Six to 10?

#402
#402
Vol8188 said:
I'm extremely familiar with the competition, apparently you aren't if you truly believe we were supposed to win 6 games.

Name the 6 teams that we should have beat.
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this team could have very well went into the third Sat in Oct with only the Oregon loss.
 
#411
#411
Apparently we hired someone who isn't very adaptive and can only win with his players in his system. I've actually read posts on here defending this as a long term strategy that trumps immediate wins as if it's too much to ask the head coach to walk and chew bubblegum simultaneously. It's the new paradigm and to question it here is like planting a banana tree outside the monkey house. I'm just hoping for two good recruiting classes out of this crew.
 
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#413
#413
VolunteerHillbilly said:
Kiffin and Dooley both went to bowl games in their first seasons. Not real though.
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Exactly they weren't real coaches. Both had losing records before coming to UT. Kiffin walked into a program with well coached players. Dooley reaped the benefits of Kiffin's recruiting. Kiffin was a good recruiter, crappy coach. How can this be questionable?
 
#414
#414
You still have to know how to win as a team. This they never learned. The coaching carousel is to blame. I hope they wake up in the NFL.
 
#415
#415
BigOrangeTrain said:
Exactly they weren't real coaches. Both had losing records before coming to UT. Kiffin walked into a program with well coached players. Dooley reaped the benefits of Kiffin's recruiting. Kiffin was a good recruiter, crappy coach. How can this be questionable?
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How many times was Kiffin blown out at UT? He didn't inherit well coached players. He inherited the remnants of a poorly disciplined, poorly coached team. The OL recruiting had been so bad that they were forced to start two 265 lb walkons.

I HATE being in a position to have to take up for a louse like Kiffin but for you to claim that you "know" Jones is a "real" coach when he did not even match the results of the two previous coaches in his first year is nothing but wishful thinking.

Jones may end up being able to walk on water... but for you to claim he's somehow proven that... is delusional. FYI, he's no longer coaching at Cincy against competition with about a 40% win rate.
 
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#416
#416
VolunteerHillbilly said:
Apparently we hired someone who isn't very adaptive and can only win with his players in his system. I've actually read posts on here defending this as a long term strategy that trumps immediate wins as if it's too much to ask the head coach to walk and chew bubblegum simultaneously. It's the new paradigm and to question it here is like planting a banana tree outside the monkey house. I'm just hoping for two good recruiting classes out of this crew.
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HERESY!!!!! You can't make objective criticisms of the coaching staff here.
 
#417
#417
BigOrangeTrain said:
Our schedule was way harder than Vandys even before Mizzou and Auburn got good. No comparison.
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That's a somewhat misleading statement. Our strength of schedule was 11 and Vandy's was 54. But the difference between 11 and 54 is not a lot according to Sagarin. Vanderbilt's SOS was 70.25 rating but ours was only 76.94. So, even though there was a lot of difference in ranking there was not a lot of difference in the math. That means there were a lot of teams with pretty tough schedules through about the top 60 teams. And, all of the SEC teams were in that top 60. My point is it wasn't a whole lot harder. They beat both Georgia and Florida and beat us and we beat South Carolina and they didn't but played at Carolina. They will probably end up 9-4 and us 5-7. Does the strength of schedule justify 4 more wins? I don't think so.
 
#418
#418
Sandvol said:
That's a somewhat misleading statement. Our strength of schedule was 11 and Vandy's was 54. But the difference between 11 and 54 is not a lot according to Sagarin. Vanderbilt's SOS was 70.25 rating but ours was only 76.94. So, even though there was a lot of difference in ranking there was not a lot of difference in the math. That means there were a lot of teams with pretty tough schedules through about the top 60 teams. And, all of the SEC teams were in that top 60. My point is it wasn't a whole lot harder. They beat both Georgia and Florida and beat us and we beat South Carolina and they didn't but played at Carolina. They will probably end up 9-4 and us 5-7. Does the strength of schedule justify 4 more wins? I don't think so.
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I think the difference in SoS is greater than those numbers show. Here are a few random observations of Franklin's three year tenure at Vandy, and compare that to your knowledge of UT's past three years.

Here is a summary (cut and pasted from another post of mine):

In three years, the teams that Vandy has beaten average a 4-8 record. 6 of the 23 individual victories of Vandy's came against teams who were so bad that the HC was replaced (that's almost 1 out of every 4 teams they beat). Vandy has only beaten 4 teams in three years who were bowl eligible (17% of their victories -or- two whole games less than the number of teams that were so bad that their coach was fired). Vandy, under Franklin, has never beaten a team that finished the regular season with more than 8 wins. The one time they have beaten a team with 8 regular season wins was this year against UGA. UGA's whole offense was basically benched for that game due to injuries.

This year UT's western division games came against Auburn and Bama ( two of the most talented teams in the SEC with a combined 2 losses between them) to Vandy's western division games (9 losses between them, both mid pack talent wise). Looking at the numbers, I believe firmly that UT goes 1-1 against Vandy's SEC west competition, accounting for 1 of the four game differences you described.

How about this: 10 of the 23 Vandy victories under Franklin came against teams with 3 wins or less.

Read that again, in three years, almost half of Vandy's miraculous wins came against teams who couldn't....win....4....games.

I think this removes any doubt that UT's schedule is exponentially harder over a series of seasons. The gap between the two teams insofar as SoS is much larger than you want to see. In fact, I think it is inarguable that if UT scheduled like Vandy (you know, not playing Oregon and instead schedules UMASS, or UAB, a WF - teams that totaled 7 wins this season), UT would also be going to a bowl (accounting for another of the win total difference).

While I don't believe that "intangibles" play a mathematically significant role in the outcome of football games, there is something to be said about the toll that a difficult schedule takes on a team emotionally and physically. Vandy avoids that punishment, UT hasn't. Is that physical and emotional toll enough to account for a 4 point swing in the outcome of one late season game? Perhaps that could account for one game in the win loss totals?

General Neyland thought so, as he famously scheduled "breathers" to make sure that his team only played a few tough games throughout a season. Those tougher games were to be separated by enough easier games to allow his teams to recover. He took much criticism for that tactic, and arguably that kept some of his UT teams out of the national title discussion on more than one occasion.

tl;dr
Scheduling and related events could account for a 3-4 game difference in win totals between Vandy and UT, as well as potentially changing the outcome of the UT v. Vandy head-to-head.
 
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#419
#419
sjt18 said:
How many times was Kiffin blown out at UT? He didn't inherit well coached players. He inherited the remnants of a poorly disciplined, poorly coached team. The OL recruiting had been so bad that they were forced to start two 265 lb walkons.

I HATE being in a position to have to take up for a louse like Kiffin but for you to claim that you "know" Jones is a "real" coach when he did not even match the results of the two previous coaches in his first year is nothing but wishful thinking.

Jones may end up being able to walk on water... but for you to claim he's somehow proven that... is delusional. FYI, he's no longer coaching at Cincy against competition with about a 40% win rate.
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You've got to stop posting this stuff, sjt18, because it undermines your good work elsewhere.

We've become progressively worse because Kiffin inherited the best coached team we've seen since. It was so well coached, we would have wanted the Sullin twins on the line this year with our NFL line.

Kiffin inherited a load of NFL talent - talent he proved he could not evaluate - and a team of well-coached winners. He did not "fix" Crompton, and Kiffin had a few major blow-outs late because the team became worse under his "leadership."
 
#420
#420
VolunteerHillbilly said:
Apparently we hired someone who isn't very adaptive and can only win with his players in his system.
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The O he inherited was arguably better suited for running the I formation over the read option, so he spooled up the I formation ............... In game 11?
 
#421
#421
daj2576 said:
I think the difference in SoS is greater than those numbers show. Here are a few random observations of Franklin's three year tenure at Vandy, and compare that to your knowledge of UT's past three years.

Here is a summary (cut and pasted from another post of mine):

In three years, the teams that Vandy has beaten average a 4-8 record. 6 of the 23 individual victories of Vandy's came against teams who were so bad that the HC was replaced (that's almost 1 out of every 4 teams they beat). Vandy has only beaten 4 teams in three years who were bowl eligible (17% of their victories -or- two whole games less than the number of teams that were so bad that their coach was fired). Vandy, under Franklin, has never beaten a team that finished the regular season with more than 8 wins. The one time they have beaten a team with 8 regular season wins was this year against UGA. UGA's whole offense was basically benched for that game due to injuries.

This year UT's western division games came against Auburn and Bama ( two of the most talented teams in the SEC with a combined 2 losses between them) to Vandy's western division games (9 losses between them, both mid pack talent wise). Looking at the numbers, I believe firmly that UT goes 1-1 against Vandy's SEC west competition, accounting for 1 of the four game differences you described.

How about this: 10 of the 23 Vandy victories under Franklin came against teams with 3 wins or less.

Read that again, in three years, almost half of Vandy's miraculous wins came against teams who couldn't....win....4....games.

I think this removes any doubt that UT's schedule is exponentially harder over a series of seasons. The gap between the two teams insofar as SoS is much larger than you want to see. In fact, I think it is inarguable that if UT scheduled like Vandy (you know, not playing Oregon and instead schedules UMASS, or UAB, a WF - teams that totaled 7 wins this season), UT would also be going to a bowl (accounting for another of the win total difference).

While I don't believe that "intangibles" play a mathematically significant role in the outcome of football games, there is something to be said about the toll that a difficult schedule takes on a team emotionally and physically. Vandy avoids that punishment, UT hasn't. Is that physical and emotional toll enough to account for a 4 point swing in the outcome of one late season game? Perhaps that could account for one game in the win loss totals?

General Neyland thought so, as he famously scheduled "breathers" to make sure that his team only played a few tough games throughout a season. Those tougher games were to be separated by enough easier games to allow his teams to recover. He took much criticism for that tactic, and arguably that kept some of his UT teams out of the national title discussion on more than one occasion.

tl;dr
Scheduling and related events could account for a 3-4 game difference in win totals between Vandy and UT, as well as potentially changing the outcome of the UT v. Vandy head-to-head.
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This X about 1,000. There's simply no comparison regarding schedule with UT and Vandy. I know SandVol referenced a SOS that showed UT #11 and Vandy #54. The other day Ainge was discussing another SOS that had UT #2 behind Purude, which was bogus, and Vandy #93.

You did a great job giving historical fact to who Vandy has played. It matters. Just simply looking at who each team played and when they played them given injury situations glaringly makes the point.

Finally, I've heard Franklin make the argument, point blank, that he's "trying to build a program" with regards to being asked about his soft schedule. He's lucked out with who he's had to play from the SEC West and he's intentionally scheduled patsies OOC...smart thing to do given who they are.

Next year, they'll only have to win 2 SEC games to get bowl eligible given how ridiculously easy their OOC schedule is..... Vandy goes to bowl games and looks like world beaters.... and UT stays home.
 
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#422
#422
daj2576 said:
I guess everyone needs to find that "man behind the curtain" and blame him.
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daj for a little more perspective on the man behind the curtain theory, watch what happens at the other UT. they just ditched a coach that was almost a clone of CPF (158 wins, 2 conference titles, 1 NC, strong recruiter, nosedive in performance over the last 4 years).

i would put my money on other UT not hiring a HC with a losing record (much less 2 consecutive HCs with losing records), and not hiring a coach with a near .500 record from the little east.
 
#423
#423
LWSVOL said:
1. first they have to get drafted.. we will see

2. under developed talent is still talent. NFL could take a flyer on someone that needs developing.

why under developed?

4 head coaches in 6 years

5 S&C coaches in 6 years

43 assistant coaches in 6 years.


anyone saying no talent doesn't understand.

anyone not recognizing under developed talent doesn't understand.

JMO
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This is the reality of the situation…but it also shows how harmful it was to give Dooley year 3.

It was a waste of a season.
 
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#424
#424
Of course Vanderbilt plays an easier schedule than we do...they're Vanderbilt. Guess what? South Alabama plays an easier schedule than we do too. And so does Western Kentucky and Arkansas State and so on and so on. But losing to any of these teams is unacceptable.
 
#425
#425
Lexvol said:
This is the reality of the situation…but it also shows how harmful it was to give Dooley year 3.

It was a waste of a season.
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Yeah, I said the exact thing at the end of his second season and pretty much everyone here said he needed more time.
 
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