Solid Recruiting Class

#76
#76
Golfprovol said:
You should go be a fan of someone else. Bashing this class before any of the players arrive on campus is just plain stupid. You have zero clue how this class will turn out. Tons of five star players bust every single year, trust the staff to fill the needs of the team.....I guarantee they know more than you!
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You tell him killer. Peay is one of my favorite posters and does a lot of good work on this forum.
 
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#79
#79
Great Class - A bit disappointed with the OL and RB groups but Defensive and Passing Game groups are stellar
 
#81
#81
GUNTERSVOL said:
Then why is it ranked in the top 10? I am a bit confused. First recruiting is much more granular than just stars as whole numbers. It is not a reach for very high three stars to exceed very low 4 stars with expected deviations of performance in both tiers. That is pretty much how more of the much larger 3 star pool got drafted than the smaller 4 star pool last year when there are more than enough 4 stars to eat up the entire draft.

The star rankings do not come with performance warranties, and I have LONG held that the star rankings should be viewed as probabilities of high level performance, not as a floor for the higher pools, and certainly not as a ceiling for the lower star pools. NFL draft results seem to back this up. Avoid the right 4 stars and select the right 3 stars and life will be good. Our staff is not blindly reaching into that 3 star pool.
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You are confused primarily because you do not appear to have read the thread in context. If you'll do that then I'll try to answer anything about my posts you still don't understand.
 
#82
#82
Carp said:
But it is true. Take Florida's top 22 (they're whole class) and our top 22, and we still better. You are penalizing us for having more recruits.

You can't compare averages accurately when the sample size isn't the same.
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You don't get "free" spots in your 85 because you have a larger class. It is "not" true. The "average" player rating is the best measure of the quality of the class you are signing ACCORDING TO the recruiting sites.

A 3.5 star average on Rivals means that you "average" better signees than a 3.0 class.

I'm not sure where you are disconnecting here.

If #1 oranges average 14 oz and #2 oranges average 11 oz then #1 oranges on average are LARGER... even if you have 500 lbs of #2 oranges and 100 lbs of #1 oranges. And if you can only inventory 1000 oranges... you get more weight with #1 oranges than you do with #2 oranges.

Again, I'm not sure what's confusing about this.
 
#84
#84
Hopeful Vol said:
Great class the best one since Butch was here. Unfortunately our main conference rivals are still ahead of us. Def bringing in better defensive talent and getting Nico was the greatest thing about this class. It just sucks when your ranked 8th in the country in recruiting but that’s still not quite good enough in the SEC
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Jesus dude you are just pathetic. It seems you think we should be on UGA and Bama level recruiting. This class is better than any Butch ever signed. You just can’t be happy.
 
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#85
#85
B81 said:
I have changed the way I look at recruiting. I pay no attention to the 3 stars. If they develop and play later, great, but most will end up transferring for playing time. You still need them to fill out the roster, but if you are planning on them to play early, you are in trouble.

If you only look at the 5 and 4 stars, you see who will be playing. We are getting 14 players in this class. Do that for 4 years in a row, and you have 60 good players.

The average ranking of the class gets watered down by the 3 stars. We have room on our roster for them, bama, ga, and clemson don’t. Hopefully some develop.
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Velus Jones ***
Cedric Tillman **
Matthew Butler ***
Theo Jackson ***
J Wright ***
J Small ***

Please tell us more about these 3 stars that are verified to have the exact same athletic ability always.

Tell us more about the 4 stars that are the exact same athletic ability and NEVER bust.

🙄
 
#86
#86
sjt18 said:
No.

I have hesitated to mention this but this class is more average than many might want to admit UNLESS they have 3* that are underrated. According to 247, UT has the 4th best class in the SEC. However if you rank by the average score the Vols have a 90.93. That moves them down to 6th. It moves them from 9th to 14th nationally.

That's still very good but unless some of those 3* turn out to be stars... it isn't as good as some seem to feel.
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And your hypocrisy shows itself. What a clown.
 
#87
#87
swampfoxfan said:
Coach Hueple is just starting to build a team that will go toe to toe with.anybody. Future classes will only get better and this one is pretty darn good.
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Can agree with most of that. But speaking dead honestly....I'd take our class over Texas A&M super class of 2022. And not because of the trouble that came from it this season.

We have top to bottom as solid a class that Tennessee football under Heupel could ever have. Because of the personality type we are bringing in and how we play the game.

Texas A&M didn't bring in one dude last season that will measure up to Nico imo.

This is the best class I've ever seen Tennessee bring in.
 
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#90
#90
sjt18 said:
You don't get "free" spots in your 85 because you have a larger class. It is "not" true. The "average" player rating is the best measure of the quality of the class you are signing ACCORDING TO the recruiting sites.

A 3.5 star average on Rivals means that you "average" better signees than a 3.0 class.

I'm not sure where you are disconnecting here.

If #1 oranges average 14 oz and #2 oranges average 11 oz then #1 oranges on average are LARGER... even if you have 500 lbs of #2 oranges and 100 lbs of #1 oranges. And if you can only inventory 1000 oranges... you get more weight with #1 oranges than you do with #2 oranges.

Again, I'm not sure what's confusing about this.
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What are you talking about "free spots" for?

Our top 22 in this year's class is currently ranked higher than UF's top 22. That's just a fact. The remaining 5 spots bring down our average below UF. If UF gets a commit or two that bump up their overall rating, that may change.
 
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#91
#91
sjt18 said:
You don't get "free" spots in your 85 because you have a larger class. It is "not" true. The "average" player rating is the best measure of the quality of the class you are signing ACCORDING TO the recruiting sites.

A 3.5 star average on Rivals means that you "average" better signees than a 3.0 class.

I'm not sure where you are disconnecting here.

If #1 oranges average 14 oz and #2 oranges average 11 oz then #1 oranges on average are LARGER... even if you have 500 lbs of #2 oranges and 100 lbs of #1 oranges. And if you can only inventory 1000 oranges... you get more weight with #1 oranges than you do with #2 oranges.

Again, I'm not sure what's confusing about this.
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xxxxxx
The problem with over simplification of math logic..... So If we only signed one 5 star and one 4 star and had an average of 4.5 our class would be better than a class of 25 4 stars? That also assumes in this discussion that the 3 lower rated guys that drag a class down have no better chance to be contributors than AIR.

Once again an over simplification in your analysis. They are not just weighing these guys. They are also applying the eye test, as they should, and on top of that they heavily use the measurements that are a year or two old to establish their initial rating even with SOME adjustments, they don't like to drop too many out of their ELITE 247, 250 or 300 and some guys that come out of nowhere are capped as high 3 stars when in fact their last year shows them to be superior prospects, but lose the body of work component.

The biggest hole in your analysis is that in the pure math model the highest rated 4 star and the lowest rated 4 star, some 200 spots down the list, are valued exactly the same. Same for the three stars. But the last 4 star is not 25% better than the first 3 star. With the application of any kind of standard deviation of accuracy it is plain that AMONG the much more massive list of high 3 stars will be better performers than the plateaued 4 stars.

All that said, the Bama's and GA's are not blindly fishing in the entire 4 star pool but in the upper reaches and that is why their classes sustain success. But after we get in line and get our also highly desired 4 stars, we are fishing down the 4 star pool and in the upper reaches of the 3 star pool where the talent levels project to be very very close by the service ratings and the risk/reward evaluations by our staff validates their probabilities and pass on some 4 stars and TARGET 3 stars. Once again this methodology is validated by NFL draft results as a valid plan of attack.

The trick is to get our talent close enough for gameplans, execution, bounces and calls to have us in the games we play uphill. Same for those with lower rated classes than ours on our schedule. Can't know till you hit the field. Our staff may well assess that the guy we sign does not project as high as some of those our competition sign, but that he closes the raw talent differential and that can be made up by effort, fit and execution. Take our oft discussed DB situation this year. I think all the guys committed help us get better, just don't know how much better and whether they are better than those signed by our competition.

Bottom line, star comparisons are a place to start, but not an end on signing day(s). Especially with brave new portal world available to fill out your roster. I will start with the position that any guy the staff DOES sign has great promise or they would pass and be looking more to the portal to complete our 85.
 
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#94
#94
I would think Squirrel White, Dylan Sampson would be great examples of how to evaluate and build a team Using ”3 star” talent . Stars are based on # of offers ….from what I understand. Hope we sign all the 3 stars that are scheduled to commit….and they wreak havoc on Kirby’s pups.
 
#95
#95
esarmstrong said:
But what is the average of the guys in our class with "5 star hearts"? I think our recruiting still has a drag on it due to the unsettled nature of the NCAA violations. I think most recruits realize that the sanctions UT faces are not likely to be harsh and not as likely to impact their futures, but there are still some we might not be reaching due to this issue. Thankfully, this should be behind us this upcoming year.
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not sure even a bowl ban should matter to top recruits as more and more star players opt out of bowl
 
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#96
#96
On Rivals, slightly over half our class is 4 and 5 stars. That's what you have to have at a minimum to be competitive and in the hunt for a title. By 2024 with the expanded playoffs we should be in the playoffs about 75 percent of the time. Tennessee is finally back!
 
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#97
#97
sjt18 said:
No.

I have hesitated to mention this but this class is more average than many might want to admit UNLESS they have 3* that are underrated. According to 247, UT has the 4th best class in the SEC. However if you rank by the average score the Vols have a 90.93. That moves them down to 6th. It moves them from 9th to 14th nationally.

That's still very good but unless some of those 3* turn out to be stars... it isn't as good as some seem to feel.
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Isn’t this class in the top 10? I mean what more could you ask for? Dear god. People get so hung up in the star rankings. If we have some star skill position, players and recruit top 10 ask talent every season wall running a great program top to bottom where players are getting developed… That is all we need to be able to compete for a championship. Michigan has annihilated Ohio State and made the playoffs for two years in a row now with fringe top 10 talent. Clemson has had some top 5 recruiting classes recently but really established themselves as a dynasty off the backs of fringe top 10 classes.
Another thing that just looking at the stars misses…the recruiting analysts look at the kids bama, uga, and Ohio state are going hard after and give those kids the “bama bump” in ratings. Some of our kids might be 25+ slots higher if they’d have connected with the bamas or uga’s earlier in the process.
This is an amazing class. If we could add another player or two and add a few kids in the ports it’ll be stunning how quickly our roster has transformed.
 
#98
#98
LittleVol said:
Velus Jones ***
Cedric Tillman **
Matthew Butler ***
Theo Jackson ***
J Wright ***
J Small ***

Please tell us more about these 3 stars that are verified to have the exact same athletic ability always.

Tell us more about the 4 stars that are the exact same athletic ability and NEVER bust.

🙄
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Look up 247 blue chip ratio. If over half of your roster is 4-5 stars you stand a chance to win the natty. Of the 4 teams in the playoffs this year only one has less than 50%, and that is TCU.

All of these players were good for us, and developed well, actually making my point, but we would have won more games if we had more talent. Coaching and scheme can make up the difference, but it is much easier to win when you have more talent.
 
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#99
#99
Golfprovol said:
You should go be a fan of someone else. Bashing this class before any of the players arrive on campus is just plain stupid. You have zero clue how this class will turn out. Tons of five star players bust every single year, trust the staff to fill the needs of the team.....I guarantee they know more than you!
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peaygolf is a huge ut fan. He was being sarcastic toward someone else
 
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#100
#100
This class is a top 10 class, how there are ranked at the end of the day is how they are ranked. We will continue to only do better. I think 2024 class will push top 5 if not squarely in the top 5. Our defensive class is very good probably top 7 or better. We have recruited our needs well. I think we did better on O-line than we think. And next year we can make running back a higher priority. We have a good very solid group of running backs coming back. Wright and Sampson are going to be very good backs. GBO!
 
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