Statistics tell the whole story. Independently verified?

[daj2576]

VN is the predictive system.:thumbsup:

No wonder...

 

[Rifleman]

Heres the thing that makes life so interesting. The theory of evolution claims that only the strong shall survive. Maybe so...maybe so...But the theory of competition says just because their the strong doesn't mean they cant get their ***'s kicked. Thats right. See what every long shot, come from behind underdog will tell you is this. The other guy may in fact be the favorite, the odds maybe stacked against you, fair enough. But what the odds don't know is this isn't a math test. This is a completely different kind of test. One where passion has a funny way of trumping logic. So before you step up to the starting line, before the whistle blows, and the clock starts ticking. Just remember out here the results don't always add up. No matter what the stats may say, and the experts may think, and the commentators may have predicted, when the race is on all bets are off. Don't be surprised if someone decides to flip the script and take a pass on yelling uncle. And then suddenly as the old saying goes,we got ourselves a game.

There will always be upsets. But you first need the odds against you, the math against you, for there to be what is considered an upset in the first place.

Unfortunately, I think what is often called an "upset" results from sports writers and pundits undervaluing one team and overvaluing another. This is why there needs to be a more data-driven statistical model for the relative strength of teams.

Also anyone who has seen or read "Moneyball" should know that there are always ways to even the odds when you have inferior talent.

Offensive football especially lends itself to this sort of "adaptation". Small O-line? Condition them to a superior degree, run more plays, and take advantage of their speed. Find schemes where you even the number of blockers to the number of defenders. See Oregon.

 

[GAVol]

I can be in a different zip code than you and live next door.

Well in this case, I think we're on the other side of town.

 

[livefaith]

Relative to educated guesses, is this any better?

 

[daj2576]

Relative to educated guesses, is this any better?

Far better. It is both relatively accurate (70%) and precise (repeatable).

 

[Catbone]

So, youre saying there is a 70% chance we win 7 games?

 

[Big Sal Stuntin 7]

Believe it or not, when I started crunching these numbers I was hoping it would prove that Dooley was doing the best he could with limited talent. I found the opposite and my perception of Dooley totally changed.

This is where I don't get all the Dooley hate, and how he's a bad coach. The guy took over a complete train wreck. Butch Jones has a good record from playing in the Big East. This is SEC ball, and he is coaching a team near the bottom. I just feel like people will be yelling for Coach Jones head and trashing him as a horrible coach if we don't go 8-4 or 7-5. I hope I am wrong and that Dooley was a horrible coach and that we finally got ourselves a coach. It just seems our Athletic Director let us slip so far into oblivion that I don't know if we'll ever get back to the top. But if anyone will get us there I have faith that it'll be Butch Jones. Love everything he has done for the program so far. He has done everything right, so far. I'm going to wait at least 2 years before I label Coach Jones as a bad hire.

 

[daj2576]

There will always be upsets. But you first need the odds against you, the math against you, for there to be what is considered an upset in the first place.

Unfortunately, I think what is often called an "upset" results from sports writers and pundits undervaluing one team and overvaluing another. This is why there needs to be a more data-driven statistical model for the relative strength of teams.

Also anyone who has seen or read "Moneyball" should know that there are always ways to even the odds when you have inferior talent.

Offensive football especially lends itself to this sort of "adaptation". Small O-line? Condition them to a superior degree, run more plays, and take advantage of their speed. Find schemes where you even the number of blockers to the number of defenders. See Oregon.

This is said much better than I could have.

Much of what we think of as success in sports comes from the media. For instance, it always bugs me about the ranking systems which favor wins over quality. It is perfectly conceivable for a team to play the top 5 teams, lose to all five, and still be the 6th best team in the country. In fact, a team could have a losing record due to their real strength of schedule (not some imagined strength of schedule based off of imaginary rankings) and still be ranked fairly high.

We disagree on one thing. Oregon's success is easily explained. Oregon out recruits most all of their competition by large margins. That explains their win totals, not some advanced scheme. Oregon would also be a mid-tier SEC team both by their recruited talent, and historical ability to beat teams whose talent approaches theirs. I remove USC from this evaluation because Kiff's effect on their games is just like Dooley. You can't judge USC's talent based on their negligent coach.

 

[daj2576]

This is where I don't get all the Dooley hate, and how he's a bad coach. The guy took over a complete train wreck. Butch Jones has a good record from playing in the Big East. This is SEC ball, and he is coaching a team near the bottom. I just feel like people will be yelling for Coach Jones head and trashing him as a horrible coach if we don't go 8-4 or 7-5. I hope I am wrong and that Dooley was a horrible coach and that we finally got ourselves a coach. It just seems our Athletic Director let us slip so far into oblivion that I don't know if we'll ever get back to the top. But if anyone will get us there I have faith that it'll be Butch Jones. Love everything he has done for the program so far. He has done everything right, so far. I'm going to wait at least 2 years before I label Coach Jones as a bad hire.

I think your patience will be rewarded. I also think that while attrition was relatively high from the 2009 class, Dooley still had more talent to work with than his record proved. I don't get the Dooley bashing, name calling and everything else, but the guy has a provable negative impact on his teams, going back to his LaTech days.

 

[albedo33]

Maybe they should just cancel the real games and let Lee Corso announce the calculated winners, talent-wise, of each game at 11 on Saturday morning on ESPN College Gameday!

Just being facetious..

 

[Volosaurus rex]

This is where I don't get all the Dooley hate, and how he's a bad coach. The guy took over a complete train wreck. Butch Jones has a good record from playing in the Big East. This is SEC ball, and he is coaching a team near the bottom. I just feel like people will be yelling for Coach Jones head and trashing him as a horrible coach if we don't go 8-4 or 7-5. I hope I am wrong and that Dooley was a horrible coach and that we finally got ourselves a coach. It just seems our Athletic Director let us slip so far into oblivion that I don't know if we'll ever get back to the top. But if anyone will get us there I have faith that it'll be Butch Jones. Love everything he has done for the program so far. He has done everything right, so far. I'm going to wait at least 2 years before I label Coach Jones as a bad hire.

If you value his opinion, these comments by NFL analyst Chris Mortensen, which pertain to Butch Jones, may inspire more confidence:

“Nick Saban was only 5 games over .500, 0-3 in bowl games at Mich St when LSU hired. Give a Butch Jones the Vols/SEC resources, watch out” (Chris Mortensen tweets: Nick Saban was only 5 games over .500, 0-3 in bowl games at Mich St when LSU hired. Give a Butch Jones the Vols/SEC resources, watch out. - Dec 07 -277125585107562496).

“ESPN senior NFL analyst Chris Mortensen completely backed Jones with his tweet at 1:49 p.m. that read: "Caught flak for saying Bill O'Brien was right man for Penn St. Now I'll say this: Tennessee Vols got lucky with Butch Jones #lovethehire" (Players, media tweet optimism for Butch Jones » GoVolsXtra).

"I think it is a great hire. I think, and I don't claim to be a college football expert, but it seems like all of the coaches that I have been around Butch Jones is one that is great at building a team. People get caught up in recruiting and all of those aspects of coaching. Butch is great at taking those recruits and building the individual and building accountability. Making players better teammates and creating togetherness and a bigger purpose. Coach Jones is a master of that. He is a master motivator a master team builder and a master at togetherness among teams. He is great at helping each individual with their own personal growth and in the end that helps the overall cause of the team. Being around his teams they have a great sense of togetherness. For the state of Tennessee, Butch Jones was a great hire" (What They're Saying About Butch Jones - UTSPORTS.COM - University of Tennessee Athletics).

 

[sjt18]

This is where I don't get all the Dooley hate, and how he's a bad coach. The guy took over a complete train wreck. Butch Jones has a good record from playing in the Big East. This is SEC ball, and he is coaching a team near the bottom. I just feel like people will be yelling for Coach Jones head and trashing him as a horrible coach if we don't go 8-4 or 7-5. I hope I am wrong and that Dooley was a horrible coach and that we finally got ourselves a coach. It just seems our Athletic Director let us slip so far into oblivion that I don't know if we'll ever get back to the top. But if anyone will get us there I have faith that it'll be Butch Jones. Love everything he has done for the program so far. He has done everything right, so far. I'm going to wait at least 2 years before I label Coach Jones as a bad hire.

Facts relevant to this statement:

A- Dooley was a bad football coach.

B- Dooley inherited a train wreck.

C- Jones does not inherit a train wreck... the roster is better by a wide measure.

D- That BAD HC from A... took a worse team vs a schedule no less difficult and won 6 games. He came two fluke plays from winning 8.

E- If Jones does not win more than six games... he HAS underachieved.

Nope... I'm not done.

F- Whether you like Jones or are all hyped up by him now or not, his task in '14 will be FAR tougher than '13. Oregon is dropped but Oklahoma is on...no drop off in schedule. His roster gets younger AND thinner before it begins to get better.

G- If he's a six win coach with THIS team... he's a 4 or 5 win coach with the '14 roster.

H- CONCLUSION: Six wins this year, 5 wins next year... and he's on the hottest seat in CFB in '15 with a team very likely to still be young and thin. HIS FUTURE AT UT IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS THIS YEAR.

 

[sjt18]

BTW, I have quickly growing confidence that Jones is indeed a very good coach who will have no trouble meeting that 7 win mark... probably 8. I think he will follow that up with 6 wins plus a bowl and begin to compete for the SEC after that.

I like the analysis behind the OP... I came to much the same conclusion by listening and looking at methods plus a respect for UT's talent that I think most are short changing.

 

[daj2576]

Facts relevant to this statement:

A- Dooley was a bad football coach.

B- Dooley inherited a train wreck.

C- Jones does not inherit a train wreck... the roster is better by a wide measure.

D- That BAD HC from A... took a worse team vs a schedule no less difficult and won 6 games. He came two fluke plays from winning 8.

E- If Jones does not win more than six games... he HAS underachieved.

Nope... I'm not done.

F- Whether you like Jones or are all hyped up by him now or not, his task in '14 will be FAR tougher than '13. Oregon is dropped but Oklahoma is on...no drop off in schedule. His roster gets younger AND thinner before it begins to get better.

G- If he's a six win coach with THIS team... he's a 4 or 5 win coach with the '14 roster.

H- CONCLUSION: Six wins this year, 5 wins next year... and he's on the hottest seat in CFB in '15 with a team very likely to still be young and thin. HIS FUTURE AT UT IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS THIS YEAR.

I think you are projecting out farther in F,G, and H than anyone's data can allow. You are making assumptions on attrition, you are making assumptions on recruiting, you are doing that not only for Tennessee's situation but also every other team on Tennessee's schedule, and you are doing that for the following two seasons.

 

[chuck0303]

Found a great quote as I peruse this website. This is something that I have been screaming at the top of my lungs for awhile now:

"Lane Kiffin – Stewart has him in the bottom 5 and I have zero complaint with that other than he should be the #1 of the bottom 5. Lane has under performed his talent at EVERY job he has held as head coach. Not one single year as a positive head coach game effect. Over the last 3 years he has the worst game effect per season of any coach."

Boom. Told ya.

OK, I'm not doubting your conclusions, and I also did not like the way Kiffin left UT for USC, however, let me remind people that we were supposed to have been blown out by Florida, blown out, and we only lost by 10 pts at THEIR place. A loss yes, but if you recall Urban Meyer had to apologize to his fan base for not blowing TN out of the water. How often does that happen? Secondly, we also only lost to Bama at THEIR place, by what, 1 or 2 pts. Yes, we had our chances, but Kiffin could hardly go out on the field and block in the line & kick the field goal himself. And before you completely bury Dooley, he did have to take some extraordinary chances I think given the talent he was left with, particularly in year 1, however, without that snafu we would have beaten LSU at THEIR place. Fact is we couldn't stop their running back during that whole game. All I'm saying is it wasn't all bad and let's not forget what could have been. It will be interesting to see how Kiffin does now that his dad has gone to the Dallas Cowboys. He may be better off. There's no place for him to hide from the record he gets at USC, good or bad. I do think Coach Jones is the right person and he will bring us back into contention faster than most people think. Oregon will be tough because they are so fast and quick. If our defense can stop the big play we should be in it.

 

[sjt18]

I think you are projecting out farther in F,G, and H than anyone's data can allow.

That wasn't statistical. That was logical and experiential. A coach entering his third year at any major program with a losing record is in trouble... and it really doesn't matter if he was left in a really bad hole. Dooley was a bad coach but that really wasn't why he was on a hot seat before last fall. He was losing. Most other things can be forgiven... but that can't.

You are making assumptions on attrition, you are making assumptions on recruiting, you are doing that not only for Tennessee's situation but also every other team on Tennessee's schedule, and you are doing that for the following two seasons.

No. Not really. We know right now plus or minus a JUCO or two who will be UT's upper classmen in '14 and '15. Skill either comes from experience or talent or both. Great recruiting can mitigate but it cannot eliminate the drop in roster quality from this year to next. I am confident that this class will be a good one. After that it starts to depend on turning the sales pitch into reality on the field. That's why I can't really draw much of an opinion on whether he would be able to save himself in '15 or not.

All I am doing is saying A) the roster this fall will be as talented and more experienced than the one next fall, B) if he can't win with this roster then he's even less likely to win with that one, AND therefore C) a subpar performance this fall is very likely to have him on a hot seat going into the season two years from now.

 

[VFL1800FPD]

OK, I'm not doubting your conclusions, and I also did not like the way Kiffin left UT for USC, however, let me remind people that we were supposed to have been blown out by Florida, blown out, and we only lost by 10 pts at THEIR place. A loss yes, but if you recall Urban Meyer had to apologize to his fan base for not blowing TN out of the water. How often does that happen? Secondly, we also only lost to Bama by at THEIR place, what, 1 or 2 pts. Yes, we had our chances, but Kiffin could hardly go out on the field and block & kick the field goal himself. And before you completely bury Dooley, he did have to take some extraordinary chances I think given the talent he was left with, particularly in year 1, however, without that snafu we would have beaten LSU at THEIR place. All I'm saying is it wasn't all bad and let's not forget what could have been. It will be interesting to see how Kiffin does now that his dad has gone to the Dallas Cowboys. He may be better off. There's no place for him to hide from the record he gets at USC, good or bad.

Dude, dooley was straight up incompetent. The team making the same fundamental mistakes for three years sealed that deal. I don't care what the odds were, or how good the teams we played were, we never had the heart to win the big ones, and we played down to the opponents level in the other ones (Akron, mizzou, etc). Sorry if I missed your point, but every time I see someone making an excuse for Dooley, I have to say something. Gbo.

 

[chuck0303]

Also, I saw some predictions on CBS today and it was interesting to note teams that were listed in the top 10 we will be playing this year, Oregon, Bama, Georgia, Gamecocks, and maybe one other but 3 of those were in the top 5. That's a tall order for any team/coach. By the same token, to be the best you should play the best. I also noticed that they had Ohio State as the #1 team by most predictions and I'm sure that is because Urban Meyer is there, but no matter, play Bama, LSU, GA, or S. Carolina and see how they fare. Whack!!!!! SEC Baby!!!

 

[chuck0303]

Dude, dooley was straight up incompetent. The team making the same fundamental mistakes for three years sealed that deal. I don't care what the odds were, or how good the teams we played were, we never had the heart to win the big ones, and we played down to the opponents level in the other ones (Akron, mizzou, etc). Sorry if I missed your point, but every time I see someone making an excuse for Dooley, I have to say something. Gbo.

Obviously, he didn't get the job done--concede the point. We all know it's the results that count. I just think that he gets more blame than he should, given the circumstances. Other than the offense, did we really improve that much? Not really. You can't say we couldn't light up the scoreboard with Bray, Rogers, etc., but you also have to play SEC Defense. Fact is, he didn't get the complete job done and that's what happens to whoever is in the driver's seat, they get the credit and the blame and they're well paid for it. I'm not an insider so I don't profess to know all the scoop.

 

[Catbone]

Facts relevant to this statement:

A- Dooley was a bad football coach.

B- Dooley inherited a train wreck.

C- Jones does not inherit a train wreck... the roster is better by a wide measure.

D- That BAD HC from A... took a worse team vs a schedule no less difficult and won 6 games. He came two fluke plays from winning 8.

E- If Jones does not win more than six games... he HAS underachieved.

Nope... I'm not done.

F- Whether you like Jones or are all hyped up by him now or not, his task in '14 will be FAR tougher than '13. Oregon is dropped but Oklahoma is on...no drop off in schedule. His roster gets younger AND thinner before it begins to get better.

G- If he's a six win coach with THIS team... he's a 4 or 5 win coach with the '14 roster.

H- CONCLUSION: Six wins this year, 5 wins next year... and he's on the hottest seat in CFB in '15 with a team very likely to still be young and thin. HIS FUTURE AT UT IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS THIS YEAR.

I agree a lot of this, but I think 15' will be better than what you say.

 

[sjt18]

Also, I saw some predictions on CBS today and it was interesting to note teams that were listed in the top 10 we will be playing this year, Oregon, Bama, Georgia, Gamecocks, and maybe one other but 3 of those were in the top 5. That's a tall order for any team/coach. By the same token, to be the best you should play the best. I also noticed that they had Ohio State as the #1 team by most predictions and I'm sure that is because Urban Meyer is there, but no matter, play Bama, LSU, GA, or S. Carolina and see how they fare. Whack!!!!! SEC Baby!!!

UT had LSU, Bama, and Arkansas in '10 to go with their East schedule.

Jones should win 7 plus with this roster.

 

[sjt18]

I agree a lot of this, but I think 15' will be better than what you say.

Not really saying anything about '15. Dooley's last class wasn't good though. Four of the 10 4* from that class are already gone. McCullers will be gone as well. Gray, Sentimore, and Watson are gone as well.

The upperclassmen will be what's left of that class and this year's class. The class he's building this year will be critical to '15 regardless of what happens this fall. There's a much lower chance of attrition from it if Jones exceeds expectations this fall.

IOW's, this year proves or disproves he can win with somewhat lesser talent. He will deal with the same problem the following two years.

There are so many angles to this... they all point to this fall being very critical to Jones' survival.

 

[Ten_Titans]

Many of you read my discussions on talent evaluations as a way to predict football games (generally: 2/3 of the time, a four year trailing talent average can predict seasonal outcomes).

Some of you even participated in some threads where I developed and tested this process (thank you for the mature discussion and insight).

Today, I stumbled across a website where someone is using a very similar system to the one that I tripped upon.

Here is his page dedicated to UT evaluations.-->Tennenessee Vols 2013 Football Preview

Notice some similarities to things that we have already discussed, 1) He predicts UT will go 7-5 or 8-4 this year, exactly the same prediction that my numbers show, 2) He says that Jones had a +1 effect at Cincinnati. My numbers suggest it was +2 if you average in the first year where he was +0, or +3 if you consider his first year at Cincy to be an outlyer., 3) He suggests that UT v. Oregon will be a much closer game than most believe. Ditto.

I found this website to be fascinating, and also a little humbling. I thought I had stumbled upon something really unique. This guy has been doing something very similar for several years, apparently. I also laughed when I read through some of his statements about how many people completely reject this system, no matter how strong the data.

He also adds more and other details about the likelihood of success for a first year coach. This is definitely an interesting read.

There are three types of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

My brother is a statistician for an Archeology firm, and even he will tell you Mark Twain's comment is true.

There are many sites and companies that do this, (lately impart to the gambling community), but it is no more than glorified guess work.

And no offense to whatever it is you do. Statistics is one of the most fascinating branches of mathematics, and it is certainly interesting to run trough numbers and see what they say.

But I most instances statistics are more biased than any half wit on ESPN or anywhere else.

 

[sjt18]

Dooley's fate was sealed with the Sunseri hire. With Wilcox, UT wins 9 or 10 games. In the long run, that would have been terrible for the program because Dooley would have been kept... in spite of not being a coach capable of winning the SEC.

The O got better then worse then MUCH better. The D got better for two years then got dramatically worse with Sunseri. A HC's primary job is to bring all the pieces together.

 

[sjt18]

There are many sites and companies that do this, (lately impart to the gambling community), but it is no more than glorified guess work.

And no offense to whatever it is you do. Statistics is one of the most fascinating branches of mathematics, and it is certainly interesting to run trough numbers and see what they say.

But I most instances statistics are more biased than any half wit on ESPN or anywhere else.

:ermm::ermm: ....................................... :no1:

Tell you what. Let's meet back here in say 3 months and check to see how many teams in the bottom half of the SEC statistically are in the top 2 of their division.

You can mishandle statistics but they provide a reliable tool for establishing probabilities. The better they match history... the better you can expect them to predict the future.


What you posted basically amounts to an assertion that understanding history is not important to making good decisions in the future. I suppose corporate spending on statistics is a waste of time? I guess those marketing guys should stop it too, right?


Archaeology is a bad example btw. By and large, they very often use faulty premises and assumptions about events so far in the distant past that they truly are guessing.