Oh! The onion bagel won't come off ! Oh! Oh!"

(That last was gratuitous but accurately portrays reportage from the LWM.)*

Republican talking points in the same time frame:

"There have been a series of events (Katrina, etc.) that have caused our refinery capacity to suffer a temporary drop. Add to that the role of oil speculators in driving the price up and a price spike should be expected. If we'll just calm down and let the market work, prices will level off and then begin to decline."

"Oil companies make only a few cents per gallon. This profit is pretty much fixed. However, they do have to increase prices in a rising market - not to pay for gas already at the station - but to pay for the oil they have to buy next week which may cost more."

"If rising prices cause people to drive less, the gasoline supply situation should level out and prices moderate."

Republican talking points since prices began to moderate recently:

"The market works."

Democrat Talking points since prices began to moderate:

** crickets chirping **

** crickets chirping **

"It's all a plot by Karl Rove!!!"

BTW, a major hedge fund company is going t*ts up because they bet most of their assets that natural gas prices would skyrocket toward the end of summer and that at least one hurrcane would hit the Gulf and curtail production. They've lost something like $3-4 billion in the last few days.

A Hedge Fund’s Loss Rattles Nerves - New York Times

The hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, based in Greenwich, Conn., made an estimated $1 billion on rising energy prices last year. Yesterday, the fund told its investors that it had lost more than $3 billion in the recent downturn in natural gas and that it was working with its lenders and selling its holdings “to protect our investors.”

Amaranth’s investors include pension funds, endowments and large financial firms like banks, insurance companies and brokerage firms. The Institutional Fund of Hedge Funds at Morgan Stanley was an investor in Amaranth; as of June 30, it had a stake valued at $124 million. The turnabout in the fortunes of the $9.25 billion fund reflects the decline in energy prices recently; natural gas prices fell 12 percent just last week.
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The market giveth and the market taketh away.

The important thing is, the market works better to solve problems like rising energy prices than any governmental program, legislation or factotum that ever existed.

(*LWM = Left Wing Media)
 
#63
#63
P.S. I'll be sure to tell you all I told you so when the prices start skyrocketing again after the elections. Just like when I said a while back that prices would drop considerably right before elections.

Last I checked, it's not a conspiracy theory if it's actually happening.
 
#64
#64
OWB said:
P.S. I'll be sure to tell you all I told you so when the prices start skyrocketing again after the elections. Just like when I said a while back that prices would drop considerably right before elections.

Last I checked, it's not a conspiracy theory if it's actually happening.
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Sure, um whatever you say boss.

Meanwhile, let's all learn a new phrase. Can you say "Spurious Relationship"? I knew that you could.

Spurious relationship - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
#67
#67
volinbham said:
I kinda thought you were the one making stuff up :dunno: :p
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When you notice a mosquito bite on your body and it's itching like crazy, you know it's a mosquito bite, even if you never actually see the mosquito bite you.
 
#68
#68
OWB said:
When you notice a mosquito bite on your body and it's itching like crazy, you know it's a mosquito bite, even if you never actually see the mosquito bite you.
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Sounds like West Nile Virus to me. I'd get that checked out but it does explain some things...:whistling:
 
#69
#69
OWB said:
P.S. I'll be sure to tell you all I told you so when the prices start skyrocketing again after the elections. Just like when I said a while back that prices would drop considerably right before elections.

Last I checked, it's not a conspiracy theory if it's actually happening.[/quote]

Not good logic. Just because a result has occured does not mean the result is due to the factors you present.
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#70
#70
OWB said:
When you notice a mosquito bite on your body and it's itching like crazy, you know it's a mosquito bite, even if you never actually see the mosquito bite you.
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Yes, you know it's a mosquito bite, but the conspiracy theorists will tell you it's a microscopic gunshot wound.
 
#71
#71
You got it all wrong....do I have to explain everything? These mosquitoes are actually electronic chip injectors developed at Groom Lake to tag and identify everyone. A chip is implanted and a sample of blood is taken and returned to a huge database.

Get with the program here....
 
#72
#72
That mosquito is buzzing again. OPEC (Notice that it's the same number of letters as ROVE, has two of the same letters and the P is kinda close to an R and a C on it's side and modified could be a V) is having a meeting to consider reducing production to stabilize prices.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/26/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

Just to support the liberal theory more, I bet this won't happen until the first Wednesday of November...
 
#73
#73
I sick of these damn oil companies. We get a slight relief and they say gas prices are too low? How much money do these vampire demons need?
 
#74
#74
TheGimp said:
I sick of these damn oil companies. We get a slight relief and they say gas prices are too low? How much money do these vampire demons need?
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In this case, it's not the oil companies. It's OPEC - some of the oil producing countries.
 
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