I'd say you probably aren't far off the mark. He is very careful, but at the same time, he has to recognize the fact the space industry is only going to get larger and now is the prime opportunity to get into that market by underbidding the "traditional" crew like SpaceX did. He's still (somewhat) focused on the space tourism side and not as much with the commercial side of things. They very easily get into the heavy launch if they pushed the envelope just a tad.
Again, he's got the money to do it independently even.